Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW JUST EAST OF BARBUDA HAS
SENT A 70 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE FROM
THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND FADE BY
SATURDAY LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE UNMOVED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
RIDGING WILL RE-DEVELOP FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND HISPANIOLA NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND
PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL REFORM OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. A REX BLOCK WILL FORM NEAR 49 WEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS INCREASES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT RAPID DRYING.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL FADE
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRESH AND STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EMERGE FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY TO RE-STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND QUANTITY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS WITH THE WETTEST AREAS ON
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE INTERIOR IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS WAS SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH TOO DRY IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND DID NOT WELL REPRESENT THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS
EXPERIENCED IN THE AREA. SINCE MIDNIGHT AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH
WERE OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SAN JUAN RECORDED A LITTLE OVER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH WHILE CHARLOTTE AMALIE RECORDED JUST UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF RAIN. DURING THE AFTERNOON STRONGER SHOWERS DEVELOPED
OVER MAYAGUEZ. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
GUSTS OF WIND. SAINT THOMAS SAW A GUST OF 41 MPH A LITTLE AFTER 5
AM AST. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED A STREAM OF MOISTURE POINTED
DIRECTLY AT SAINT JOHN AND INTO PUERTO RICO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN GOOD MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND KEEP QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO
ALMOST 2 INCHES BY 20/18Z...SATURDAY...AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED...BUT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT. AFTER SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AND
THE LOCAL AREA WILL RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH ONLY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF
VCSH/BRIEF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE ONLY SOMEWHAT AS FRESH TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OPEN AND
UN-SHELTERED WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 86 / 60 60 60 70
STT 77 88 78 87 / 50 80 80 80

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
930 PM AST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT RETROGRESSES TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN BY FRI. MID-LEVEL
INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT.
STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH TO MAINTAIN VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN-TUE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW AN OVERALL DRYING TREND THROUGH THU
NIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN EARNEST FRI INTO SAT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROF MOVING FROM THE EAST. VERY WET
PERIOD APPEARS ON TAP FRI AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
THINGS DRY OUT RAPIDLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN UNDER BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE
EXPECTED MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE OTHERWISE
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ALL OF NEXT WEEK BUT WINDY SUN THROUGH
TUE.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PERIODS OF VCSH/BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
MAINLY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS. THEN...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ BETWEEN 20/18Z-23Z AND MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL. EAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...INCREASING AFT
20/12Z BTWN 10 AND 20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 87 75 86 / 30 20 60 70
STT 81 87 78 87 / 30 20 80 80

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY
FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST FRI NIGHT. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO REACH 2 INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE USVI AND THEN EASTERN PR SHOULD SEE THE 2
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IT IS NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY THAT THE MOISTURE COLUMN GETS PAST THE 500 MB...KEEPING
MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HOWEVER DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT WILL BE DRY...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
MAY CAUSE THE NUMBER OF PASSING SHOWERS TO INCREASE GRADUALLY ON
FRIDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THEN ON
SATURDAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CAUSE MORE RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVE DRYING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH PATCHES OF MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS
WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. AFT 20/17Z SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO..AFFECTING JMZ THROUGH
ABOUT 20/22Z. EASTERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY SAT THEN STRENGTHENING
20-25 KT SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS
5-7 FT THROUGH FRI THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SAT THROUGH TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 74 / 40 60 70 70
STT 87 77 87 77 / 40 80 80 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW OVER GUADELOUPE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL
WEAKEN WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 30
DEGREES NORTH MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THAT HIGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND A TUTT LOW WILL FORM SOUTH OF IT FORMING A REX LOW
ON WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN LIMITED THEREAFTER.

AT LOWER LEVELS...FADING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRADE WIND FLOW CARRIED MANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE CARIBBEAN LEAVING LIGHT
AMOUNTS OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW PLACES IN EAST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS
WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. AM USING A SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED NAM5 MODEL POPS AS THIS WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL OVER
PUERTO RICO...BUT PROVED A LITTLE TOO WET FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WHERE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FELL. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AND PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
RISES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRIER
AIR MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD PROVE TO BE A PRETTY NICE
DAY. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BRING SIMILAR SHOWERS IN TRADE WINDS
MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING
THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 21/06Z
SPREADING THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR THE REST OF
TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS.
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EXCEPT FOR LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER PR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
TONIGHT...BUT SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
ATLANTIC...ANEGADA PASSAGE AND SOUTHERN LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
IMPROVEMENT MAY NOT COME UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 86 / 60 90 90 90
STT 77 88 77 87 / 70 70 70 70

[Gustywind]

Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica as strong showers and tstorms are expected since yesterday night till Friday night.
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
932 PM AST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LEEWARDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL
AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH MON AS CNTRL ATLC UPPER LOW RETROGRESSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY...BLENDED TPW AND LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE ALL SHOW SHARP DRYING AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. SO
UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND IMPROVE SKY CVR
GRIDS. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY FRI THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MAINLY OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR FROM AREAS FROM ABOUT
ARECIBO EAST TO FAJARDO AND USVI. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVR
THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND NORTHEAST PR WHERE STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY
OUT RAPIDLY LATE SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER SUN AND MON WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS AND ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY ON MON BUT
OVERALL FAIR WX CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS MID TO LATE
WEEK AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Rain is expected Friday thru Saturday in the Eastern Caribbean as a trough moves thru the area so be aware of any flooding that might occur in your area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AS SOON AS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED BEST DYNAMICS REMAINING
OVER THE WATERS...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY...WITH FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.

THEREFORE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS
UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR 12 KNOTS...BUT ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ENHANCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS E
PR...MAY RESULT IN RAPID RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS
WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER
LEVELS...MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
THEREFORE...SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...EXPECT A
GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PR...IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PR AND USVI TAF SITE
OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS. INCREASING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING THROUGH THE USVI AND EASTERN PR THIS
MORNING INTENSIFYING AFTER 21/18Z WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FOR
BRIEF PERIODS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS. SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN 5-7 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT THROUGH MON NEAR 22 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING
6-8 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RETROGRESSING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL REACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SLOWLY
WEAKENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PROLONGED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED BY LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO MAY RESULT IN
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WITH URBAN
FLOODING LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 85 77 / 90 90 90 40
STT 87 74 87 76 / 70 70 70 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT LOW ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF
SAINT JOHN WILL DISSIPATE INTO A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AS A LOW CUTS OFF ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FADES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT A HIGH FRESH OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS IS BECOMING WETTER TONIGHT AS IT FORECASTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO RISE CLOSE TO 2.2 INCHES BY 22/06Z TONIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE STILL VERY WEAK TO MISSING
AFTER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MOST
OF EASTERN QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES RECEIVED RAIN. SHOWERS WERE ALSO
FALLING IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AT 3 PM AST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
INCREASE CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT WESTERN PUERTO RICO STILL
HAS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS THERE
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH BETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPS BELOW 1.3 INCHES SEVERAL TIMES NEXT WEEK...
THE SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS SO TYPICAL OF NOVEMBER SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE USUAL PLACES IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE COOLER AND HOLD CLOSE TO NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS AT TNCM/TKPK. INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SPREADING THROUGH THE
USVI AND EASTERN PR WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. EASTERLY SFC
WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE TAKEN SEAS DOWN FOR A LITTLE WHILE OVER ALL OF THE
AREA AS SEAS OBSERVED ARE NOT MEASURING UP TO THE MODEL FORECASTS
AT THIS TIME. SEAS WILL STILL INCREASE FROM THEIR PRESENT STATE
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER MORE THAN
JUST THE ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER TONIGHT DUE TO AN INCREASE IN THE
TRADE WINDS AS THE HIGH INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 84 77 84 / 90 90 30 30
STT 77 87 77 88 / 70 70 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
638 PM AST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
WESTWARD NEXT 24 HRS FOCUSING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ERN PR OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ON THE RISE THIS
EVENING AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW AND GOES SOUNDER DATA WITH
T-STORMS RECENTLY DEVELOPING OVR FAJARDO WHICH DUMPED 1.14 INCHES
IN ONE HOUR. LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL TROF
AND 850 MB JET THAT WILL FOCUS THE RAINFALL ON THE EASTERN THIRD
OF PR. MODELS SHOW A 6-HR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT OVER
THIS AREA WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE IN A VERY SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BUT LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO WANE RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z. SO THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z. FAIR WX CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FIRST UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND THEN UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO A RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUE ALONG COASTLINES AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TNCM
AND TKPK OVERNIGHT. DETERIORATING WX CONDS AT PR AND USVI TAF SITES
AFT 22/03Z TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AND IFR CONDS
ASSOCIATED TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH. SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22/03-15Z...THIS MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. EASTERLY SFC WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY ON WED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 84 77 84 / 80 70 30 30
STT 77 87 77 88 / 70 70 20 20

[abajan]

LOTS of rain in Barbados today. It started around 10:00 o'clock last night and continued well into the afternoon. Around 6:20 AM it was announced that all schools would be closed for the day. There was much flooding and apparently even (according to one StormCarib report) some blown off roofs and fallen trees.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WX CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS RETROGRESSING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEAKENS. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. MIGRATORY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. THEREFORE...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING WESTERN PUERTO RICO BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAST MOVERS UNDER A STEERING FLOW NEAR
12 KNOTS...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. BUT...ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...
ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RAPID
RISES ALONG RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS WITH URBAN FLOODING LIKELY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO UNTIL 11 AM AST.

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MOISTURE EROSION EXPECTED AT MID LEVELS. AT LOWER LEVELS...
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL VALUES. THEREFORE...SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO...
IF ANY.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA CURRENTLY MOVG INTO USVI...EAST AND
NORTH PR. HEAVIEST SHRA HV LWRD CIGS TO 2 KFT...VSBY TO 1SM AND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. MOST WL NOT BE THAT XTRM BUT IFR IS PSBL FOR ALL TAF
SITES TIL LATE AFT XCP PROB TJPS ALG WI OBSCD MTNS. ISOLD/SCT BRF
SHRA RTN TONITE XCP DRY AT TJPS/TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS SFC-FL150 E 15-20
KT INCR TO 18-28 KT LATE TDY AND TONITE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS
20-23 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT AMZ745.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 84 76 / 70 20 30 30
STT 87 77 88 77 / 70 40 30 30

[Gustywind]

LOTS of rain in Barbados today. It started around 10:00 o'clock last night and continued well into the afternoon. Around 6:20 AM it was announced that all schools would be closed for the day. There was much flooding and apparently even (according to one StormCarib report) some blown off roofs and fallen trees.

be aware Abajan!!!

[Gustywind]

Good news here as... Martinica have back off the yellow alert yesterday afternoon and now Guadeloupe this morning. No report of damages even minor but very localized flooding in some areas.
Here is a recap form our local Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe: http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

Rainfall estimations

From Thursday 5AM to Saturday 5AM ( 48 hours):

105 mm at Pointe Noire
61 mm à Saint-Claude
57 mm at Anse-Bertrand
60 mm at Moule

Between Thursday morning 6AM to 9AM :
23 mm at Anse Bertrand Hippodrome and at Moule,
14 mm at Saint-Claude
15 mm at Capesterre

Gustywinds estimations

Till 91 km/h Thursday at Désirade, 72 km/h at Marie-Galante.

MeteoFrance web site Antilles Guyane : http://www.meteofrance.gp

[abajan]

LOTS of rain in Barbados today. It started around 10:00 o'clock last night and continued well into the afternoon. Around 6:20 AM it was announced that all schools would be closed for the day. There was much flooding and apparently even (according to one StormCarib report) some blown off roofs and fallen trees.

be aware Abajan!!!

Thanks Gusty

Believe it or not, it's raining heavily again!

[abajan]

Good news here as... Martinica have back off the yellow alert yesterday afternoon and now Guadeloupe this morning. No report of damages even minor but very localized flooding in some areas.
Here is a recap form our local Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe: http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

Rainfall estimations

From Thursday 5AM to Saturday 5AM ( 48 hours):

105 mm at Pointe Noire
61 mm à Saint-Claude
57 mm at Anse-Bertrand
60 mm at Moule

Between Thursday morning 6AM to 9AM :
23 mm at Anse Bertrand Hippodrome and at Moule,
14 mm at Saint-Claude
15 mm at Capesterre

Gustywinds estimations

Till 91 km/h Thursday at Désirade, 72 km/h at Marie-Galante.

MeteoFrance web site Antilles Guyane : http://www.meteofrance.gp

Wow! Those wind gusts were pretty high

[Gustywind]

LOTS of rain in Barbados today. It started around 10:00 o'clock last night and continued well into the afternoon. Around 6:20 AM it was announced that all schools would be closed for the day. There was much flooding and apparently even (according to one StormCarib report) some blown off roofs and fallen trees.

be aware Abajan!!!

Thanks Gusty

Believe it or not, it's raining heavily again!

OK let's hope that things will stop today.

[Gustywind]

Good news here as... Martinica have back off the yellow alert yesterday afternoon and now Guadeloupe this morning. No report of damages even minor but very localized flooding in some areas.
Here is a recap form our local Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe: http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf

Rainfall estimations

From Thursday 5AM to Saturday 5AM ( 48 hours):

105 mm at Pointe Noire
61 mm à Saint-Claude
57 mm at Anse-Bertrand
60 mm at Moule

Between Thursday morning 6AM to 9AM :
23 mm at Anse Bertrand Hippodrome and at Moule,
14 mm at Saint-Claude
15 mm at Capesterre

Gustywinds estimations

Till 91 km/h Thursday at Désirade, 72 km/h at Marie-Galante.

MeteoFrance web site Antilles Guyane : http://www.meteofrance.gp

Wow! Those wind gusts were pretty high

Very very high Abajan what a season for the east carib!

[Gustywind]

Abajan what are the latest estimations in your area in terms of rainfall?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1121 AM AST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INSTABILITY CREATED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH SOME OF
THEM REACHING THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...EXPECT
A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR EASTERN EASTERN PUERTO RICO WAS CANCELLED.

[abajan]

Abajan what are the latest estimations in your area in terms of rainfall?

That's a good question. It's hard to tell because the airport is one of the driest places on the island and their rainfall figures don't accurately reflect the true picture of what's happening elsewhere. Nevertheless, according to our Met Office, rainfall recorded at the airport for the 12 hour period ending at 6 o'clock this morning was 17.4 mm; for November so far, 205.3 mm, and for the year, 961.7 mm.

Source: http://www.barbadosweather.org/