Texas Fall-2014

[gboudx]

Severe weather update from jeff:

***Severe weather outbreak including tornadoes possible Saturday across much of SE TX.***

Strong storm system off the west coast currently will dive rapidly SSE and into the AZ/NM region on Friday and then sweep across TX on Saturday. Low level southerly winds have already returned to the region today ushering in much warmer temperatures and starting to increase moisture levels. Stronger moisture advection will begin on Thursday and stronger yet by Friday with increasing rain chances starting Thursday night. Lead short wave ejecting across on Friday with a chances of showers and thunderstorms in the warm air advection regime.

Concerning period is starting to key on Saturday afternoon as a powerful upper level system sweeps across central TX. Unstable warm sector air mass will likely have spread far inland by Saturday morning with dewpoints in the mid 60’s as maritime tropical air mass makes a return to the region. Impressive wind energy will come to bear on this unstable atmosphere as the low level jet is overrun by a strong mid level jet streak. This will result in strong low level turning with height and favorable low level shear for updraft rotation. Instability looks a little better today (800-1500 J/kg) which appears possible if not likely given the timing of the system in the mid to late afternoon allowing surface temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70’s. I am concerned with the forecast low level shear values and long curved forecasted hodographs suggesting significant supercell potential in the warm sector ahead of the main band of thunderstorms. Tornado outbreaks almost always have these leading supercell storms in the warm sector that tend to produce the vast amount of tornadoes and damage. The GFS does attempt to develop warm sector supercells in a convergent band ahead of the main line of storms Saturday afternoon. We are still talking about 72 hours out which is far out in severe weather time frames, but the confidence in the event and model agreement is fairly high at this time range. With that, SPC has already placed a Day 4 slight risk outlook for all SE TX and if parameters continue to look favorable into Thursday and Friday an upgrade to a moderate risk is certainly possible.

Main threats appear to be tornadoes and wind damage in the noon to midnight time period on Saturday. I am tempted to favor the tornado threat higher in the southern 2/3rds of the area where instability is forecasted to be strongest, but since we are 72 hours out I think a general widespread threat is best at the moment.

This system and its severe weather impacts bears close watch especially on the tornado threat.

Note: record low of 30 degrees was established this morning at BUSH IAH breaking the 111 year old record of 31.

[JDawg512]

I wasn't born till 1980 so it's interesting to look over what happened during the 70s weatherwise
Thanks very much for sharing that wxman57!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

It's really something to consider that some areas of Buffalo are receiving in one week the same amount of average snowfall they may see in one year. And Buffalo has been through some amazingly bad winters with snow. So, this is historical.

Or, put a different way, some areas of Buffalo are receiving in one week more snowfall than Austin will receive in your lifetime.

[TheProfessor]

That goes for just about anyone in Texas except maybe the Panhandle.

[aggiecutter]

Todd Warren, meteorologist at Channel 6-NBC in Shreveport, agrees with the EURO weeklies for December. He thinks the latest PDO, AMO, and ENSO all point to the analog years of 97,87, and 57, not 76. During those Decembers, there was no snow reported in the Ark-La-Tex region. Overall, he thinks temperatures will be at or just slightly above normal. BTW, based on the composite temperatures for those 3 years, Texas was well below normal temperature wise, but warmed up in December.

The link:
http://www.arklatexhomepage.com/winteroutlook

[KatDaddy]

Models continue to advertise a potentially significant severe weather threat for this weekend across a large portion of TX. I would not be surprised to see a Moderate Risk in later SPC forecasts for S Central and SE TX.
This afternoon's Houston-Galveston NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook sums it up well:


THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS INCREASING AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE STATE SATURDAY. AS OF TODAY…IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD COME
IN THE FORM OF DISCRETE CELLS FORMING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY. THESE CELLS COULD EVOLVE INTO A MORE ORGANIZED DOWNSTREAM SQUALL LINE FEATURE THAT WOULD AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH THE SECONDARY THREAT OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN EPISODES LEADING TO TEMPORARILY FLOODING ISSUES. THE PROGRESSIVE EASTERN MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD HAVE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD BE AWARE AND BE PREPARED TO MONITOR AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCE SATURDAY.

[BigB0882]

Todd Warren, meteorologist at Channel 6-NBC in Shreveport, agrees with the EURO weeklies for December. He thinks the latest PDO, AMO, and ENSO all point to the analog years of 97,87, and 57, not 76. During those Decembers, there was no snow reported in the Ark-La-Tex region. Overall, he thinks temperatures will be at or just slightly above normal. BTW, based on the composite temperatures for those 3 years, Texas was well below normal temperature wise, but warmed up in December.

The link:
http://www.arklatexhomepage.com/winteroutlook

What do others think of this? What were Novembers like during those years, we've already had lots of cold and snow in the Ark-La-Tex region. Was January and February just as warm as December during those winters? I already mentioned I am not a huge fan of cold but I am a huge fan of snow and winter weather so I'd prefer 76 to be an analog as it makes following the weather much more exciting in the winter than a winter of normal temps.

Also, is the severe weather threat going to move Eastward into Louisiana? I am in SELA and wondered if we will also be in the area of severe weather or if we will just get some rain.

[Ntxw]

Todd Warren, meteorologist at Channel 6-NBC in Shreveport, agrees with the EURO weeklies for December. He thinks the latest PDO, AMO, and ENSO all point to the analog years of 97,87, and 57, not 76. During those Decembers, there was no snow reported in the Ark-La-Tex region. Overall, he thinks temperatures will be at or just slightly above normal. BTW, based on the composite temperatures for those 3 years, Texas was well below normal temperature wise, but warmed up in December.

The link:
http://www.arklatexhomepage.com/winteroutlook

What do others think of this? What were Novembers like during those years, we've already had lots of cold and snow in the Ark-La-Tex region. Was January and February just as warm as December during those winters? I already mentioned I am not a huge fan of cold but I am a huge fan of snow and winter weather so I'd prefer 76 to be an analog as it makes following the weather much more exciting in the winter than a winter of normal temps.

Also, is the severe weather threat going to move Eastward into Louisiana? I am in SELA and wondered if we will also be in the area of severe weather or if we will just get some rain.

Just my personal opinion, I'm not a meteorologist as the author is. But one has to look at all things equal and not just ENSO, or the Nino. There are other forces at play that can change the outcome. No ENSO event is created equal. The weeklies are a long range guidance and I mean long, more than two weeks. We know how they are and as srain mentioned they showed November being a torch. That busted unimaginably back in October. You start with the ENSO state as a background influence, it is a weak Nino currently. That automatically eliminates 1957 and 1997 which were strong Nino's that blow-torched Canada and were not -AO winters. It will take too long to bring back all the posts we've made gradually since early fall on the indicators but if you read back you will see why certain years and analogs fits and why those others do not. We joke around with wxman57 about his hatred for cold and stuff but he knows his stuff. He doesn't throw out stuff like 1976, as he doesn't overplay hurricane seasons, unless he believes it.

Every year we try to figure out what is the dominant factor through winter, usually something sticks out and then feedback occurs. This year is the -AO, it has been persistent, the SAI is evidence.

[Ntxw]

And then you have this. For weeks and weeks 1976 keeps showing up in the analogs, it's not always the top but it's been consistently there the most. Snow grew so fast last month, matched only by 1976. The past week we had the coldest period, coldest average of any mid November day since...1976. So what evidence is there the other years are better than 1976 when looked at as a whole? PDO, ENSO, AMO, well all that also matched 1976 not just those other years.

[Texas Snowman]

No offense to the Met in Texarkana, but I'd take the thoughts of Wxman57 (even when they go against what I would hope to see), Ntxw and Portastorm over any other weather person I know when it comes to winter weather in Texas. And so far, they appear to be in the camp of a winter to remember for cold weather and potential storminess.

Whether we see that happen - and a repeat of 1976 and its historic type of winter weather - I guess only time will tell. But so far, the trend is certainly in that direction from where I'm sitting. All you have to do is look at how my wood pile has shrunk over this past week - the wood burning stove has gotten a very good late fall workout.

And as Ntxw alluded to, the idea that this November would be warm, well, that idea is now kindling in many other fireplaces burning across a cold North America. For instance, in addition to our cold weather, the frigid cold across the Midwest and the epic lake effect snow in Buffalo, it is 27 degrees RIGHT NOW in Tallahassee, Florida at 12:04 a.m. their time.

That's mid-January stuff in mid-November, a chilly November that several weeks ago, wasn't being called for.

I'm not sure I can ever recall such deep cold so far south at this time of the year.

[Ntxw]

It's not to say December is guaranteed cold either. Even in 1976 and 1977 December was actually quite typical nothing out of the ordinary really. We'll have to see what the AO does. Every winter has that period of relaxation we'll have to see.

[KatDaddy]

A 30% chance of showers today and tomorrow as the SE flow brings warming temps and GOM moisture inland across TX. Saturday continues to point to an active weather day across Central, S Central, and SE TX with the SPC upgrading the Slight Risk area to an Enhanced Risk. Damaging winds, large hail, and few tornadoes will also be possible. The primary threat will looks to be damaging straight line winds as storms possibly consolidate in a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and moves across SE TX from noon until late Saturday.

[Ntxw]

Not as cold as last week, but deep trough after weekend's rain is seasonably below average. Then the globals diverge with big differences. Euro is sending a cold blast immediately following GFS is lackluster.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anyone have the NOAA Weather maps archive bookmarked? I thought i did, apparently not

Edit: Found it.

[srainhoutx]

Not as cold as last week, but deep trough after weekend's rain is seasonably below average. Then the globals diverge with big differences. Euro is sending a cold blast immediately following GFS is lackluster.

The HPC/WPC is leaning toward the Euro and its ensembles regarding the Thanksgiving timeframe. As always we cannot accurately predict the sensible weather beyond the 3 to 5 range, so expect changes during the busy Thanksgiving Holiday travel period.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1255 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 23 2014 - 12Z THU NOV 27 2014

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...23/1200Z...A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ATTAINING A NEGATIVE
TILT WHILE LIFTING FROM THE OZARKS UP TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL BECOME
ACTIVE AS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL HELP STRENGTHEN A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY. ADDITIONALLY...THE INITIAL CYCLONE MOVING UP THE MS
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN POSSIBLY LEADING TO A
SUB-975 MB PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
24/1200Z. GIVEN A STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ANCHORING THE
ATLANTIC...MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM GAINING ADDITIONAL LATITUDE
WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SOMETIME TUESDAY WITH ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TEMPERED BY THE
RIDGE TO ITS EAST. WHILE THE PATTERN IS MUCH MORE CLEAR-CUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S...MODELS VARY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN STATES. DEPENDING ON THE PIECE OF
GUIDANCE...EITHER AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE OR ENOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
SLIDE ONSHORE TO ALLOW A MEAN TROF TO BE FEATURED ACROSS THE WEST
BY MID-WEEK. MORE DETAILS FOLLOW IN THE NEXT SECTION.


...MODEL EVALUATION/WPC PREFERENCES...

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z UKMET WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH...ALL MODELS SEEM TO HANDLE THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE
OZARKS COMPARABLY EARLY SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE VARY WITH HOW DEEP
THE CYCLONE BECOMES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE 12Z CMC
BEING THE WEAKEST AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. DID FEEL THE 18Z
GFS WAS A BIT SLOW WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
WHILE THE 18Z GFS PARALLEL/12Z ECMWF APPEARED MORE COMPARABLE TO
THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. WPC FAVORED A COMBINATION OF THE 18Z GFS
PARALLEL/12Z ECMWF FOR DAYS 3 AND 4...NOV 23/24. AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS SECTION...THE MODELS AS A WHOLE SEEM TO HANDLE THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. TROF WELL BUT VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE
WEST. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM FOR THE ORIGIN OF THIS SYSTEM...IT
APPEARS TO EMERGE FROM A BLOCK SET UP ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THUS
FAR IT SEEMS LIKE THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
WILL NAVIGATE DOWNSTREAM. THE PAST THREE CYCLES OF THE ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THE DAY 6/7 TIME FRAME. SUCH A SOLUTION IS
SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z CMC AS WELL...ALBEIT WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES.
THE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES OF THE GFS SEEM TO BE MOST ADAMANT ABOUT
MAINTAINING A MEAN RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEANS REFLECT THESE VARYING OPINIONS. THE 12Z CMC/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS DO NOT SHOW THE STOUT RIDGE OF THE 18Z GEFS MEAN BUT ALSO DO
NOT SHOW AS MUCH AMPLIFICATION AS THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
WITH RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO DISCOUNT THE SOLUTION OF
THE GFS/GEFS MEAN SUITE AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 12Z
ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR DAYS 5-7.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
OF THE FORECAST GIVEN STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEEP
SURFACE LOW. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/WARM ADVECTION/WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ARE ALL FACTORS IN KEEPING MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THE CURRENT WPC FORECAST SUGGESTS LOW
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES APPROACHING 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST FOR DAYS 3-5. THE
DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WILL NOT BE QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT REGARDING
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. THE POST COLD FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY
BUT NOTHING LIKE THE PREVIOUS BOUTS OF COLD WEATHER. THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS OF ANOMALIES APPROACHING THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL RANGE WHICH WOULD CARRY HIGHS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...A WET PERIOD IS IN STORE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO BATCHES OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ONE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
SURGE OF HIGH PWAT AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. THE OTHER SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE A MIXED PHASE EVENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. IT IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT PRECIPITATION TYPE DETAILS...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT COLD AIR TO WRAP IN AROUND
THE BACKSIDE TO SUPPORT COMMA-HEAD SNOWS. ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S...IT SHOULD BE RATHER ACTIVE AS WELL GIVEN SUFFICIENT ONSHORE
FLOW COMBINING WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC MOISTURE SHOULD
MIGRATE INLAND SPREADING PRECIPITATION FROM THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. THE NEBULOUS FORECAST FOR
DAYS 6/7 DEFINITELY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO SUGGEST HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME OVER THE WEST.


RUBIN-OSTER

[gatorcane]

ECMWF has the Arctic blast plunging WAY south by day 10 - looks like a repeat of what just happened...

[weatherdude1108]

What is the difference between "enhanced risk" versus "slight risk"? Looks like Austin and San Antonio are in the "enhanced risk" category. It would be nice if we just a nice rain with this.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of South-Central Texas in at least a slight risk for severe storms for Saturday. The eastern half of the area is in an enhanced risk which is greater than slight. The main risks of severe weather will be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado or two will be possible. Now is the time to go over your plan for severe weather in the chance you are affected.

[srainhoutx]

What is the difference between "enhanced risk" versus "slight risk"? Looks like Austin and San Antonio are in the "enhanced risk" category. It would be nice if we just a nice rain with this.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of South-Central Texas in at least a slight risk for severe storms for Saturday. The eastern half of the area is in an enhanced risk which is greater than slight. The main risks of severe weather will be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated tornado or two will be possible. Now is the time to go over your plan for severe weather in the chance you are affected.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/dy1-3example/

[Tireman4]

From HGS AFD this morning:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201108
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
507 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN HAS BEGUN WITH THE REGION FALLING
UNDER A PRONOUNCED SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MID
TO UPPER 40 INTERIOR DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MEAN UPPER
50S BY THE CLOSE OF THE DAY...THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE WESTERN CORRIDOR OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA OR THOSE COUNTIES SURROUNDING
MATAGORDA BAY. HIGHER REZ MODELING IS FOCUSING QPF IN THIS AREA AS
IT DEVELOPS A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR MATAGORDA BAY.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BECOME MORE EFFICIENT OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS SW-S WINDS ALONG THE APPLICABLE THETA SURFACE PRODUCES
SUB 20 CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FURTHER SATURATES A
DEEPER COLUMN = MORE AREAL SHOWERS. 15 TO 20 KNOT NEAR SURFACE
WINDS MAKING IT ASHORE AND CREATING FRICTIONAL SPEED CONVERGENCE
WILL SATURATE THE LOWER LAYER TO PRODUCE STREAMER-LIKE SHOWERS...
TRANSITIONING FURTHER NORTH DURING THE WARMTH OF THE DAY. AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES UP THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD AREAL SHRA COVERAGE TOMORROW. VERY MILD AND WARM
CONDITIONS WITH AN AMPED UP SOUTH WIND...60S IN THE MORNING WARMING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. QUITE THE CHANGE IN A VERY SHORT
TIME! FOR PERSPECTIVE...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY IS STILL THE TARGET DAY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A POSSIBLE ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY...FROM THE HIGH SHEAR TO THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CREATED BY A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE
TEXAS. THE REGION DISPLAYS TWO PEAKS IN TORNADO FREQUENCY...ONE IN
THE MONTH OF MAY AND THE OTHER IN NOVEMBER. THE NATURAL TENDENCY
TO DESIRE HIGH THERMODYNAMIC INDICES NEEDS TO BE TEMPERED DUE TO
THE SEASON...COOL SEASON SEVERE WEATHER CAN RUN ON MUCH LOWER
THERMO DRIVERS. LOW TOPPED TORNADOES CAN AND WILL OCCUR DURING
THESE COOLER MONTHS UNDER LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...CAPE...
L.I.`S...ETC...COLD SEASON TORNADO CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THAT A RANGE
OF 500-1500 ML CAPE OCCURS DURING TORNADIC EVENTS WITH THE 50TH
QUARTILE FALLING AROUND 1200....EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...SRH IN THE 100 TO 300 RANGE. ALL OF THESE VALUES FALL IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS PROGS. IF THE REGION CAN SEE SOME SUN
BEHIND A LIFTING WARM FRONT EARLY SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE A HIGHER
THREAT FOR SEVERE TO BE ACHIEVED. HIGH TOTAL SHEAR VALUES WITH FAST
MOVING STORM MOTION(S) LEANS THE PRIMARILY THREAT TOWARDS WIND
DAMAGE. LOWER WBZ HEIGHTS MAY INTRODUCE A HAIL THREAT...AS WELL.
REGARDLESS OF THE THERMO AND DYNAMIC INDICES THE EXTREMELY HIGH PVA
PERPENDICULAR TO THE FLOW OF SUCH A SHARP MID-UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KICK OFF AT LEAST STRONG DISCRETE CELLS. THESE CELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO
A MORE ORGANIZED MCS OR QCLS THAT ADVERSELY IMPACTS THE AREA FROM AS
EARLY AS NOON THROUGH AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING.

WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST IN THE TROUGH`S WAKE SUNDAY...DRY AND
STABLE UNDER A NW FLOW TO BEGIN THANKSGIVING WEEK. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A COOLER
AND DRY AIR MASS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WILL KEEP MORNINGS IN THE
40S WITH AFTERNOONS WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE LOW TO MID 60S.
THANKSGIVING DAY IS FORECAST TO BE PLEASANT...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE AVERAGE UPPER 60S. 31

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH CIGS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-7000K FT, BUT 2800-4000 ACROSS WRN AREAS.
MODELS INSIST ON SOME RAPID LLVL MOISTURE RETURN TODAY W/ SOME
AREAS TRANSITIONING TO MVFR AS SCT AREAS OF -RA DEVELOP. NOT REAL
CONFIDENT REGARDING EITHER SINCE RIGS IN THE GULF NOT DISPLAYING
MUCH DIFFERENCE THAN WHAT WE SEE INLAND ATTM. SO WILL GENERALLY
KEEP MORE OPTIMISTIC TAFS IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM AND SEE HOW
THINGS PLAY OUT. WILL ADVERTISE GRADUALLY LOWER CIGS TONIGHT...
PROBABLY INTO MVFR TERRITORY...BUT AGAIN MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
SOME OF THE IFR SUGGESTIONS POSED BY SOME OF THE MODELS. 47

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS INCREASE LATER TODAY AND SHOULD SUPPORT CAUTION
CRITERIA OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT.
ADVSY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STRONG STORM SYSTEM. BY THEN...SEAS SHOULD BE 5-8 FEET
WITH SE/S WINDS OF 17-23 KNOTS AND A LONG FETCH. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. MODERATE SW
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE SAT NIGHT & SUNDAY. NEXT FRONT
PENCILED IN TO PUSH OFF THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. 47

&&

CLIMATE... HOUSTON RECORDED A RECORD LOW OF 30 DEGREES WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WAS 69 DEGREES.
THE HIGH IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT EXCEEDED
58 DEGREES SINCE NOV 11TH. THE LAST TIME HOUSTON RECORDED 7
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS AT OR BELOW 58 DEGREES DURING THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS BACK IN 1907. THE TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW 58
DEGREES BETWEEN 11/11/1901 AND 11/18/1907. THAT WAS ALSO THE LAST
TIME (UNTIL THIS YEAR) THAT HOUSTON SUFFERED A DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES PER DAY FOR EIGHT
CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

1907 2014

DATE TEMP DEP DATE TEMP DEP

NOV 11 45 -18 NOV 12 51 -13
NOV 12 40 -24 NOV 13 41 -22
NOV 13 42 -22 NOV 14 41 -22
NOV 14 43 -20 NOV 15 48 -14
NOV 15 51 -12 NOV 16 50 -12
NOV 16 45 -17 NOV 17 44 -18
NOV 17 50 -12 NOV 18 44 -18
NOV 18 50 -12 NOV 19 50 -11

LASTLY...SEVERE WEATHER IN NOVEMBER DOES OCCUR. SOME OF THE MORE
NOTORIOUS TORNADO OUTBREAKS THAT HAVE AFFECTED SE TX OCCURRED
DURING NOVEMBER. HERE ARE A FEW REMINDERS...

DATE EF SCALE LOCATION

NOV 8 2011 EF-1 HOUSTON AND TEXAS CITY

NOV 17 2003 EF-2 24 TORNADOES - 72 INJURIES

NOV 6 2000 EF-1 CONROE AND SHEPHERD

NOV 16 1993 EF-1 DOWNTOWN HOUSTON - 26 MINOR INJ

NOV 21 1992 EF-4 KATY...HOUSTON...CHANNELVIEW
LAST EF-4 TO AFFECT SE TX

NOV 15 1987 EF-2 4 TORNADOES
CALDWELL AND NORMANGEE
5 KILLED AND 35 INJURED

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 60 73 62 72 / 30 50 50 40 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 70 62 74 62 73 / 30 30 30 30 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 69 65 71 66 72 / 30 30 30 20 90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31/47

[Ralph's Weather]

ECMWF has the Arctic blast plunging WAY south by day 10 - looks like a repeat of what just happened...

This would fit with what we are seeing from the analogs. This looks like it will be a winter where even average temps seem abnormally warm. It is still November and the 60s seem warm and next weeks 40s and 50s seem normal.