ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

PDO update up to +1.49

Another good sign of El Nino coming officially very soon is the positive PDO now up to +1.49. That is up from the +1.08 that was on last update.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Ntxw]

PDO update up to +1.49

Another good sign of El Nino coming officially very soon is the positive PDO now up to +1.49. That is up from the +1.08 that was on last update.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

That I believe, is a top 5 +PDO reading for October, the others were pre 1997.

[cycloneye]

Loop of sst anomalies show how warm they are.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

[gatorcane]

wow certainly looks like an el nino is on the way now using that link above

[Ntxw]

Looks good to me the IRI percentages are definitely too low





For comparison 2009 at this time, it was stronger with more surface warming by November of course that one finished as a mod-strong borderline Nino

[cycloneye]

I am going to do something interesting to this important thread. I am moving it to this USA / Caribbean Weather forum as it will be good to the members that are following the fall weather to look at the ENSO thread.I am leaving a shadow thread of it in the Talking Tropics forum so it can be seen also in that forum.

[Ntxw]

I like this idea, good work! I think folks over North America should monitor this very closely as it will be very impactful and effect all aspects of weather. Some of the most severe winters with a similar background ENSO/PDO state have occurred during weak Nino's mostly notably the late 1970s.

[cycloneye]

I like this idea, good work! I think folks over North America should monitor this very closely as it will be very impactful and effect all aspects of weather. Some of the most severe winters with a similar background ENSO/PDO state have occurred during weak Nino's mostly notably the late 1970s.

And that is not all as I will move this thread as the seasons come meaning when Winter arrives officially,is moved to the Winter forum and when Spring comes it moves to this forum again.

[cycloneye]

Looks good to me the IRI percentages are definitely too low

http://i62.tinypic.com/hu23k3.gif

http://i60.tinypic.com/28b7d3l.gif

For comparison 2009 at this time, it was stronger with more surface warming by November of course that one finished as a mod-strong borderline Nino

http://i61.tinypic.com/jqrk7c.gif

The Aussies 70% are ahead of the curve than CPC at this time.And with those revealing graphics is a matter of time the declaration by CPC and they may have to raise the % to par with the Aussies.I still say D-Day is December 4th.

[cycloneye]

Here is how things stand in the historic perspective so far as 2014 comes to an end.The question is how high in the scale the upcoming El Nino will be at the peak.

[cycloneye]

Here is what Dr Michael Ventrice says about why CFSv2 is biased.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice
Wohh nelly! CFSv2 bringing El Nino back into a moderate to high category. Probably biased to downwelling KW surfacing

[Ntxw]

This Nino is in business basinwide. Per Levi Cowan's site all regions are above 1C and even the buoys average out over 1C.

[cycloneye]

This Nino is in business basinwide. Per Levi Cowan's site all regions are above 1C and even the buoys average out over 1C.

http://i62.tinypic.com/2v93exe.png

Nino 3.4 responds by reaching +1.0C.

[Nairobi]

Some parts of the world are very negatively affected by El Ninos, like Australia, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and south Pacific islands like Tahiti and Bora Bora (from cyclones). So those who are praying and getting all excited for one should keep that in mind.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 11/20/14 Mid November update is up to 75% chance of having El Nino
This new update by CPC is up from the 58% it had on the early November update.It looks like this El Nino event wont last too long nor it will be a strong one. But there are some caveats about some factors that are not favorable for El Nino to appear (So far)

Recent and Current Conditions

The SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region has hovered near or just below the threshold of the level required for El Niño level, beginning in early November the weekly SST anomalies have started exceeded it. For October the average NINO3.4 SST anomaly was 0.49 C, indicative of borderline Niño conditions, and for Aug-Oct it was 0.38 C. The IRI’s definition of El Niño, like NOAA/Climate Prediction Center’s, requires that the SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region (5S-5N; 170W-120W) exceed 0.5 C. Similarly, for La Niña, the anomaly must be -0.5 C or less. The climatological probabilities for La Niña, neutral, and El Niño conditions vary seasonally, and are shown in a table at the bottom of this page for each 3-month season. The most recent weekly SST anomaly in the Nino3.4 region was 0.8 C, in the category of weak El Niño for SST. However, accompanying this SST is an atmospheric pattern with inadequate indication of an El Niño-like pattern–very weak westerly low-level wind anomalies and no positive anomalies of convection near the dateline. Some indicators, however, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), have recently assumed values indicative of weak El Niño, and the upper level wind anomalies are also showing El Niño-indicative enhanced easterlies.

Expected Conditions

What is the outlook for the ENSO status going forward? The most recent official diagnosis and outlook was issued earlier this month in the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, produced jointly by CPC and IRI; it called for a 58% likelihood for a transition from neutral ENSO conditions to El Niño conditions during the remainder of fall 2014 now in progress, and into winter. The latest set of model ENSO predictions, from mid-November, now available in the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plume, is discussed below. Currently, Nino3.4 SST anomalies are about 0.8C, above the 0.5C threshold for weak El Niño. Subsurface temperature anomalies across the eastern equatorial Pacific have remained somewhat above average, and in fact increased slightly during the last few weeks. In the atmosphere, the basin-wide sea level pressure pattern (e.g. the SOI) has recently exceeded the threshold of -10 for a weak El Niño. However, other atmospheric parameters continue to reflect neutral or warm-neutral ENSO conditions: Weak anomalous low-level westerlies have appeared at times during October and early November but have not been sustained or particularly strong. Upper level anomalous westerlies are also being observed over parts of the central equatorial Pacific. Anomalous convection (as measured by OLR) has been near average, or even below average, near and eastward of the dateline, and over much of Indonesia, and enhanced in a portions of the far western tropical Pacific. Together, the oceanic and atmospheric features currently reflect a warmish but neutral ENSO condition, despite the weak El Niño status of the SST during the last few weeks.

As of mid-November, none of the dynamical or statistical models models predicts La Niña SST conditions for the initial Nov-Jan 2014-15 season, 88% predicts El Niño conditions, and 12% indicates neutral ENSO. At lead times of 3 or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean’s observed subsurface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. For the Feb-Apr 2015 season, among models that do use subsurface temperature information, 19% predicts ENSO-neutral SSTs, 81% predicts El Niño conditions and none predicts La Niña conditions. For all model types, the probability for neutral ENSO conditions is 20% or below between Nov-Jan 2014-15 through Jan-Mar, and 30% or below through Jun-Aug 2015. Probabilities for El Niño rise are 80-88% between Nov-Jan 2014-15 through Jan-Mar, and at least 70% out to May-July 2015. No model predicts La Niña conditions for any of the 3-month periods between Nov-Jan 2014-15 and Jul-Sep 2015.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... iri_update

[curtadams]

This Nino is in business basinwide. Per Levi Cowan's site all regions are above 1C and even the buoys average out over 1C.

Except we're not seeing El Nino, we're seeing a different phenomenon, unnamed AFAIK. El Nino is above average temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific combined with below average temperatures in the western equatorial Pacific. The entire equatorial Pacific heating up is certainly going to have massive effects on worldwide weather but they won't generally be the same as the classic El Nino effects.

Evolution to a more classic El Nino is certainly possible but it's not happening for now.

[cycloneye]

Some cooling is occurring at Nino 1+2 and in part of Nino 3 as fluctuations up and down continue.Nino 3.4 remains on the warm side.

[cycloneye]

ESPI is at negative meaning not too favorable for El Nino so the mixed signals continue with some factors favorable and others not so.

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days as of 11/21/14 is -0.11

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov//trmm_rain/Ev ... y_day.html

[Yellow Evan]

This Nino is in business basinwide. Per Levi Cowan's site all regions are above 1C and even the buoys average out over 1C.

Except we're not seeing El Nino, we're seeing a different phenomenon, unnamed AFAIK. El Nino is above average temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific combined with below average temperatures in the western equatorial Pacific. The entire equatorial Pacific heating up is certainly going to have massive effects on worldwide weather but they won't generally be the same as the classic El Nino effects.

Evolution to a more classic El Nino is certainly possible but it's not happening for now.

There's no rule that requires below avg SST's in the WPAC in order for El Nino AFAIK.

[Ntxw]

This Nino is in business basinwide. Per Levi Cowan's site all regions are above 1C and even the buoys average out over 1C.

Except we're not seeing El Nino, we're seeing a different phenomenon, unnamed AFAIK. El Nino is above average temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific combined with below average temperatures in the western equatorial Pacific. The entire equatorial Pacific heating up is certainly going to have massive effects on worldwide weather but they won't generally be the same as the classic El Nino effects.

Evolution to a more classic El Nino is certainly possible but it's not happening for now.

There's no rule that requires below avg SST's in the WPAC in order for El Nino AFAIK.

You are correct Yellow Evan. CPC/NOAA defines El Nino as 0.5C or above at Nino 3.4 for a certain period of time. La Nina is -0.5C anything in between is neutral. The other regions, for classification purposes, do not matter. You can have 10C in 1+2, Nino 4 or -10C but if 3.4 is at 0C there is no event per classification. The other regions are complimentary, they do matter to the atmosphere but they are not used officially by CPC for declaration of an ENSO event.

If you want to learn about the different types of ENSO events and the different ways it happens, check out the ENSO blog for the different flavors of El Nino.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... avor-month