Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Temp bottomed out at 25.2 degrees just a few minutes ago at my locale as I head out for work. This is colder by a degree from yesterday morning, where 26.2 was the low here.

[northjaxpro]

NWS Jax office set another record low this morning. Consecutive mornings with recold cold temps!

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
800 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT JACKSONVILLE...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEGREES WAS SET AT JACKSONVILLE THIS
MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 30 SET IN 1873.

[Sanibel]

The atmosphere is energized and sending polar airmasses further south. That record wasn't broken it was smashed.


Milder today and warming into the low 70's under sun.

[gatorcane]

Potent cool down for turkey holiday maybe...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_32.png

Highly unlikely with the NAO staying near neutral to slightly positive through next 7 days and 588+dm ridge staying put close to FL.

12Z Parallel GFS showing cold anomalies centered over Florida, just after Thanksgiving. Seems a little bit strange. ECMWF doesn't show this at all (completely different long-wave pattern over the U.S.) and has proved more reliable in forecasting fronts even more so than the updated GFS so will stick to the ECMWF:

GFS


ECMWF

[NDG]

Potent cool down for turkey holiday maybe...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_32.png

Highly unlikely with the NAO staying near neutral to slightly positive through next 7 days and 588+dm ridge staying put close to FL.

12Z Parallel GFS showing cold anomalies centered over Florida, just after Thanksgiving. Seems a little bit strange. ECMWF doesn't show this at all (completely different long-wave pattern over the U.S.) and has proved more reliable in forecasting fronts even more so than the updated GFS so will stick to the ECMWF:

GFS
http://i60.tinypic.com/35n7r7b.png

ECMWF
http://i58.tinypic.com/317f8lf.png

I agree, the way to go is to stick with the ECMWF, if the GFS would had been correct in its medium range forecast Orlando would had seen 20s for lows yesterday and south FL in the 30s.

Fairly safe to say that it will be hard for any freezes for central and S FL over the next couple of weeks with most ensemble members showing the NAO to stay near neutral with the Euro having the right idea.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Miami NWS going with GFS. As usual:

The cold front is forecast to clear South Florida by Wednesday
evening. However, there is still considerable uncertainty
associated with this forecast due to the large amplitude of the
trough and the large ensemble spread still present in the
different ensemble members of the GFS and European model (ecmwf). Right now the
forecast calls for lows in middle 50s for the East Coast metropolitan areas
for Thursday and Friday morning of this coming week.

[northjaxpro]

It looks like we will cool down again next week around Thanksgiving, but it appears this next cool down won't be as extreme(or record breaking) in this area as this departing Arctic airmass we just experienced. That is if the GFS doesn't verify with its usual colder bias. May see light freeze across the panhandle by Thanksgiving morning and interior areas of North Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Local NBC station Mets. here in West Palm Beach are surprisingly going fully with the GFS. They are even really emphasizing it too.

[northjaxpro]

The atmosphere is energized and sending polar airmasses further south. That record wasn't broken it was smashed.


Milder today and warming into the low 70's under sun.

Yeah Sanibel the record here was smashed by a mile LOL. It indeed has been a very impressive arctic cold spell for Northern FL, definitely one of the coldest Novembers ever.

[gatorcane]

Local NBC station Mets. here in West Palm Beach are surprisingly going fully with the GFS. They are even really emphasizing it too.
http://i59.tinypic.com/nc039w.jpg

Especially since we are talking about 1 week out, why they would go "all in" on the GFS makes little sense. If anything take a blend of the ECMWF and GFS but likely "King Euro" will be right again.

[SFLcane]

Potent cool down for turkey holiday maybe...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_32.png

Highly unlikely with the NAO staying near neutral to slightly positive through next 7 days and 588+dm ridge staying put close to FL.

The ECMWF has now joined the GFS in this cool down for thanksgiving. Infact its trended colder with mid-40's into South Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Well, a bit of a surprise this morning as the temperature is at 32.4 degrees just before 4 am. This makes the third consecutive morning here at my locale with freezing temperatures. I was expecting only mid-upper 30s as I thought some high cloudiness to move over our area overnight, but apparently, skies stayed clear and allowed for more radiational cooling to be maximized this morning.

Well, the onshore flow will kick in today as a High Pressure will get re-enforced up in the. Mid-Atlantic region. Breezy northeast winds here today and becoming east-southeast on Saturday. A warm front will traverse northward and move through the region by Sunday. Lift will be enhanced and rain chances go up significantly beginning Sunday into Monday across the state. Sunday evening into Monday really looks wet with a very moist SW flow out of the GOM ahead of the next trough moving down into the Eastern US early next week. It appears that a cold front should move into North Florida during the day Tuesday and reach and clear the southern peninsula by Wednesday morning.

Still a bit of uncertainty of how cold it will be at Thanksgiving. MIami WFO really giving GFS some credence with much colder temps for the peninsula, calling for mid 40s down in Southeast peninsula. I would still go with a comprimise with a blend of the EURO and GFS. This next cold spell will be chilly, but I don't think it will be record breaking as this one we just experienced here. May see light freeze Thanksgiving morning in portions of Interior North Florida.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I havent looked at the moodels. But it seems the ecmf has a sharper east coast trof then the gfs now. According to this morning quick look at the TWC channel.

[Sanibel]

Meanwhile those 84* highs look good to me.

[SFLcane]

Long range so plenty can change but the GFS with possible 30's all the way down to S.FL.

[asd123]

Folks there is major cold weather forecasted by the models, having king Euro ECMWF and GFS support.

ECMWF showing cold average -4 850 mb temps for cfla, but strangely only low 30's for 2m temps. One would expect at those 850 mb temps upper 20s.

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF 850 mb


GFS showing a widespread freeze for much of cfla. Thursday night

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits: GFS 2m

[TheStormExpert]

Long range so plenty can change but the GFS with possible 30's all the way down to S.FL.

It's now in the medium range plus the Euro shows about the same exact thing as well now (for 2 runs). But yeah, could always change so stay tuned!

[gatorcane]

Wow I am shocked but indeed the ECMWF has trended much colder and is now similar to the PGFS if not colder on the 12Z.

[StormingB81]

So when can we start talking snow this year? lol

[asd123]

Folks there is major cold weather forecasted by the models, having king Euro ECMWF and GFS support.

ECMWF showing cold average -4 850 mb temps for cfla, but strangely only low 30's for 2m temps. One would expect at those 850 mb temps upper 20s.

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF 850 mb


GFS showing a widespread freeze for much of cfla. Thursday night

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits: GFS 2m

NDG northjaxpro and others, what is your take?