I really wonder why the GFS is extremely consistent on the two systems... Probably a harbinger of something to come.
Both are forecast hit the Visayas/Southern Luzon region of the Philippines.
2014 WPAC Season
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xtyphooncyclonex
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Wow. GFS cancels the other system (second) and makes the first system powerful. 
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
Also noticed it's slightly closer now in development only 204 hours...haiyan like track...but slightly north which will take this to the island of yap first...
EURO is less aggressive but shows a plume of moisture headed for the area...
CMC is on par with EURO but further east west of Guam...
NAVGEM is even further to the east, southeast of Guam near 160E...
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
euro6208 wrote::uarrow:
Also noticed it's slightly closer now in development only 204 hours...haiyan like track...but slightly north which will take this to the island of yap first...
I am amazed of its consistency and which means it is closer to reality.
This track is more westerly though, a tad south of Haiyan
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xtyphooncyclonex
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WOW
My location is highlighted as the black dot outlined with white
My location is highlighted as the black dot outlined with white
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euro6208
Re:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I really wonder why the GFS is extremely consistent on the two systems... Probably a harbinger of something to come.
Both are forecast hit the Visayas/Southern Luzon region of the Philippines.
Most likely MJO and Kelvin Wave with a very moist basin come last week of november continuing into december...
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Thus the sea surface temperature warming over the El Niño box [near 5N] could indirectly fuel development.
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
06Z parallel and non-parallel now only 144 hours from developing our next tropical cyclone, sinlaku, south of guam and heads slowly westward...
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
Interestingly, the GFS has shown the development of this phantom system for 4 days now but the recent model runs are no longer showing a strong typhoon. All we have in our hands now though are just hints as we still don't have a tropical disturbance for better initialization...when that happens, we can take these model runs more seriously...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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mrbagyo
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
dexterlabio wrote:Interestingly, the GFS has shown the development of this phantom system for 4 days now but the recent model runs are no longer showing a strong typhoon. All we have in our hands now though are just hints as we still don't have a tropical disturbance for better initialization...when that happens, we can take these model runs more seriously...
well, there is a persistent convection buiding up near the Dateline.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/
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dexterlabio
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season
mrbagyo wrote:well, there is a persistent convection buiding up near the Dateline.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/
true...and both CMC and NAVGEM picks up something on the same area as well..so there is a healthy probability that something might develop, but the question is where it will go and how strong. there will be more confidence in the track and intensity forecast of models when they initialize an actual disturbance..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
Development expected in 108 hours and most models keep it a weak tropical storm until landfall in luzon...
Another system right behind at 240 hours might be the major player bottoming out at 973 mb...
#1 spot in the world for category 5's, philippine sea...
Another system right behind at 240 hours might be the major player bottoming out at 973 mb...
#1 spot in the world for category 5's, philippine sea...
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Latest run cancels both systems.
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ManilaTC
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Guess what, both systems are back.
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Nov 23, 2014 10:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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euro6208
Re: 2014 WPAC Season
The system behind 93W could be the next biggie...180 hours out...
EURO and GFS in agreement...
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euro6208
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euro6208
