Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Good afternoon.

Gusty,here in PR the rain amounts having been between 1-2 inches but no flooding has been reported with this event caused by a trough that ends tonight.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA...WILL
DISSIPATED TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AFFECTING MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING THE
LOCAL AREA. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOME
ISOLATED AREAS SINCE MIDNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD FROM
THE WEST. SINCE AN IMPROVE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS IS THEN EXPECTED
STARTING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRED LATE
THIS MORNING.

FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...STRONG TRADES WILL
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FROM TIME TO TIME. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THIS EVENING INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST
23/02Z. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM THE EAST AFTER THAT
WITH VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. LATEST TJSJ 12Z
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 25 KNOTS ALL THE WAY
FROM THE SURFACE TO 30K FEET...BECOMING NORTHEAST AND A LITTLE
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS
20-23 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY
ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT AMZ745.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 84 76 84 / 20 30 30 30
STT 77 88 77 88 / 40 30 30 30

Thanks for that report Cycloneye glad to hear you amigo de corazonn No floods is an excellent news, and with all that toons of water we have already received in much of the east and NE carib islands it's time to have a rest i hope

[Gustywind]

Abajan what are the latest estimations in your area in terms of rainfall?

That's a good question. It's hard to tell because the airport is one of the driest places on the island and their rainfall figures don't accurately reflect the true picture of what's happening elsewhere. Nevertheless, according to our Met Office, rainfall recorded at the airport for the 12 hour period ending at 6 o'clock this morning was 17.4 mm; for November so far, 205.3 mm, and for the year, 961.7 mm.

Source: http://www.barbadosweather.org/

ok thanks; i suppose that things have calm down since?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE UPPER
LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY NOW TRAILING A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WESTWARDS
AND CROSSING THE MONA PASSAGE. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONSEQUENTLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

EXPECT THE TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT FRAGMENTS OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WILL ONCE
AGAIN AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ON SUNDAY LESS FREQUENT
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BUT THERE WILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP AND QUICKLY STREAM
WESTWARD MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME. DID HOWEVER UPDATE THE SHORT TERM WIND GRIDS AND THE MARINE
WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED FROM TIME TO
TIME THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN OCCASION THESE SHOWERS WERE HEAVY
BUT DO TO STRONG WINDS...THESE SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY WITHOUT
GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT THE
TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEATHER IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN.
LESS FREQUENT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY BUT THERE WILL
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH MAY
DEVELOP AND QUICKLY STREAM WESTWARD MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL
BE LESS FREQUENT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND REMAIN WINDY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES TODAY-MON. OUTSIDE CHC BRF
SHRA/MVFR CIG AT TJMZ IN AFT AND TONITE-MON MRNG ELSEWHERE. WINDS
SFC-FL200 E 15-30 KT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHWEST PR. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 85 76 / 20 30 30 40
STT 88 78 89 79 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A DRY AIR MASS HAS MOVED
ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
TOTAL CONTROL OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST TUESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST
DAY AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME
TIME...AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA TONIGHT WITH ONLY VCSH. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
10K FEET...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHWEST PR. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 85 / 30 30 40 40
STT 78 89 79 88 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. FEW PASSING SHOWERS
AFFECTED PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT THE FAIRLY
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED TO PUSH THE CLOUD FRAGMENTS
AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY QUICKLY WESTWARD LEAVING LITTLE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TJSJ 24/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.42 INCHES THIS EVENING AS A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR FILTERED IN FROM THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE EVENING SOUNDING FROM TFFR (GUADELOUPE) SHOWED
ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW CROSSING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PWAT VALUE TO NEAR 1.88
INCHES. EXPECT THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE TO TRANSPORT THIS
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. SO EXPECTED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE COASTAL
WATERS AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC RETROGRESSES. FLAT RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW AREAS OF
MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU WED WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. TRADE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES EXITS THE CAROLINAS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR AND
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND
EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 81 83 81 / 40 40 10 30
STT 82 81 82 81 / 30 30 10 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INHIBITING THE
DEVELOPING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION..BUT SMALL PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORTS SHALLOW AREAS OF MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE
USVI AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS EXPECT A PLEASANT...GENERALLY FAIR AND
MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EACH DAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FOLLOWED BY SHALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
WEST PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS IMPROVING
RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 75 84 / 40 10 30 30
STT 78 86 77 87 / 30 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
RETROGRESS TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
THEN BUILD FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND WED THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN A MOIST
EAST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS TONIGHT ON BACKSIDE
OF RETROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL LOW LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WED AND MID
LEVEL COOLING WILL HELP TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS WED-WED NIGHT MAINLY
OVR THE ERN HALF OF PR. DRYING EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND
THROUGH FRI WITH MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS TRADES STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND RRQ
JET STREAK DYNAMICS FROM A SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT LAYERS BLO FL100 WITH PASSING SHRA AND VCSH
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR. STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
15-25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT
AND WED WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. SEAS 6-8
FT TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WED THEN SUBSIDE
RAPIDLY TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 81 85 79 / 30 20 30 30
STT 82 81 82 80 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS FLATTEN TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE IN THE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS THE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MINIMAL. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN BREEZE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TIME TO TIME
TONIGHT AFFECTING MOSTLY THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A GENERAL DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOST PART OF
WEDNESDAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE TYPICAL PASSING
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ARE STILL EXPECTED. NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST AND TJSJ.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 25K FEET...BECOMING NORTHERLY
ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE RAPID WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5-7 FT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THEN SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TO 3-5
FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 5-7
FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 83 / 20 30 30 10
STT 77 86 75 86 / 10 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 AM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD 60W BY THANKSGIVING DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ON
FRI THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SRN STREAM TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH 12Z
SAT GREATLY INHIBITING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. A SRN STREAM TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC NORTH OF 20N DURING THE WEEEKEND AND ERODE
THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PROMOTING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON OVR INLAND AREAS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN SAT INTO MID
NEXT WEEK ENHANCING NOCTURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ON WINDWARD AREAS.
THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE FROM THE NORTHEAST SUN INTO WED
FAVORING MAINLY THE SOUTH COAST FOR PRECIP DURING THE DAY AND
NORTHEAST PR AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIG
OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...NOT AS WINDY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH WINDS UP TO
20 KT. WINDS DIMINISH RAPIDLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20
KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 78 85 75 / 30 30 10 10
STT 87 79 85 78 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

To all the Caribbean and Central American friends have a good Thanksgiving day.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...WHILE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FLATTENS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
UNDER WEAKENING TRADES...AN INDUCED/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND W
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...PASSING
-SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TAF SITES. NO SIG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONDS...AFT 26/23Z WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 84 / 30 10 10 30
STT 76 86 76 86 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
403 AM AST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW NE OF THE AREA WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TONIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN
FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS SRN STREAM TROF MOVES ACROSS THE SW ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY LATER
TODAY LEADING TO RAPID EROSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS...EXPECTING
CURRENT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z. SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION HOLDS THROUGH 12Z SAT KEEPING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
NEXT 48 HRS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENING ON SAT LEADING TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS SAT AFTERNOON OVR INLAND AREAS. MOISTURE
DEEPENS THROUGH SUN WITH SCT RW/TSRA EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDS MON-MON NIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING SRN STREAM TROUGH LEADING
TO MID-LEVEL DRYING. A SECOND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE GMEX WILL
MOVE INTO SW ATLC AND NW CARIB TUE AND WED AND PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WED ON WITH THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS. EAST NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT 10-15 KT. NO SIG OPERATIONAL
WX IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY TODAY THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN SEAS. WILL UNDERCUT WW3
GUIDANCE NEXT 72 HRS AS WAVE MODEL LOOKS TOO PESSIMISTIC. WINDS
STRENGTHEN AGAIN SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING
5-7 FT. A NW SWELL GROUP IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUN INCREASING
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 76 / 0 0 0 30
STT 86 77 86 78 / 0 0 20 20

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
157 PM AST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AS TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEAKENS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE ALOFT
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...
TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL DECREASE...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS CANT BE RULED OUT.

MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...
PROMOTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WITH
THE RISK HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLE CLOUDY TIL THE EVENING
HOURS...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFT 27/23Z. SOME
LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...
TISX. HOWEVER...NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
EAST NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT 10-15 KT DROPPING BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON LEADING TO
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN SEAS. HOWEVER...WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-6 FT. A NW
SWELL GROUP IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUN INCREASING THE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 85 / 10 20 20 30
STT 76 86 76 86 / 0 30 30 30

[msbee]

From http://www.crownweather.com

Issued: Thursday, November 27, 2014 11:10 am EST/10:10 am CST

Cold Front Pushing Into The Northwest Caribbean & A Upper Level Low East-Northeast Of Puerto Rico Are Being Monitored; Longer Range Forecast Guidance Hints At Some Mischief By The Middle & Later Parts Of Next Week

A strong cold front is pushing southeastward across the Bahamas, Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean this morning. This frontal boundary is forecast to continue pushing eastward across the western Caribbean over the next couple of days or so. This means that gale force winds and rough seas will be an issue across the Bahamas as well as across the western half of the Caribbean from today right through this weekend. By next week, this frontal boundary will only partially wash out across the central and southwestern Caribbean, however, an area of low pressure may try to form along the tail end of this front over the southwestern Caribbean just north of Panama during the early and middle part of next week. More on that possibility later in this discussion……

Satellite imagery this morning also shows an upper level low pressure system located a few hundred miles to the northeast of Puerto Rico. The forecast with this upper level low has some “interesting” possibilities. It appears that this weather system will be initially pulled northward by the frontal system pushing offshore into the western Atlantic tracking this to the east of Bermuda over the next two to three days. By next week, however, some of the forecast guidance, including the European and Canadian models, then forecast that a piece of energy may split off and forms a surface low pressure system that dives southwestward from near 27 North Latitude, 50 West Longitude on Monday to 22 North Latitude and 60 West Longitude by Wednesday of next week. Now, the operational GFS model guidance does not show this scenario, but instead forecasts a scenario of a low pressure system forming in the southwestern Caribbean around the middle part of next week and tracking northeast and east-northeastward towards Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Lesser Antilles by the weekend of December 6th and 7th.

You are probably asking which model scenario do I believe more? Right now, I’m leaning much more towards the scenario of low pressure tracking southwestward from the central Atlantic early next week to the western Atlantic just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. From there, the overall upper level pattern may drive this low pressure system to near the Bahamas by the end of next week. It is something to certainly keep an eye on for next week and since this low pressure system will be hanging around for several days, there is certainly the possibility that it could try to become a sub-tropical storm.

So, for those of you in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Lesser Antilles, keep an eye on anything that forms to your northeast over the next several days as it may bring you some very stormy weather by Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 AM AST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THEN FLATTEN DURING THE WEEKEND. A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SUN THEN SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS MON AND TUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND SPARSE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. INVERSION BEGINS TO
WEAKEN SAT AS UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS/WEAKENS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH SCT RW/TSRA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVR NCNTRL PR SAT AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUN BUT IT APPEARS AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
UNFAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK. STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS MAY ALSO LIMIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS OVERALL LOOK
LESS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL SUN THAN ON SAT. SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS MON AND TUE AND TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT
INHIBITING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. DURING DECEMBER...DIURNAL
CONVECTION TAKES A SIG DOWNWARD TURN AND SHIFTS MORE TO EASTERN
PR. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING MUCH WX MON AND TUE.

DURING THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB AND
PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRAZING THE FCST AREA. FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS TOO ZONAL WITH NOT MUCH AMPLIFICATION. DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS
APPEARS WAY OVERDONE WITH SIG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN AND WITH A LOW PRES FCST TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE SCNTRL
CARIBBEAN. GIVEN THE LACK OF AMPLIFICATION SEEN ON GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE BAHAMAS AND WRN
CARIBBEAN...PREFER THE MORE SUPPRESSED AND DRYER SOLUTIONS OF THE
00Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEEPING LOW PRES SUPPRESSED AND DEEP
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BUT DO EXPECT TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. FEW PASSING -SHRA W/SCT CLD LYRS PSBL BTW FL020-FL050 OVR
THE ATL WATERS N OF PR AND BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS TIL 28/12Z.
DURG REST OF THE DAY FM 28/12Z-28/22Z...MOSTLY FAIR WX SKIES/VFR
WITH SLIGHT CHC OF ISOLD -SHRA/SHRA MAINLY OVR WEST/CTRL INT SECTION
OF PR. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACT ATTM. L/LVL WND MAINLY LGT FM
ENE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BLO FL200. SFC WND MOSTLY TO CALM TIL 28/14Z
BCMG LGT/VRB DURG DAY WITH LCL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG COASTAL
AND AT TAF SITES TIL 28/22Z.


&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TRADE WINDS TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN SAT THROUGH
MON WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS HAVE COME DOWN TO 2-4 FT BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT BY MON IN MIXED NNW SWELLS AND NE WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 79 / 0 0 20 20
STT 86 78 86 79 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
222 PM AST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS POLAR
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND SAINT CROIX. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...UNDER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE. THEREFORE...EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...BECOMING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
IN THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. UNDER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE CORDILLERA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A 20
KT WIND FLOW WILL ALSO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK...
PROMOTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WITH THE
RISK HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. FEW BRIEF PASSING SHRA MOVING
MAINLY IN/AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ/TNCM/TKPK. ALSO...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. EASTERLY SFC WND AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH
LCL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS ALONG COASTAL TAF SITES TIL 28/22Z
DROPPING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SAT AS MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NORTHWEST TO NORTH SWELLS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
BUILDING SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 30 40
STT 77 86 77 86 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION AS A POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE EROSION OF THE TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION ALONG
WITH A STEEPER LAPSE RATE AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS INCREASE THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKENING INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL FURTHER AID
IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

RAINFALL MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS BUT
NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW IS TO
DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AND DIP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND SEE HOW AND IF THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 29/14Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL
THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 20K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT. AFTER 29/13Z SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 7 FEET
OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL AND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 40 30 40 40
STT 86 75 86 76 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST SAT NOV 29 2014


.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH LIMITED AT THIS MOMENT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO. ALSO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...INCREASING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW IS TO DEVELOP
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AND DIP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FCST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR AND IFR ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ
DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AFT 29/16Z. EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 7 FEET
OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL AND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 50 50 50 50
STT 75 86 76 86 / 40 40 30 30