2014 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Can't wait to see what tropicaltidbits will show on it's move to Sulimo...

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has a formidable Typhoon making landfall in the Philippines.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS not only showing one but two tropical storms just 5N north of the equator in just 100 hours...

First system ultimately loses to the larger second system and intensifies to 944 mb in the Philippine Sea...

At 384 hours, it develops another monster typhoon west of Guam....

[euro6208]

Dramatic increase of convection across the WPAC as a very strong kelvin wave moves into the area and remain in the area for days...



MJO...





Here it comes...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF showing a storm landfalling over the PHL next week which is southeast of the Visayas, and is unusually strong for that model. I doubt that GFS recurvature scenario will pan out, the STR is quite strong.

[cycloneye]

From the Guam NWS:

GFS STILL SHOWS A PAIR OF
CIRCULATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON ONE OVER
THE OTHER IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. MODELS SHOW THIS
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT PASSES NEAR YAP.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH IN THE LONG-TERM TO SEE HOW THIS
EVOLVES.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The two models [GFS and ECMWF] are already consistent with a strong typhoon, but uncertain of its future track. The GFS favors a recurve scenario which spares the Philippines, while the latter shows a strong landfall over the Eastern Visayas. NAVGEM shows a strong tropical storm, and due to the limited time frame perhaps it is a strong typhoon as well, favoring Mindanao/Visayas area. This really reminds me of what happened to the models during Bopha.

[dexterlabio]

The two models [GFS and ECMWF] are already consistent with a strong typhoon, but uncertain of its future track. The GFS favors a recurve scenario which spares the Philippines, while the latter shows a strong landfall over the Eastern Visayas. NAVGEM shows a strong tropical storm, and due to the limited time frame perhaps it is a strong typhoon as well, favoring Mindanao/Visayas area. This really reminds me of what happened to the models during Bopha.

Have to agree on Bopha...GFS was showing a sharp recurve and ECMWF was the first to show a Mindanao landfall back then... I am not saying that this will also be the case now though, last month we had a strong steering ridge to the north too but Nuri managed to make its way NE thanks to the strong trough...

[euro6208]

Such a low rider. development in 24 hours and estimate only 2.5 N of the equator...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The two models [GFS and ECMWF] are already consistent with a strong typhoon, but uncertain of its future track. The GFS favors a recurve scenario which spares the Philippines, while the latter shows a strong landfall over the Eastern Visayas. NAVGEM shows a strong tropical storm, and due to the limited time frame perhaps it is a strong typhoon as well, favoring Mindanao/Visayas area. This really reminds me of what happened to the models during Bopha.

Have to agree on Bopha...GFS was showing a sharp recurve and ECMWF was the first to show a Mindanao landfall back then... I am not saying that this will also be the case now though, last month we had a strong steering ridge to the north too but Nuri managed to make its way NE thanks to the strong trough...

Idk if the trough is strong enough to dig in to a storm very far south... Or am I even seeing some system over the north at all. But I'd go with the ECMWF which is the best in forecasting tracks of future typhoons as I have observed... Yeah

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS showing a powerful system a tad south compared to the previous runs

[dexterlabio]

^Agreed the GFS runs are tending more to the west and south the past few runs....but in this run it's still shown to recurve..


The 00z parallel GFS run is farther west than the GFS solution itself, and it's shown to recurve some distance east of Luzon....

[dexterlabio]

[euro6208]

This storm looking like 2012's Bopha monster which struck Mindanao as a Cat 5 and second closest CAT 5 on record so close to equator and 2013's Haiyan which was a record monster overall and both occured in November...Timing of year, proximity to the equator, and a trend seen the last 2 years 3 years straight?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Next name is Hagupit and is a terrifying name for those who know Filipino

[dexterlabio]

It's a wait-and-see situation....given that we still don't have a system yet for better model initialization....but for now it's likely that a strong system will form, all the potential is there....the question is where it will go...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

After Hagupit, GFS shows a fairly strong storm unusually close to the equator and following the track of the previous storm.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GEM only showing the latter system [GFS Jangmi] quite strong

[euro6208]

Here it is consolidating in eastern micronesia. Spiral bands already evident and extending into the southern hemisphere...06Z GFS bottoms this into a monster 938 mb in the Philippine Sea..

[cycloneye]

What the models are showing is not 94W right?