WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

The anticipated invest 95W is here with high expectations to turn into a bonifide TC as the models are bullish on this so post away to see if we are going to have another Bopha.

95W INVEST 141129 1800 2.0N 158.3E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM:

THE LONGER RANGE PROBLEM IS THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
POHNPEI...WHICH DEFINITELY SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD AND MOVES IT
WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF GUAM...BUT THE GFS DEVELOPS IT QUICKLY INTO
A TROPICAL STORM NEAR CHUUK ON MONDAY...THEN TAKES IT SOUTHWEST OF
GUAM AS A TYPHOON WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING 35 KT WINDS TO
GUAM AS IT PASSES. THIS SEEMS WAY TOO FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH AND
AM LEANING HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW THE MARIANAS
FORECAST IS BASED ON ECMWF WINDS...WHICH STAY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
THE NEXT 10 DAYS. BUT WITH THE MODELS IN SUCH GREAT DISAGREEMENT...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND TUESDAY...AND RESIDENTS OF THE
MARIANAS SHOULD STILL KEEP UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF has landfall over Northern Mindanao, later passing through the Visayas as a moderate or weak tropical storm. GFS and Parallel GFS are showing a recurve as a strong typhoon. USUALLY the ECMWF wins in forecast track while the latter both win by intensity.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

95W INVEST 141130 0000 1.7N 158.9E WPAC 15 1010

[cycloneye]

ECMWF has landfall over Northern Mindanao, later passing through the Visayas as a moderate or weak tropical storm. GFS and Parallel GFS are showing a recurve as a strong typhoon. USUALLY the ECMWF wins in forecast track while the latter both win by intensity.

It will be interesting to see which model wins this battle of track and intensity.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't get why the GFS and GEM models are showing a recurve or northerly scenario that in fact, the ridge is strong enough to enforce a westerly track and that the storm is too far south to be affected hy the trough. I remember a pro met saying this during Typhoon Bopha, which is the best analog for this.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^It's too far south IMO for that track, there is also ridging to the north. Like what happened two years ago with Super Typhoon Bopha..

[dexterlabio]

This is also an opportunity to know if the new upgraded GFS (which is currently run in parallel) will be an improved version. It's interesting that the present GFS recurves the potential cyclone even before reaching 135E longitude, while the parallel run drives the system westward before finding a break in the ridge somewhere near 127E. If the first scenario busted, that would be a good reason to junk the present GFS model and favor the upgraded one.

[dexterlabio]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=soas&MODELL=gfs25&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=24&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

On the split EC at this point of time is the outliner both GFS models re-curve and the other models Gem, Nav follow the GFS track to a point.

You probably are right, there is a pretty good chance this one will recurve and miss the Philippines altogether.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I would lean on the EC, despite being an outlier.

[dexterlabio]

The next ECMWF run will be interesting....let's see if it will stick to its previous solution or cave in to the recurve scenario. Looks like all other models are hinting at a recurve now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Consolidating fast

[dexterlabio]

So the ECMWF stick with its gun and kept this potential cyclone towards Northern Mindanao. Hmmm who's gonna bust and who's going to be this year's best performing computer model?

[dexterlabio]

This system may well become of interest to the usa upsteam with the model intensity and re curve.

If GFS scenario pans out it will be like Nuri becoming a formidable typhoon but nothing under threat.

[euro6208]

JTWC now LOW CHANCE

No hints of a defined LLCC

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.5N 157.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
292241Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SHOWS DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED
BANDING. A 292301Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS MONSOON TROUGHING
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH, WHICH IS FUELING THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLP NEAR 1004 TO 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE INDICATING RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

NWS GUAM:

THE BROAD CIRCULATION/DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR 2N157E WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. MODELS STILL DIFFER QUITE A
BIT. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE AND MOVING
IT IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHER MODELS SEEM MORE REALISTIC BY
DEVELOPING IT MORE GRADUALLY TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST...AND SO ECMWF IS
THE MODEL OF CHOICE AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

The question is why the patterns are different on both GFS on recurving and ECMWF not doing that?

[dexterlabio]

I really want to hear what our promets have to say regarding this. 06Z NAVGEM does not show a recurve throughout the run. But both GFS and ECMWF are sticking to their guns. It looks like the models are also seeing a developing shortwave trough but each model has a different take on the trough's effect on the STR.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.Gaining some latitude and pressure is down to 1004 mbs.

95W INVEST 141130 1200 2.7N 155.8E WPAC 20 1004

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm thinking of a Fengshen 2008-like track a little more to the south, due to a tiny break in the ridging.