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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16641 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 29, 2014 1:57 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST SAT NOV 29 2014


.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH LIMITED AT THIS MOMENT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO. ALSO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC AND MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...INCREASING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW IS TO DEVELOP
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS TO BECOME AMPLIFIED AND DIP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FCST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR AND IFR ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ
DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO AFT 29/16Z. EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUST.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 7 FEET
OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL AND INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 50 50 50 50
STT 75 86 76 86 / 40 40 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16642 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 5:11 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SUN NOV 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUED
TO ERODE AS BROAD POLAR TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
A SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT WAS NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF TROUGH JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA PLACING PORTION OF THE REGION IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT/ENTRANCE AND CREATING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT PATTERN
ALOFT. THIS DEEP LAYERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THEN BUILD
ALOFT PLACING THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...INDUCED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SPREADS EASTWARDS. THIS IN TURN WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CONSEQUENTLY
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING WAS HELPING TO CREATE A LOW
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CREATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH ALOFT...CONTINUED TO PRODUCE AND ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND JUST OFF THE
COAST BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS. EXPECTED THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT PARTS OF THE NORTH
EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE MAINLY THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN
ISOLATED AREAS IN THE SAN JUAN METRO.

IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY THE TYPICAL EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS FOLLOWED BY FEW TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO THE INTERACTION OF AN ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN INDUCED
FRONTAL TROUGH. MORE TO COME ON THIS LATER IN THE WEEK BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
TIST AND TISX UNTIL 30/14Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS
30/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW
ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING
WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS
THE LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
UNTIL THAT TIME. AS FOR THE SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...THERE IS A MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT ALONG THE NORTH FACING COASTLINE OF PUERTO
RICO TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE AND THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN OFFICE IN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 50 50 50 30
STT 86 75 86 76 / 50 30 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16643 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 11:35 am

Plenty of rain is despicted by the models for late this week and next weekend in the NE Caribbean islands so stay tuned to this thread to get all the information.

Image
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16644 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 12:46 pm

What NHC mentions will not affect directly the islands but the tail is what apparently will cause the rain expected for late this week and next weekend so I am posting the 2 PM TWO:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure area could develop a few hundred miles
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands by Thursday or Friday.
This system could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics
while it moves slowly northward to north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


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Re: Caribbean - C A=Bad Weather for NE Carib late this week

#16645 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 2:13 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
308 PM AST SUN NOV 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO BUT THEY QUICKLY DISSIPATED OR MOVED EASTWARD. THIS
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND TO THE INDUCED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SPREADS EASTWARDS.


UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUED TO ERODE
AS BROAD POLAR TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A
SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT WAS NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF TROUGH JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA PLACING PORTION OF THE REGION IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT/ENTRANCE AND CREATING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT PATTERN
ALOFT. THIS DEEP LAYERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE IS TO THEN BUILD
ALOFT PLACING THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOUNTAIN OBSC...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN PR DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. THEREFORE...SHRA/TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ/TJPS. IN
ADDITION...SHRA MAY MOVE IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST FROM TIME TO TIME.
AT THE SURFACE...NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL 3023...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 5-6 FT. NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WIND WAVES
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. ANOTHER EVENT OF SWELLS
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NORTHEAST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 83 / 50 50 30 20
STT 75 86 76 85 / 30 30 30 20
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Bad Weather for NE Carib late this week

#16646 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 30, 2014 9:51 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
900 PM AST SUN NOV 30 2014

.UPDATE...HEAVY SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO HAVE DISSIPATED
WITH UP TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES BEING LEFT THERE BY RADAR ESTIMATES.
NOW SHOWERS ARE FORMING OFFSHORE DOWNWIND FROM PUERTO RICO EAST
AND SOUTH OF MONA ISLANDS AND IN A WIDE BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM
AGUADILLA AND ARECIBO NORTHEAST TO BEYOND THE FORECAST AREA AT
19.5 NORTH. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
WILL EVENTUALLY COME ONSHORE IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW THAT IS IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE 01/00Z
SOUNDING SHOWED NEARLY CALM WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT 1 KFT GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTH THROUGH 9
KFT. MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING. THEREFORE
HAVE RAISED POPS ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND IN THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
SHOWERS IN THIS MOIST FLOW SHOULD ALSO FORM ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS THEY DID ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS BANDS OF MOISTURE CROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.THESE ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GFS SHOWS A 77 KNOT JET MAXIMUM PASSING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT MONDAY. THE JET MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS WEAKEN
QUICKLY AT THE 250 MB LEVEL ON TUESDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
MOISTURE AT 700 MB IN A VERY WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. FLOW IS THEN VERY WEAK UNTIL THURSDAY. AT 850 MB
MOISTURE PERSISTS AND WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE IN
IN AREAS TYPICALLY FAVORED IN NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WITH THE USUAL
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS OF EASTERN EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND WESTERN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO
SHOW WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL DEEPEN AND EXTEND NORTHEAST OVER
HISPANIOLA THURSDAY. THIS WILL PULL FLOW AROUND SUCH THAT IT WILL
COME FROM THE SOUTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME PUERTO RICO
WILL MOVE INTO THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF A RIDGE TUESDAY AND AN
APPROACHING TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS THURSDAY UNTIL TROUGH PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WEAK ORGANIZATION AND RELATIVELY
GOOD MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO SPREAD A WET REGIME ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING BUT IT IS NOT YET KNOWN WHETHER THIS WILL MAKE FLASH
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY. AT PRESENT STABILITY INDICES FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD ARE RISING SUGGESTING MORE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT THAN
ONE WITH HEAVY CONVECTIVE EPISODES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION.
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Bad Weather for NE Carib late this week

#16647 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:36 am

Good morning. It looks like plenty of rain will fall late this week and the weekend as a trough will be in the NE Caribbean so stay tuned for the latest information.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST MON DEC 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUED TO ERODE AS BROAD POLAR TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT AREAS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUED TO ERODE AS
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SUBTROPICAL
JET SEGMENT WAS NOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA PLACING PORTION OF THE REGION IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT/ENTRANCE AND CREATING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NO GENERAL OR WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY THEN MEANDER OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS THIS HAPPENS...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WILL COMBINE
TO SPREAD A WET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THIS SITUATION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THRU
FCST PRD. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL090 ACRS RGN ASSOC
W/REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL BNDRY JUST N OF PR. TIL 01/14Z PASSING
-SHRA/SHRA EN ROUTE BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS AND ALONG N AND E
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR. L/LVL WND BLO FL100 FM NE 5-15 KTS...THEN
BACKING AND BCMG FM W ABV FL150 WITH MAX WND ARND 60 KTS NR FL400.
PASSING SHRA MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDS MAINLY AT
TJBQ...TJSJ...TIST TIL 01/14Z...W MTN TOP OBSC NR E INTERIOR
SECTION OF PR AROUND PICO DEL ESTE PR. SFC WND LGT/VRB TIL 01/14Z
THEN BCMG FM NE AT 10-15 KTS TIL 01/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
RISE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS ARE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID WEEK AS ANOTHER SWELL SET ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST
BEGINNING TUESDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND DESPITE
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 73 / 60 30 20 30
STT 86 75 86 76 / 50 30 20 30
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Bad Weather for NE Carib late this week

#16648 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 11:57 am

Here is a loop of the 12z GFS total precipitation that shows how the NE Caribbean is filled with rain between 2-4 inches from Friday going thru next Monday so stay tuned.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Bad Weather for NE Carib late this week

#16649 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 2:25 pm

Still uncertainty about what to expect in the islands about the anticipated rain event in the Eastern Caribbean from next Thursday going thru the Weekend so stay tuned to this thread to get the latest.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST MON DEC 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL INDUCE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...RESULTING IN A UNSETTLED PATTERN FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TRADE WIND PATTERN
RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT ALLOWED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH PR. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF JUST BEFORE SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT...SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE MOISTURE WILL DECREASE BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...REACHING A
MINIMUM OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A FEW MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.

PATTERN IS TO THEN BECOME MORE UNSTABLE LATER IN THE WEEK...AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...
INDUCING A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE LONG TERM FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH. SO WE WILL MONITOR HOW
THIS PATTERN UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. LLVL ENE WINDS OF 10-20 KT EXPECTED
BELOW 5K FT.

&&

.MARINE...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEN...THE OVERALL SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 83 / 30 40 40 40
STT 75 86 76 84 / 20 20 20 40
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Bad Weather for NE Carib late this week

#16650 Postby HurricaneFan » Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:Here is a loop of the 12z GFS total precipitation that shows how the NE Caribbean is filled with rain between 2-4 inches from Friday going thru next Monday so stay tuned.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html




Judging from that animation it looks like it will form in the SW Caribbean,then move ENE,then E,then NE as it exits the NE Caribbean on Tuesday?I noticed the rain piling up a bit in some of the NE Carib Islands on Mon and Tue.
Is it likely to stick around that long?
The forecast also mentions an upper level trough will move through the area before the Broad Low Pressure start affecting the Islands?Is this low pressure a trough like the first one or is it a Tropical Disturbance?
How likely is it that it will cause as much flooding as the last Major Weather Event?
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Re: Caribbean - C A=Bad Weather for NE Carib late this week

#16651 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:34 pm

HurricaneFan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Here is a loop of the 12z GFS total precipitation that shows how the NE Caribbean is filled with rain between 2-4 inches from Friday going thru next Monday so stay tuned.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html




Judging from that animation it looks like it will form in the SW Caribbean,then move ENE,then E,then NE as it exits the NE Caribbean on Tuesday?I noticed the rain piling up a bit in some of the NE Carib Islands on Mon and Tue.
Is it likely to stick around that long?
The forecast also mentions an upper level trough will move through the area before the Broad Low Pressure start affecting the Islands?Is this low pressure a trough like the first one or is it a Tropical Disturbance?
How likely is it that it will cause as much flooding as the last Major Weather Event?


Troughs move slowly so is possible that the rain event sticks for a few days.

Not a Tropical Disturbance but a low pressure embedded with the upper trough.

Early to say about how much rain will fall and if it rivals that big rain event.
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#16652 Postby Gustywind » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:38 pm

Our local Pro Mets say that very unstelled weather should begin Saturday and amplifies Sunday till Tuesday. Let's see if something happens from that, should it verifies first.
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Rain Event for Eastern Carib late this week

#16653 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 02, 2014 5:16 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE DEC 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY THURSDAY...RESULTING IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. A DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY THE
TYPICAL MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AND
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
WHILE MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THEN
MEANDER OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS
HAPPENS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...INDUCING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLE BEYOND BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE LOW. SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS FCST FOR ALL TAF SITES THRU AT LEAST 02/12Z.
HOWEVER...THE DOMINANT L/LVL NE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PASSING -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N AND E COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI. SOME -SHRA MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT TIST...
TISX...TJSJ AND TJBQ TIL 02/1400Z. BRIEF MTN TOP OBSC OVR ERN PR DUE
TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND -SHRA. WND WILL CONTINUE FM NE AT 10-15 KTS BLO
FL100...BCMG FM W AND GRADUALLY INCR W/HT TO MAX WND BTW 60-70 KTS NR
FL450. SCT-BKN LYRS BTW FL020-FL100... MSTLY CLR ABV EN ROUTE BTW PR
AND NRN LEEWARDS...EXCEPT FOR PASSING SHWRS AND FEW TCU.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 83 73 / 40 40 40 40
STT 85 75 85 75 / 20 20 40 40
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Rain Event for Eastern Carib late this week

#16654 Postby HurricaneFan » Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:37 am

So the forecast mention that the bulk of the moisture will remain to the south,but isn't that bulk going to exit through somewhere through the Caribbean eventually?
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Rain Event for Eastern Carib late this week

#16655 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 02, 2014 7:45 am

HurricaneFan wrote:So the forecast mention that the bulk of the moisture will remain to the south,but isn't that bulk going to exit through somewhere through the Caribbean eventually?


There is still uncertainty about the event so we will have to wait a couple of days. It may stay in the Caribbean Sea and dissipate or it moves over the islands so stay tuned.
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Rain Event for Eastern Carib late this week

#16656 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 02, 2014 1:11 pm

12z NAM loop that shows the rain event.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Rain Event for Eastern Carib late this week

#16657 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 02, 2014 2:03 pm

Less bullish on the rain event.I will leave the title of thread as it is now to see if there are changes or not to the forecast.If by tomorrow morning there is less chance to have a big rain event I will take it out.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST TUE DEC 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THU THEN ERODE AS
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVR THE SW ATLC. A SHEARLINE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRI NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY DAY ON WED AS UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS. THEN MOISTURE INCREASES WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WEAKENS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING MID-UPPER TROUGH OVR THE SW ATLC. WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE/SHEARLINE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA THU AND FRI FOR BETTER OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY FRI AFTERNOON. DRYING TREND EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FRI NIGHT AS SHEARLINE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW NEAR 25N
63W PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA. TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA
FRI NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH
LEADING TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FOR A NICE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLVL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE NE AT 10-20 KT BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH WED
MORNING THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 73 83 / 10 40 10 40
STT 75 85 75 85 / 10 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Rain Event for Eastern Carib late this week

#16658 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:19 am

Good morning. It looks like no widespread rains will occur with the rains that will fall during the next few days but still stay tuned just in case it changes.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY WILL FLATTEN OUT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER PUERTO RICO TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND A TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY WHILE WEAKENING. A BROAD TROUGH SINKS INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...OTHERWISE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THE LOW WILL EJECT QUICKLY NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP MOIST NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE AREA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STREAM OF STRONG HIGH
PRESSURES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MANY TINY SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WINDS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA KEPT THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THOSE IN THE
LOCAL WATERS UPSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS DAMP. AMOUNTS SEEN
OVERNIGHT WERE GENERALLY BELOW FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. MODELS
SHOW NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUING WITH THE SAME MOIST
FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING A TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE MID LAYERS
BECOME ALMOST SATURATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS. MOISTURE...HOWEVER...IS WEAKER BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KFT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH INCREASING FROM TUESDAY
AND TODAY...WILL BE MODEST. ALTHOUGH THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS DRY
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE BELOW 5 TO 6 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN RICH.
DEEPER MOISTURE PORTRAYED IN THE GFS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PREVIOUS
WEEKEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF THIS WEEK NOW APPEARS TO BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.
AND THIS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO ALL BUT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS REFLECTED IN LOWER 1000-850MB
THICKNESS LEVELS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME AS WELL AS THE THE USVI AND EASTERN PR
TERMINALS...CREATING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VCSH. ALSO...IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SHRA/VCSH POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ/TJPS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 03/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD ALL BE DOWN
BY THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS OF 7 FEET WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY TONIGHT. SEAS AT RINCON AND THE
NEAR SHORE SAN JUAN BUOY HAVE FALLEN BELOW 6 FEET...BUT MAY RETURN
BRIEFLY TO 7 FEET TODAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW
CRITERIA NECESSARY FOR A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THOUGH A FEW BREAKERS
IN FAVORED PLACES MAY EXCEED 10 FEET. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH IN MOST NORTH FACING BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 75 / 50 50 50 60
STT 84 76 85 75 / 40 40 50 60
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#16659 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 03, 2014 2:31 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST WED DEC 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT
DURING THE WEEKEND AS A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AS MID-UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS JUST EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SHIFTED MORE TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN MUNICIPALITIES
AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DIURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE NEAR SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT...
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
USVI...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT. PATTERN IS TO THEN BECOME MORE UNSTABLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS/DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF TROUGH...WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY LINGERING
UNTIL FRIDAY. OVERALL...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. THEN...A
SUBSIDENCE PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND...A LONG FETCH
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND SHRA/VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS
THROUGH AT LEAST 03/22Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST AT 10-20 KT
BELOW 10K FT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELL THAT IS AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ALL PASSAGES WILL PEAK TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER NE PULSE WILL BE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY BUT IT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 83 75 83 / 50 50 60 60
STT 76 85 75 85 / 30 50 60 60
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Re: Caribbean - C A: Trough moves thru E Carib Thurs thru Fri

#16660 Postby HurricaneFan » Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:20 pm

If the trough is just east of the Leeward Islands as it deepens,then will it be still producing rain in the Leeward Islands on Saturday?
Does It seems that the trough is going to move much faster than first forecasted?And it looks like instead of the bulk of moisture missing to the south of PR and the VI,it looks like the forecast is bringing it further north once again,correct?
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