WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WOW @ 130 knots peak.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020332
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
200 PM CHST TUE DEC 2 2014

...HAGUPIT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CANCELED FOR PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP AND SATAWAL
IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...FAIS...ULITHI AND
YAP IN YAP STATE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.1N 146.2E

ABOUT 405 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK (WENO)
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 180 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 515 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
ABOUT 465 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 815 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.2
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 24 MPH. HAGUPIT
IS EXPECTED TO CURVE BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT
DROP IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT HAS
PASSED SOUTH OF SATAWAL...AND WILL BE PASSING VERY CLOSE TO WOLEAI
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD FROM 65 TO 90 MILES FROM
THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT

[mrbagyo]

Hagupit is currently at CDO building process...and there goes another developing western spiral band.

[CrazyC83]

If we had Recon, they might already have found a typhoon.

[CrazyC83]

every year MU tries to turn a system northward this time of year.

Every year, it falls flat on its face. Mindanao would not surprise me to be honest

I agree, December is infamous for low riders. Mindanao is most likely IMO. Has any storm ever missed the Philippines to the south?

[mrbagyo]

every year MU tries to turn a system northward this time of year.

Every year, it falls flat on its face. Mindanao would not surprise me to be honest

I agree, December is infamous for low riders. Mindanao is most likely IMO. Has any storm ever missed the Philippines to the south?

Violet 1955 - one of the lowest storm I've googled but it still hit Mindanao.
Ana 1947?- it also crossed Mindanao
Maybe none for recorded history.

[euro6208]

22W HAGUPIT 141202 0600 6.2N 145.1E WPAC 60 978

Up to 60 knots!

[euro6208]

just look at that outflow...

[mrbagyo]

TXPQ28 KNES 020324
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 02/0232Z

C. 6.1N

D. 145.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH CONVECTION
TIGHTLY WRAPPED AROUND CENTER SEPARATE FROM STRONG BAND IN WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DT=3.5 BASED ON 6/10 WHITE BANDING. MET ON RAPID CURVE IS
3.5 AND PAT ALSO 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/2139Z 6.0N 147.6E SSMIS
02/0001Z 6.1N 147.1E AMSU


...SWANSON

TPPN11 PGTW 020608

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 02/0532Z

C. 6.10N

D. 145.12E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET YIELDS A 4.0
BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

JTWC


WDPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020348Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW AND RJTD
SATELLITE FIXES AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON IMPROVED
STRUCTURE AND HEDGED HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE IS
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, TS 22W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. TS HAGUPIT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. IN ADDITION TO THE
CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO SLOW AS A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS JAPAN AND CAUSES A BREAK IN THE
STR. ADDITIONALLY, A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND TAU 96 WHICH WILL CREATE A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
COULD RESULT IN QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT. AFTER TAU 96, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
THE INTENSITY AND COMPLEX STEERING PATTERNS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.//
NNNN

[talkon]

TPPN11 PGTW 020924

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 02/0832Z

C. 6.22N

D. 144.18E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, WITH .5 ADDED FOR WHITE, TO YIELD A DT OF 4.0. MET AND
PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

Should be a typhoon from JTWC next warning.

Also, the latest JMA forecast have Hagupit landfalling on Leyte some 50km south of Haiyan

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 2 December 2014

<Analyses at 02/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N6°10'(6.2°)
E144°10'(144.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 02/21 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°05'(7.1°)
E141°05'(141.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 03/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°05'(8.1°)
E138°05'(138.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°50'(9.8°)
E132°55'(132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°25'(10.4°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[Edited to add JMA forecast map]

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020921
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
800 PM CHST TUE DEC 2 2014

...HAGUPIT INTENSIFYING JUST SOUTH OF WOLEAI...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SATAWAL IN YAP STATE.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP
STATE.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP...FAIS AND ULITHI IN
YAP STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.5N 144.4E

ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH OF FARAULEP
ABOUT 195 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM
ABOUT 480 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 690 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.4
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 22 MPH. HAGUPIT
IS EXPECTED TO CURVE BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT
DROP IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HAGUPIT IS NOW
SOUTH OF FARAULEP AND WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF WOLEAI TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TYPHOON LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 1100 PM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 200 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

The islands of Yap just outside the cone of typhoon force sustained winds...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA forecasts us a direct hit OMG I'm afraid. I feel the adrenaline at the same time

[dexterlabio]

^Yeah these same areas again, as if they needed any more typhoons. I hope this forecast busts at some point.

[euro6208]

Indeed very scary...

An area impacted by Haiyan and killed 6,340 confirmed and still 1,061 missing might get another H storm in Hagupit?

[euro6208]

JTWC still an outliner in track while all asian weather agencies indicating a southern visayas hit...that could change...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^Yeah these same areas again, as if they needed any more typhoons. I hope this forecast busts at some point.

Reminds me more on Mike 1990 than Haiyan.

[dexterlabio]

As expected, latest operational GFS run shows a recurve as a strong typhoon, and again IMO that intensity is unrealistic. The previous runs at least show Hagupit weakening as it veers north.

Latest parallel GFS however shows the typhoon slowly tracking north, weakening to a TS then buries itself in Luzon.. That's a realistic cold surge effect on a storm in December, IMO.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

every year MU tries to turn a system northward this time of year.

Every year, it falls flat on its face. Mindanao would not surprise me to be honest

I agree, December is infamous for low riders. Mindanao is most likely IMO. Has any storm ever missed the Philippines to the south?

Violet 1955 - one of the lowest storm I've googled but it still hit Mindanao.
Ana 1947?- it also crossed Mindanao
Maybe none for recorded history.

AND MOST INFAMOUS BOPHA


SAME STORMS LIKE KATE 1970, MIKE 1990, IKE 1984 AND A LOT MORE

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC still an outliner in track while all asian weather agencies indicating a southern visayas hit...that could change...

This situation with the models reminds me of cyclone ITA every model had it captured by a trough except the EC as history shows the system was captured and EC totally busted. The JTWC track was spot on at the time.

But this is a different story. I realized something new: Don't get the credibility of a model from how they performed in certain storms especially those that are totally different. This is much closer to the equator than Ita.