WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Palau really needs to pay close attention, since this could be a big problem for them first.

It's amazing that storms can grow and intensify in the WPAC at such low latitudes. I have never seen a hurricane in the Atlantic at 6N - such a storm would slam into South America.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF after it makes landfall continues with Typhoon intensity in the South China Sea.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 2 December 2014
<Analyses at 02/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N6°35'(6.6°)
E142°05'(142.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N7°50'(7.8°)
E138°55'(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°05'(9.1°)
E135°30'(135.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E130°30'(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°40'(10.7°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 85kts.

22W HAGUPIT 141202 1800 6.6N 142.1E WPAC 85 959

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (22W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
500 AM CHST WED DEC 3 2014

...TYPHOON HAGUPIT CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAYANGEL AND KOROR IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND WOLEAI...YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.8N 142.0E

ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND NGULU
ABOUT 495 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND
ABOUT 515 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL AND KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.0
EAST.

TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 20 MPH. HAGUPIT IS
EXPECTED TO CURVE BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DROP
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH. TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC warning by JTWC has a immiment landfall in the area that Haiyan made landfall but hopefully it not comes to fruictition.

[Nairobi]

Landfall at least 5 days away.

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54 NM WEST OF
EAURIPIK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE TWO LARGE BANDING FEATURES
HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. A
021630Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC WHILE A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE APPEARS TO BE BUILDING IN. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, PGTW AND RJTD
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES, AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STR AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS A DEEP-
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS JAPAN AND SLIGHTLY RE-ORIENTS THE
STR. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON STATUS BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 250 NM SPREAD BY TAU 72 AS THE
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE STR IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALSO IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.
C. PAST TAU 72, A COL REGION ALONG THE STR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WHILE A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM
GAINING LATITUDE. THIS WILL DRIVE TY 22W ON AN OVERALL SLOW WESTWARD
DRIFT WHILE INCREASING VWS FROM THE SURGE EVENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE DATA, SHOWS
LARGELY VARYING SOLUTIONS IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH RESULTS RANGING FROM A SLOW RE-CURVE SCENARIO TO A FAST
STRAIGHT RUN TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. DUE TO THIS,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
800 AM CHST WED DEC 3 2014

...TYPHOON HAGUPIT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAYANGEL AND KOROR IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND WOLEAI...YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...6.9N 141.3E

ABOUT 180 MILES WEST OF WOLEAI
ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 460 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF KOROR AND
ABOUT 510 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 6.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.3
EAST.

TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 17 MPH. HAGUPIT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH. TYPHOON HAGUPIT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 1100 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM.

$$

MCELROY

[weathernerdguy]

Exceptionally scary storm, somehow reminds me of haiyan.

[cycloneye]

Pinhole eye showing up?

[dexterlabio]

18z GFS out......there goes your recurve

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 90kts.

22W HAGUPIT 141203 0000 7.5N 140.5E WPAC 90 956

[dexterlabio]

18z GFS out......there goes your recurve

18z still has the system captured further west as a off shore huger moving N.

It's not only a shore hugger in that run, it also heads west and dissipates west of Luzon. That is still quite a change....the past few days MU has shown this storm to completely recurve at 130E longitude. I think this tells us that the GFS is starting to lose consistency.

[Alyono]

and the EC is very consistent, slamming this through the southern Philippines in about 96 hours

[ManilaTC]

18z Parallel GFS tells another story. Hagupit to come really really close to Catanduanes then track north then weaken -- slam luzon moving SW as its being pushed by the NE surge...

Im looking more of a Samar-Bicol path for this one

[dexterlabio]

The banding eye seen few hours ago is gone. What happened? Is it the wind shear?

[mrbagyo]

Saw this on a local newspaper stand.

[cycloneye]

03:00z warning by JTWC.

[dexterlabio]

the southern part of the circulation looks flattened too. there might be something affecting it now?