WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[gatorcane]

High-res 18Z MU, with a 945MB Typhoon dangerously close to the Philippines:

[gatorcane]

Wide WPAC view GIF below puts things in perspective, looks to be booking west and if I were in the Philippines, I would be preparing.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/twpac/avn-animated.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[dexterlabio]

^it's a good thing though that run ends with a dissipating TD in Luzon.


TPPN11 PGTW 030314

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 03/0232Z

C. 7.87N

D. 139.50E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG (-
1.0 ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 5.5. PT AGREES; MET WAS
5.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/2311Z 7.43N 140.68E GPMI
02/2341Z 7.60N 140.52E MMHS
03/0028Z 7.47N 140.38E MMHS


LONG

[talkon]

KNES : 20141203 0232 7.9 -139.5 T5.0/5.0 22W HAGUPIT

[dexterlabio]

peek a boo, you got the wrong eye

[dexterlabio]

First forecast graphic I saw from PAGASA regarding Hagupit. Good thing they're showing the forecast track now even before it enters their Area of responsibility.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that data, 95 kt seems like the most likely intensity.

[dexterlabio]

on the other hand, the future of this storm as an extratropical cyclone looks bleak..model simulations that show a northward turn kill this system off before it even reaches 20N..

[euro6208]

Convection looks rather weak. AVN imagery shows a big decrease in black tops. Maybe a sign of an eye about to appear or could be shear.

[euro6208]

22W HAGUPIT 141203 0600 8.3N 138.6E WPAC 100 948

Now a Major Typhoon, Category 3!

[dexterlabio]

^Eitherway it will be too near and huge to affect landmass. If the GFS run few days ago turns out right that would be the best case scenario.


After looking a bit lopsided, the core is looking more compact and symmetric again...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030629
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (22W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
500 PM CHST WED DEC 3 2014

...TYPHOON HAGUPIT APPROACHING YAP AND NGULU...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI IN YAP STATE.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...8.2N 138.6E

ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 265 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 295 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOROR AND
ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HAGUPIT WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 8.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.6
EAST.

TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 23 MPH.
HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 105 MPH. TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM.

$$

M AYDLETT

[dexterlabio]

Super TY racking the coast line heading N or drifting W?

That doesn't look like the latest operational GFS run, does it? That's too near from the shore...

[dexterlabio]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030629
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (22W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
500 PM CHST WED DEC 3 2014

...TYPHOON HAGUPIT APPROACHING YAP AND NGULU...

At this rate there is a hefty chance to turn Cat5 even for a brief period before encountering unfavorable condition up north.....

[talkon]

Latest JMA forecast track is very close to Haiyan's landfall position

[stormstrike]

Almost an agreement for all agencies regarding forecast track



I don't like this track. Higher chance of a devastating storm surge.

[mrbagyo]

two hot towers exploding very near the center right now.

[dexterlabio]

first time i heard about the Asian model. Does the JMA use this also?

[dexterlabio]

the parallel GFS seems to be down atm..but the 06z operational run basically the same as previous...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING,
ALSO SEEN IN A 030342Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE, WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
BASED ON PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND DEEPENED CONVECTION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 22W REMAINS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY
HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 48, THE TYPHOON IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS JAPAN
AND SLIGHTLY RE-ORIENTS THE STR. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER INTENSIFY REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH
AROUND TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TY 22W.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE NORTHEAST SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AND
LIMIT TY 22W FROM GAINING LATITUDE. THIS WILL DRIVE TY 22W ON AN
OVERALL SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT WHILE INCREASING VWS FURTHER WEAKENS THE
SYSTEM. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36 AND WIDELY SPREAD AFTER TAU 48. NVGM, GFS, HWRF AND COAMPS-TC
SHOW A SHARP POLEWARD TURN WHILE GFDN AND JENS INDICATE A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AND STORM
MOTION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN