WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I feel unusually scared. For the first time in 24 years, JMA shows a very very near direct hit to Cebu City, while the KMA shows nearly the same with sustained winds of 173 km/h (10-min).

One thing I would not worry is storm surge But the wind and rain, UGH!

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 031428 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HAGUPIT (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222014
200 AM CHST THU DEC 4 2014

...MAJOR TYPHOON HAGUPIT GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM YAP AND NGULU...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR IN THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...9.0N 136.1E

ABOUT 105 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF NGULU
ABOUT 140 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 165 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR AND
ABOUT 245 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 660 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF MAJOR TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS
LOCATED BY IR AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE
9.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.1 DEGREES EAST.

TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 21 MPH.
HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH. TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 500 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM.


$$

ZIOBRO

[ManilaTC]

WOW Cold Dark Gray all over! good enough for a 7.0!

[euro6208]

Peak winds observed in Yap is 43 mph gust at the airport and 999.5 mb pressure...

Of course there are other locations much nearer to the center especially Ngulu, part of Yap state where winds were as high as 85-95 mph...

[euro6208]

uh-oh

2014DEC03 140100 5.0 958.6 +4.6 90.0 5.0 6.2 7.1 1.7T/6hr

WOW Cold Dark Gray all over! good enough for a 7.0!

Deepening convection and a warming center...Looking better every minute...I think it's rapidly intensifying...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

this is NOT going to recurve. Nothing synoptically indicates that

INDEED. The steering ridge is evident

[Alyono]

Alsol, I would not rule out an intensity similar to that of Bopha or even Haiyan

[stormstrike]

Actually, ALL Asian Agencies are leaning on a landfall.

I wonder if JTWC could "win" this. Hopefully.

[ManilaTC]

Decision area is in 10-12N, 130-135E... which Ruby (Hagupit) will enter in about 24 hours.

[euro6208]

One thing i noticed about EURO is that it literally takes Hagupit 3 days to cross the southern visayas region ...Very slow moving and potential monster flooding...

[ManilaTC]

TPPN11 PGTW 031512

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 03/1432Z

C. 8.98N

D. 136.00E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS <--- 115 kt, 213 kph CAT4

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. PT AGREES WITH
DT, WHILE MET YIELDS A 5.5 WITH NORMAL DEVELOPMENT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0921Z 8.55N 137.60E SSMS
03/1016Z 8.62N 137.28E SSMS
03/1041Z 8.62N 137.17E GPMI
03/1225Z 8.70N 136.70E MMHS


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

I'd say it's very close to a cat 4 now but still not quite there. No well define eye at the moment but is getting there fast. I sense JTWC could increase to at least 110 knots...

[euro6208]

RAW goes up now 7.2!

[Alyono]

no weakening during an eyewall replacement means one thing, Haiyan part 2

[cycloneye]

Superimpressive and not gaining much latitude.Saved loop.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I am thinking that a category 5 landfall is possible... As Alyono said, the EWRC completed without weakening the typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

OKAY, I FEEL TERRIFIED. Much more terrified than how I felt with Haiyan, which had a higher latitude than this.

[mrbagyo]

pretty large eye

[dexterlabio]

I think....Koror is getting well inside Hagupit's circulation...the storm is tracking closer to the island than what it should be according to forecast...

[dexterlabio]

I am thinking that a category 5 landfall is possible... As Alyono said, the EWRC completed without weakening the typhoon.

it's not yet even complete....wait till tomorrow morning's DMAX and see something scarier than this...