WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

OH MY GOD

Hagupit NI Hagupit

Filipino speakers will get this

[dexterlabio]

clearly this round of intensity forecasts is busting big time right now...

[dexterlabio]

OH MY GOD

Hagupit NI Hagupit

Filipino speakers will get this

Am familiar with the term and yes it means something menacing for a cyclone, but I find the local name "Ruby" more terrifying...sounds like a name of a mean lady. hah.

[euro6208]

OKAY, I FEEL TERRIFIED. Much more terrified than how I felt with Haiyan, which had a higher latitude than this.

Actually Hagupit is higher in latitude than Haiyan but only by a slight margin...

[mrbagyo]

if Hagupit will (knock on the wood) make landfall at cat 5 strength, that would make it 4 cat 5 landfalls for the Philippines in a span of 5 years. USA only has 3 on their recorded history.

[dexterlabio]

Actually Hagupit is higher in latitude than Haiyan but only by a slight margin...

yeah i remember Haiyan's eye passed very close to Koror, this one is in higher latitude...

[Dave C]

On the sat. loop posted a few posts back you can see the suppression in the outflow in the nw corner of the sat pic. pressing southward, maybe gets far enough south to suppress it some?

[dexterlabio]

a little shift to the west from 12z operational GFS run...though it still shows a recurve, it shows the storm brushing Catanduanes and passing east of Isabela...

[dexterlabio]

On the sat. loop posted a few posts back you can see the suppression in the outflow in the nw corner of the sat pic. pressing southward, maybe gets far enough south to suppress it some?

may I ask what gets far enough south to suppress the outflow of the storm?

[euro6208]

Crazy GFS if it pans out recurves Hagupit but then loops it back/bends it to the west...Maybe luzon landfall?

The whole philippines from north to south needs to watch this one!

[dexterlabio]

Crazy GFS if it pans out recurves Hagupit then loops it back/bends it to the west...Maybe luzon landfall?

The whole philippines from north to south needs to watch this one!

is that the 12z run? haven't loaded all the images yet. All I've seen so far is the storm passing east of Luzon then moves NE...

[euro6208]

Crazy GFS if it pans out recurves Hagupit then loops it back/bends it to the west...Maybe luzon landfall?

The whole philippines from north to south needs to watch this one!

is that the 12z run? haven't loaded all the images yet. All I've seen so far is the storm passing east of Luzon then moves NE...

12Z not included...

[dexterlabio]

^ohh I see....well the loop back to the west will bring only needed rain for the farmers in Northern Luzon...it's shown to weaken to a TD when that happens, so nothing really bad about it...in fact it will be quite beneficial to fill up the dams and ready them for possible drought during an El Nino...

[euro6208]

KNES agrees with PGTW on 6.0...could be higher but constraints..

TXPQ28 KNES 031529
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 03/1432Z

C. 9.0N

D. 136.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EYE THAT IS PARTIALLY CLOUD
FILLED. COLD MEDIUM GRAY EMBEDDED TEMPERATURE GIVES AN EYE NUMBER OF
6.5 WITH A LIGHT GRAY EYE AND COLD DARK GRAY SURROUNDING RING YIELDING
NO EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR A FINAL DT OF 6.5. MET IS 5.5 BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. PT IS 6.0. 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT
OF 6.0 DOES NOT ALLOW FOR BREAKING A 6 HOUR INTENSIFICATION GREATER THAN
1.0 THUS THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

03/1016Z 8.7N 137.1E SSMIS


...LIDDICK

[cycloneye]

Great discussion by Dr Jeff Masters:

Category 3 Typhoon Hagupit put on a respectable burst of rapid intensification over the past day, and is steaming west-northwest at 21 mph towards the same portion of the Philippine Islands devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. Hagupit is over very warm ocean waters of 30°C (86°F) and is under light wind shear around 10 knots--conditions which favor intensification into a 150-mph super typhoon by Thursday. The ridge of high pressure steering Hagupit will weaken late this week, putting the typhoon into a region of weak steering currents, making the threat to the Philippines uncertain. The storm will slow down and potentially turn north, keeping the core of the typhoon well out to sea, as predicted by this morning's 00Z and 06Z runs of the GFS model. Most concerning are the recent runs of the usually-reliable European model, which has been consistently showing a landfall near 18 UTC Saturday very close to Tacloban on Leyte Island, which endured the brunt of Super Typhoon Haiyan's fury. However, if Hagupit does hit the Philippines, it will be a much weaker storm than Haiyan was. There is less heat energy available in the ocean for Hagupit, and wind shear is expected to rise to the high range on Friday as strong upper-level winds tear at the storm. Heavy rains, not high winds and storm storm surge, will likely be the greatest threat for the Philippines from Hagupit.

Less ocean heat energy available to Hagupit compared to Haiyan
As I discussed in my November 13, 2013 post, Super Typhoon Haiyan's Intensification and Unusually Warm Sub-Surface Waters, when Super Typhoon Haiyan exploded into one of the most powerful storms ever recorded on Earth, the mighty storm took advantage of some unusually warm sub-surface waters. Haiyan intensified into a Category 5 super typhoon with 195 mph sustained winds, as rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center on November 7, 2013. Haiyan tracked over surface waters that were of near-average warmth, 29.5 - 30.5°C (85 - 87°F), but the waters at a depth of 100 meters (328 feet) beneath Haiyan during its rapid intensification phase were a huge 3°C above average, according to Professor I-I Lin of the Department of Atmospheric Science at the National Taiwan University. The sub-surface waters east of the Philippines have warmed dramatically over the past twenty years. According to Pun et al. (2013), "Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean", the depth to where ocean temperatures of at least 26°C (79°F) penetrates has increased by 17% since the early 1990s, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has increased by 13%. The warm-up is due to an increase in the surface winds blowing across the region--the trade winds--which have caused a southward migration and strengthening of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) and the North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC). However, during the past few months, the trade winds have weakened in the Western Pacific, as the ocean has moved towards an El Niño-like state (as of this week, ocean temperatures in the Eastern Pacific had reached the threshold of "moderate" El Niño conditions.) Weaker east-to-west blowing surface winds means that warm water in the Western Pacific can slosh eastwards towards South America, resulting in a weaker North Equatorial Current in the waters east of the Philippines, and less warm water and heat energy to fuel typhoons threatening those islands.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2871

[dexterlabio]

12z NAVGEM and Canadian model both agree on a westward track this time...though I noticed NAVGEM can be a little too inconsistent sometimes..

[Dave C]

Masters pointed out strong upper winds by Friday that's what I felt was beginning to show up downstream on the sat. loop.

[Alyono]

no clue where Masters is getting shear from. The EC is not showing much weakening as this approaches because it stays south of the shear. This would only be sheared if it moves north according to the MU

[ManilaTC]

22W HAGUPIT 141203 1800 9.3N 135.2E WPAC 120 933