Texas Winter 2014-2015

[aggiecutter]

Quick question for any that can remember, anyone recall the events that transpired during winter 1965-1966 DJF regarding sensible weather? The only thing I can dig is that it was snowy the second half for DFW. Some of the atmospheric state (QBO etc) that is going on has some resemblance and I'm working on some re-analysis on that winter to see if it could potentially be in the pool of analogs with 1976-1977-2009.

I was in the 1st grade during the winter of 65-66. I remember school being cancelled due to snow 3 or 4 times combined during January and February of that year.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I saw snow on the chart.....


Good call Ntx. Love to hear your opinion and any research that you come up with. Keep it coming!.

[Texas Snowman]

@stormchaser4850: MT @ClimateNewsCA: New #snow cover record set for U.S. - Largest #November (mean) snow extent ever measured. #Climate

[Nairobi]

To continue with data for 1965-66 from Weather Underground for KDAL:

November 1965 had 0 freezes and 0.82 inches of rain (average temps 70-55)
December 1965 had 1 freeze and 0.38 inches of rain (average temps 60-44)
January 1966 had 13 freezes and 0.50 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation (LEP) (average temps 48-34)
February 1966 had 10 freezes and 1.17 inches of LEP (average temps 54-38)
March 1966 had 1 freeze and 0.73 inches of rain (average temps 67-48)

So, 25 total freezes for the season.

[Ntxw]

Per FW official climo

DFW/back then recording station was Great Southwest Airport had 31 total freezes for the winter of 1965-1966
7.3 total inches of snowfall 4.4 during January and 2.9 inches in February
A low of 9F on the 23rd of January

It seems this was the 3rd cold winter in a row after the very cold winters of 1963-1964 and 1964-1965. The period in general from 1961-1966 seemed pretty harsh probably rivaling 1976-1979.

[aggiecutter]

This is from the Texarkana weather archives for January 19th through 31st of 1966. It also snowed on 2 different occasions in February of 66'.

19 35 32 30 30 26 21 92 77 57 30.30 30.22 30.16 10 8 2 13 8 - Snow
20 39 34 28 27 26 24 92 78 62 30.27 30.23 30.20 15 9 1 12 8 - Fog , Snow
21 35 31 27 31 25 21 96 80 67 30.22 30.15 30.08 10 6 1 9 7 - Fog , Snow
22 34 32 28 30 27 22 96 84 75 30.24 30.17 30.10 10 7 4 12 7 - Snow
23 39 29 19 21 19 16 88 72 47 30.33 30.27 30.20 10 9 5 7 4 -
24 32 30 27 30 26 21 96 87 75 30.20 30.16 30.09 10 5 1 9 7 - Fog , Rain , Snow
25 33 30 28 31 29 27 96 92 88 30.23 30.18 30.14 7 4 1 8 7 - Fog
26 39 36 30 31 28 24 89 80 67 30.38 30.33 30.27 15 9 7 9 4 -
27 53 39 25 31 25 22 88 65 37 30.38 30.30 30.18 15 12 7 9 6 -
28 39 36 28 39 31 25 97 86 60 30.15 30.05 29.94 10 5 1 16 9 - Fog , Rain , Snow
29 27 21 15 23 12 3 85 69 50 30.45 30.29 30.12 15 12 2 14 10 - Fog , Snow
30 30 20 10 11 4 -1 67 53 36 30.50 30.41 30.24 15 15 15 9 7 -
31 54 38 30 52 28 11 93 70 45 30.20 29.98 29.68 15 10 7 14 8 -

[Nairobi]

Dallas Love Field was a lot warmer than the Greater Southwest International Airport in 65-66.

The winter of 78-79 was significantly colder than 65-66 at Dallas Love Field.

56-36 in Dec 1978 versus 60-44 in 1965
42-29 in Jan 1979 versus 48-34 in 1966
51-34 in Feb 1979 versus 54-38 in 1966
Overall 50-33 in 78/79 versus 54-39 in 65/66

58-34 in Dec 1976
46-27 in Jan 1977
64-41 in Feb 1977
Overall 56-34 in 76/77

60-37 in Dec 1977
42-27 in Jan 1978
45-30 in Feb 1978
Overall 49-31 in 77/78

59-38 in Dec 1964
57-40 in Jan 1965
55-38 in Feb 1965
Overall 57-39 in 64/65

50-32 Dec 1963
56-35 in Jan 1964
55-35 in Feb 1964
Overall 54-34 in 63/64

[aggiecutter]

If I remember correctly, there was a moderately strong El Nino during January of 2000. The whole winter was very mild with the exception of the last week of January. On the 27th of January, one of those strong El Nino systems met up with some arctic air that had oozed down the plains. The two met over NE Texas, SW Arkansas, and SE Oklahoma, resulting in over a foot of snow for much of this region. The National Guard had to be called in to get stranded motorist off Interstate 30 between Texarkana and Mount Pleasant. The weather archive graph for January 2000 is below for Texarkana. On the 27th, Texarkana received 1.68 liquid equivalent precipitation(all snow), with temperatures in the mid to upper 20's.
1 Fog
Actual:
69 | 37 0.00
Average:
50 | 33 0.09
2 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
73 | 62 0.00
Average:
49 | 34 0.10
3 Rain
Actual:
70 | 48 0.01
Average:
50 | 34 0.18
4 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
48 | 30 0.00
Average:
49 | 31 0.02
5 Clear
Actual:
51 | 23 0.00
Average:
50 | 31 0.08
6 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
53 | 30 0.00
Average:
54 | 35 0.16
7 Rain
Actual:
55 | 45 0.49
Average:
51 | 34 0.06
8 Rain
Actual:
48 | 44 0.78
Average:
49 | 31 0.06
9 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
68 | 46 0.00
Average:
50 | 31 0.11
10 Clear
Actual:
68 | 39 0.00
Average:
51 | 31 0.17
11 Clear
Actual:
69 | 37 0.00
Average:
50 | 31 0.02
12 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
75 | 45 0.00
Average:
50 | 32 0.01
13 Scattered Clouds
Actual:
66 | 45 0.00
Average:
50 | 31 0.07
14 Clear
Actual:
52 | 34 0.00
Average:
52 | 33 0.03
15 Clear
Actual:
64 | 32 0.00
Average:
54 | 34 0.04
16 Mostly Cloudy
Actual:
69 | 55 0.00
Average:
55 | 36 0.16
17 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
73 | 60 0.00
Average:
54 | 37 0.19
18 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
69 | 52 0.00
Average:
53 | 38 0.09
19 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
63 | 48 0.00
Average:
53 | 35 0.24
20 Clear
Actual:
53 | 34 0.00
Average:
51 | 33 0.13
21 Scattered Clouds
Actual:
48 | 32 0.00
Average:
52 | 33 0.01
22 Rain
Actual:
64 | 45 0.00
Average:
55 | 35 0.02
23 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
55 | 37 0.00
Average:
54 | 35 0.08
24 Scattered Clouds
Actual:
45 | 33 0.00
Average:
56 | 37 0.10
25 Clear
Actual:
51 | 30 0.00
Average:
56 | 37 0.09
26 Snow
Actual:
35 | 28 0.17
Average:
54 | 36 0.08
27 Snow
Actual:
28 | 26 1.68
Average:
55 | 35 0.11
28
Actual:
30 | 26 0.01
Average:
56 | 36 0.10
29 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
33 | 25 0.00
Average:
57 | 39 0.17
30 Fog
Actual:
39 | 17 0.00
Average:
58 | 37 0.18
31 Scattered Clouds
Actual:
44 | 19 0.00
Average:
55 | 36 0.18

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What did the SST look like for 65-66? I would look it up myself but im unsure of where to look.

[Nairobi]

For September 1965 through March 1966:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/Gr ... et+of+Data

[aggiecutter]

1965-1966 was a Modoki El Nino, which have the tendency to produce higher than average snowfall for the southern plains. It certainly did for the Texarkana area that winter. Unfortunately, what looked liked a possible Modoki El Nino forming several months ago, has turned out to be a more conventional type of El Nino. The weather pattern and water temperatures are starting to bare that out.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:


Zonal (west to east) upper air flow across the country will lead to mostly cloudy and dreary conditions across SE TX for the next several days.

Cold front from Monday remains stalled over the Gulf waters this morning and has shown little attempt to return northward. Should start to see the boundary begin to move back northward later today with warm air widespread south of the boundary. North of the boundary low clouds, fog, and drizzle will continue with fog likely thickening from the coast northward as the boundary approaches from the south. Temperatures will remain on the cool side north of the frontal boundary with highs today in the 50’s and 60’s.

Warm front moves northward on Thursday in response to lowering surface pressures over west TX. This will result in warm air advection and a return of a warm and muggy air mass to the region. Rain chances will start to increase on Thursday (20-30%) for showers moving inland off the Gulf of Mexico. Short wave disturbance in the flow aloft will move across the region on Friday and this may be the next best chance of rainfall. Models show moisture levels pooling over the region Friday afternoon which even a chance for a few thunderstorms. May also see sea fog develop by late Thursday into Friday with warm dewpoints (60’s) spreading over the mid to upper 50 degree nearshore water temperatures.

Weak cool front attempts to slide into the region on Saturday, but it is questionable how far south that boundary makes it before it stalls. This will only help to continue the cloudy and damp conditions through the weekend and into early next week. May see increased rain chances again Sunday into Monday with another disturbance aloft moving over the region. No big cold weather outbreaks noted for the next 7-10 days with temperatures running near to above normal for early December.

[Ntxw]

Here comes the big +PNA and MJO, lets see how much we can squeeze out of this Nino. Sunshine will become a rarity.

[srainhoutx]

Here comes the big +PNA and MJO, lets see how much we can squeeze out of this Nino. Sunshine will become a rarity.

I see a parade of Pacific storms marching E. There appear to me to be at least 4 disturbances upstream that the guidance will have to resolve in medium range. I'm liking my chances of adding to snow across the High Terrain of Northern New Mexico for my week in the Taos/Angel Fire area mid January. Bring on the Pineapple express...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The cold pool of water near the west coast is a bit different from what we have today. That year seems fairly mild except for the one big cold blast at the end of Jan. Reached 19 at HOU.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Here comes the big +PNA and MJO, lets see how much we can squeeze out of this Nino. Sunshine will become a rarity.

Yeah, i think im correct but the current position for the MJO favors very warm weather, which is what we have been seeing, but its on the move to a more favorable, cold, area.

After looking at some charts, it wont come as a surprise that this year looks very similar to 76-77 and 77-78. 76-78 especially.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here comes the big +PNA and MJO, lets see how much we can squeeze out of this Nino. Sunshine will become a rarity.

I see a parade of Pacific storms marching E. There appear to me to be at least 4 disturbances upstream that the guidance will have to resolve in medium range. I'm liking my chances of adding to snow across the High Terrain of Northern New Mexico for my week in the Taos/Angel Fire area mid January. Bring on the Pineapple express...

I love that area, my family has a place south of Taos at around 9K and they have gotten over 3 feet already with much more to come from this pattern.

[ronyan]

I stayed in Taos Ski Valley in August in order to access the Wheeler peak trail head. Nice area, they're opening a ski lift up to the peak of one of the mountains this year.

[srainhoutx]

It is a beautiful area and they love us Texans. I have been traveling to the area over the years when conditions look or are promising for snow. I've even been as far S as Ski Apache and Cloudcroft when the pattern was just right. Looking forward to the trip and hopefully we can see the same pattern deliver further E across Texas after this brief relaxation in the zonal pattern. Climo wise we tend to do well in January and February with a weak Nino. Fingers crossed.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Been to Ski apache and Ruidoso. Great places and lovely towns. Love ski towns!