WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

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Dave C
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#321 Postby Dave C » Wed Dec 03, 2014 2:22 pm

I ran a water vapor loop and it would would need to climb to about 17-18 deg north to feel the shear also the outflow is linking up nicely to the westerlies now which might counter the lesser heat content of the waters under it. Is there some upstream feature that Masters may feel will push the shear further south?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#322 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 03, 2014 2:46 pm

TPPN11 PGTW 031821

A. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 03/1732Z

C. 9.25N

D. 135.25E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.5. MET IS AT 6.5,
RAPID DEVELOPMENT, AND PT IS AT 6.0. DBO CONSTRAINTS; CHANGE OF
1 OVER 6 HRS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


FRYE
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#323 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:00 pm

Brace yourself once it clears its eye.
Image
Image
Last edited by mrbagyo on Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#324 Postby Alyono » Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:09 pm

We likely will have a typhoon of a similar intensity as Haiyan
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#325 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:14 pm

:uarrow: Latest microwave shows it that way.Core is very small.

Image
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#326 Postby Alyono » Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:16 pm

latest JMA is close to a direct hit on Cebu City
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#327 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:19 pm

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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#328 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:35 pm

Upgraded to SuperTyphoon,Peaks at 160kts

Watchout in Manila.

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 22W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 9.3N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3N 135.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 10.4N 132.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 11.3N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 11.7N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.8N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.3N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.8N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 134.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#329 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:44 pm

3 cat 5's with winds of > 155 knots. El Niño is that you?
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#330 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:51 pm

mrbagyo wrote:Brace yourself once it clears its eye.
http://i.imgur.com/HgjON5F.gif
http://i.imgur.com/YpthCCp.jpg


Wow this thing may certainly be Haiyan part 2...hope it can somehow recurve before hitting the Philippines :eek:

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Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon:Upgraded to SuperTyphoon/Peak 160kts

#331 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 03, 2014 3:51 pm

JTWC's track is between the EC & GFS. Very few (if any) of either model's ensemble members are close to JTWC's track. Perhaps it's their way of trending toward the ECMWF solution?
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#332 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:03 pm

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Looking at the WPAC WV loop, that trough currently over Northeastern China just doesn't look strong enough to pick this up...
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon:Upgraded to SuperTyphoon/Peak 160kts

#333 Postby ManilaTC » Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:04 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, ALSO SEEN IN A
031758Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOST RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGE DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS DESPITE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES LIMITED BY CONSTRAINTS FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 22W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 48, EXPECT THE SUPER
TYPHOON TO SLOW DOWN AS A SMALL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND CREATES A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL START TO TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AT THIS TIMEFRAME.
EXPECT FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 160 KTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE
MODELS. THE GFS AND COAMPS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM MOVING POLEWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR THOUGH TAU
120 BEFORE SLIGHTLY TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA. OPPOSING THAT, THE
ECMF TRACKER HAS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST INTO CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES INDICATING THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS NOT
PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE TRACK OF HAGUPIT. THE
NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS BEEN SHIFTING BETWEEN THE TWO PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ENCOMPASSES ELEMENTS OF BOTH OF
THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING WELL ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS INCREASING IN SIZE. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TURN POLEWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE
STR THOUGH TAU 96. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, THE ELONGATED STR IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL CONTRIBUTE
IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LUZON.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO THE SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO, WITH THE SYSTEM EITHER SIGNIFICANTLY
RECURVING EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES OR TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES./
/
NNNN
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#334 Postby Alyono » Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:28 pm

"DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK."

What are they saying? There is massive divergence in this time period. Furthermore, there is ZERO model support for their track
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon:Upgraded to SuperTyphoon/Peak 160kts

#335 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:51 pm

really? 90 knots?
TY 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 21:45 UTC, 3 December 2014

<Analyses at 03/21 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N9°30'(9.5°)
E134°35'(134.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)


KNES now at 7.0
TXPQ28 KNES 032119
TCSWNP

A. 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 03/2032Z

C. 9.6N

D. 134.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...MG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY CDG FOR A DT=7.5
WHEN 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. A SIX HOUR AVERAGE DT WAS
CALCULATED TO BE 7.0 WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING THE RULE LIMITING CHANGES
IN FT TO 1.5 OVER 12 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY
Last edited by mrbagyo on Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#336 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 03, 2014 4:55 pm

Certainly doesn't look like 90K to me! Looks a lot stronger...saved animated IR GIF below:

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#337 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:08 pm

The new JTWC forecast track is exactly the same with 18z GFS track of Hagupit.
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#338 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:12 pm

WOW! a super typhoon!

Peak 160 knots??? :eek:
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#339 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:16 pm

KNES - 7.0

PGTW - 6.5

RAW Numbers - 7.2

We might have a category 5 at this rate!
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#340 Postby gatorcane » Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:16 pm

dexterlabio wrote:The new JTWC forecast track is exactly the same with 18z GFS track of Hagupit.


When is the JMA going to realize they need to put more weight into the European models for typhoon forecasting tracks, i.e. the ECMWF and UKMET, which both show Hagupit heading west through the Philippines?

By the way here is the 5 day UKMET:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Dec 03, 2014 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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