Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Texas Snowman]

Just once, I'd like to see the PWC headquarters in scenic southwest Austin look like a ski town!

Pulling for you this winter Portastorm!!!

[Portastorm]

Just once, I'd like to see the PWC headquarters in scenic southwest Austin look like a ski town!

Pulling for you this winter Portastorm!!!

You and me both!

It'll happen. One of these years. Or decades. Or ...

Meanwhile I'm hopeful that the current Nino-ish pattern will yield some beneficial rainfall for much of our state. Can't get enough of the liquid gold these days.

[Rgv20]

On Monday Evening/Early Tuesday we received just over 1 inch of Rain.....Average Rainfall for December is just under 1 inch!

[wxman57]

Just once, I'd like to see the PWC headquarters in scenic southwest Austin look like a ski town!

Pulling for you this winter Portastorm!!!

You and me both!

It'll happen. One of these years. Or decades. Or ...

Meanwhile I'm hopeful that the current Nino-ish pattern will yield some beneficial rainfall for much of our state. Can't get enough of the liquid gold these days.

I'm OK with snow in Austin over the next week, as I'll be in Orlando from Saturday-Friday. After then, it's back to summer!

Nothing nearly as extreme as that mid November Arctic front is on the horizon over the next 2 weeks.

[Texas Snowman]

There's the Wxman 57 we all know and love! Wondered where you've been as of late.

[downsouthman1]

Why is Shreveport NWS Office doing the AFD for Fort Worth today?

[gatorcane]

The Euro (and GFS to a bit lesser extent) show a "heat wave" in the long-range. 10-day Euro Temp anomalies map below:

[txprog]

If I remember correctly, there was a moderately strong El Nino during January of 2000. The whole winter was very mild with the exception of the last week of January. On the 27th of January, one of those strong El Nino systems met up with some arctic air that had oozed down the plains. The two met over NE Texas, SW Arkansas, and SE Oklahoma, resulting in over a foot of snow for much of this region. The National Guard had to be called in to get stranded motorist off Interstate 30 between Texarkana and Mount Pleasant. The weather archive graph for January 2000 is below for Texarkana. On the 27th, Texarkana received 1.68 liquid equivalent precipitation(all snow), with temperatures in the mid to upper 20's.
1 Fog
Actual:
69 | 37 0.00
Average:
50 | 33 0.09
2 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
73 | 62 0.00
Average:
49 | 34 0.10
3 Rain
Actual:
70 | 48 0.01
Average:
50 | 34 0.18
4 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
48 | 30 0.00
Average:
49 | 31 0.02
5 Clear
Actual:
51 | 23 0.00
Average:
50 | 31 0.08
6 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
53 | 30 0.00
Average:
54 | 35 0.16
7 Rain
Actual:
55 | 45 0.49
Average:
51 | 34 0.06
8 Rain
Actual:
48 | 44 0.78
Average:
49 | 31 0.06
9 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
68 | 46 0.00
Average:
50 | 31 0.11
10 Clear
Actual:
68 | 39 0.00
Average:
51 | 31 0.17
11 Clear
Actual:
69 | 37 0.00
Average:
50 | 31 0.02
12 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
75 | 45 0.00
Average:
50 | 32 0.01
13 Scattered Clouds
Actual:
66 | 45 0.00
Average:
50 | 31 0.07
14 Clear
Actual:
52 | 34 0.00
Average:
52 | 33 0.03
15 Clear
Actual:
64 | 32 0.00
Average:
54 | 34 0.04
16 Mostly Cloudy
Actual:
69 | 55 0.00
Average:
55 | 36 0.16
17 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
73 | 60 0.00
Average:
54 | 37 0.19
18 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
69 | 52 0.00
Average:
53 | 38 0.09
19 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
63 | 48 0.00
Average:
53 | 35 0.24
20 Clear
Actual:
53 | 34 0.00
Average:
51 | 33 0.13
21 Scattered Clouds
Actual:
48 | 32 0.00
Average:
52 | 33 0.01
22 Rain
Actual:
64 | 45 0.00
Average:
55 | 35 0.02
23 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
55 | 37 0.00
Average:
54 | 35 0.08
24 Scattered Clouds
Actual:
45 | 33 0.00
Average:
56 | 37 0.10
25 Clear
Actual:
51 | 30 0.00
Average:
56 | 37 0.09
26 Snow
Actual:
35 | 28 0.17
Average:
54 | 36 0.08
27 Snow
Actual:
28 | 26 1.68
Average:
55 | 35 0.11
28
Actual:
30 | 26 0.01
Average:
56 | 36 0.10
29 Partly Cloudy
Actual:
33 | 25 0.00
Average:
57 | 39 0.17
30 Fog
Actual:
39 | 17 0.00
Average:
58 | 37 0.18
31 Scattered Clouds
Actual:
44 | 19 0.00
Average:
55 | 36 0.18

Check the data. Quite strong La Nina that year. I remember it well. Relentless warmth until the one and only shot at the end of January. Set records for fewest number of freezes and earliest last freeze at DFW. I seem to recall our friend JB constantly warning about a freeze threat to the LRGV. Not sure the late January shot did that but I do not think he had a good year then. Kind of a landmark year because of the turn of the millenium. My wife spent a warm New Years eve in the hospital with pneumonia. I was on the couch with a 105 degree fever coughing my brains out. Our four kids did hot have a good Xmas that year....

[Portastorm]

Why is Shreveport NWS Office doing the AFD for Fort Worth today?

Sometimes technical difficulties prevent NWSFOs from issuing their products so they partner with those offices in closer geographic proximity.

[Nairobi]

Massive 500mb ridge.

[gpsnowman]

That is one nasty map Nairobi. I know you like warm weather but my goodness, that is warm all throughout North America. Well, except for Florida and California. Not only would that eliminate needed snow cover for cold down here, but it seems to me Canada would take a while to recover as well. Where would the cold come from? Pacific fronts can bring cold but how much? I am getting worried that December will be a total torch. Paranoia setting in.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is right there with the ECMWF and shows the "heat wave" impacting much of the lower 48 (except the Northeast) and Southern Canada...right through the next 14 days (of course long-range is subject to change)

For example, 180 hours below:

[hriverajr]

If that ridge actually comes to pass I will eat balut. I'm on record I don't think anything will happen to that extent. .. Look it up.. hehehehe or perhaps I just don't want to see it hahaah

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: That is one nasty map Nairobi. I know you like warm weather but my goodness, that is warm all throughout North America. Well, except for Florida and California. Not only would that eliminate needed snow cover for cold down here, but it seems to me Canada would take a while to recover as well. Where would the cold come from? Pacific fronts can bring cold but how much? I am getting worried that December will be a total torch. Paranoia setting in.

December may end up being quite warm but I still like our chances come 2015. Cosgrove called this one pretty good so far and he felt December would be more on the "torchy" side but the bottom falls out in January.

Don't worry, snowman. Let's let the heat misers have their one month.

[Texas Snowman]

They can't have Christmas. What kind of Christmas spirit can you get into when you're wearing shorts and flip flops?

Dec. 25th is coming up, not the Fourth of July!!!

[Ntxw]

The 18z GFS doesn't have that ridge, it has...an incoming trof? 240hrs nuff said. Cold or mild, I would still bet on a persistent damp pattern.

Balut hmm, I looked that up and yuck. I would not want to be on the wrong side of that bet.

[hriverajr]

The 18z GFS doesn't have that ridge, it has...an incoming trof? 240hrs nuff said. Cold or mild, I would still bet on a persistent damp pattern.

Balut hmm, I looked that up and yuck. I would not want to be on the wrong side of that bet.

Yep my wife won't even eat it and she is from there.

[Tireman4]

I am not buying it either. Models come and go. Trends are your friend..

[Ntxw]

The 18z GFS doesn't have that ridge, it has...an incoming trof? 240hrs nuff said. Cold or mild, I would still bet on a persistent damp pattern.

Balut hmm, I looked that up and yuck. I would not want to be on the wrong side of that bet.

Yep my wife won't even eat it and she is from there.

Well the good news, I doubt you will have to eat it. There is plenty of tropical feed in the Pacific to prevent such a ridge, if there is there's probably some kind of cut off low underneath. Does that count?

The pineapple express is making a big dent in the California drought even though it's bringing Pacific air, just what they asked for.

[hriverajr]

I can tell you right now the models are warped out at 10 days.. The surface temps according to GFS do not show blow torch. Will have to look at more models when I get home.. I still have students here.