WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[galaxy401]

Fourth year in a row for a potentially devastating south Philippines hit. They had an earthquake not that long ago which seems like an indicator nowadays. Pray for those in the path. Looks like a monster...

[euro6208]

Looks like they are expecting this to reach an 8.0 thus the 170 knots peak intensity.

[cycloneye]

I would like to get images close to peak,at peak and just after peak to post them at the first post of thread as I did with the Haiyan and Marie threads.I will begin to post those after I wake up.

[oaba09]

At this point, it would be better for people in southern Luzon and visayas to prepare even if the track is still uncertain. There are reports of panic buying in tacloban which is understandable considering what they experienced with haiyan...

JTWC's prognostic reasoning shows how tough it is to track this thing...

[CrazyC83]

At this point, it would be better for people in southern Luzon and visayas to prepare even if the track is still uncertain. There are reports of panic buying in tacloban which is understandable considering what they experienced with haiyan...

JTWC's prognostic reasoning shows how tough it is to track this thing...

I remember storms after Katrina there was panic due to the disaster being fresh on their minds...

[ozonepete]

I would like to get images close to peak,at peak and just after peak to post them at the first post of thread as I did with the Haiyan and Marie threads.I will begin to post those after I wake up.

That would be awesome. Very valuable for us to do analysis and especially comparisons. Thanks Luis.

[dexterlabio]

At this point, it would be better for people in southern Luzon and visayas to prepare even if the track is still uncertain. There are reports of panic buying in tacloban which is understandable considering what they experienced with haiyan...

JTWC's prognostic reasoning shows how tough it is to track this thing...

GFS shifting away from a sharp recurve scenario is enough for me to say that this one will hit any portions of the Philippines, from Eastern Luzon down to Visayas.

[dexterlabio]

for a solid 8.0, it only needs warmer eye. I don't know if it's just me but there is one image few hours ago that I can't tell if it's Haiyan or Hagupit. Oh the curse of late season typhoons...

[mrbagyo]

This season is just incredible. Having 3 typhoons nearly matching Typhoon Haiyan's Intensity within a year is just insane.

[RL3AO]

Its a very impressive storm, but just because something is a 155kt storm doesn't mean its close to Haiyan. That was still in a different world.



From @JMGarciaRivera

[tatertawt24]

Are the Philippines like the worst spot in the entire world for intense cyclones? Off the top of my head, Haiyan, Megi, Bopha... also Angela farther back.

[CrazyC83]

ASCAT just went in: wind field larger than first thought.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3_E4PfCQAAAw4Y.png from OPC Twitter

[RL3AO]

Are the Philippines like the worst spot in the entire world for intense cyclones? Off the top of my head, Haiyan, Megi, Bopha... also Angela farther back.

In terms of how often you get hit by intense storms? Yes probably. Taiwan is close too.

[mrbagyo]

Are the Philippines like the worst spot in the entire world for intense cyclones? Off the top of my head, Haiyan, Megi, Bopha... also Angela farther back.

In terms of how often you get hit by intense storms? Yes probably. Taiwan is close too.

Taiwan is the closest, but actually it's not that close.

[RL3AO]

Also, the Philippines are larger than Guam and Taiwan, that bumps up their typhoon impacts.

[euro6208]

2014DEC04 051400 7.7 904.6 161.0 7.7 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 15.24 -81.65 EYE 20 IR 94.9 10.49 -132.40 COMBO MTSAT2 19.1

Solid 7.7...

[euro6208]

Incredible storm

[dexterlabio]

Haiyan of course was more impressive at her peak than Hagupit, but it looks like this one is a far larger storm when it comes to size/diameter.

[somethingfunny]

Hagupit's motion appears to be a steady WNW direction now. Once it clears the latitude of Leyte Gulf and Tacloban we can breathe a small sigh of relief at least for that region and its' inherent storm surge risk.

It's quite unusual in this modern era of forecasting to have such a consistent spread between model forecast tracks so close to (potential) landfall. Tracking this storm will be a nail biter right up to the end.

What are we expecting to happen with Hagupit's structure once it approaches the coastline? Isn't shear still expected to increase and hopefully weaken the typhoon?

If it doesn't cause a recurve (looks increasingly likely that it won't) I suspect that the passing trough might allow Hagupit to grow larger in size but also perhaps weaker in intensity as it stalls off the coast of Samar or Luzon, before resuming the westward or even WSWward movement into the Philippines archipelago. The end result might be a smaller impact from wind and surge than Haiyan had, but catastrophic amounts of rainfall as a very large and very slow moving former supertyphoon makes its way west.

[dexterlabio]

I don't know what will be the implication of this development, but the 06z GFS run gave in to the Samar landfall. If the same scenario will be shown in the 12z and 18z run, I think we can all say that this typhoon is decided to strike...