WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[dexterlabio]

Hagupit's motion appears to be a steady WNW direction now. Once it clears the latitude of Leyte Gulf and Tacloban we can breathe a small sigh of relief at least for that region and its' inherent storm surge risk.

It's quite unusual in this modern era of forecasting to have such a consistent spread between model forecast tracks so close to (potential) landfall. Tracking this storm will be a nail biter right up to the end.

What are we expecting to happen with Hagupit's structure once it approaches the coastline? Isn't shear still expected to increase and hopefully weaken the typhoon?

If it doesn't cause a recurve (looks increasingly likely that it won't) I suspect that the passing trough might allow Hagupit to grow larger in size but also perhaps weaker in intensity as it stalls off the coast of Samar or Luzon, before resuming the westward or even WSWward movement into the Philippines archipelago. The end result might be a smaller impact from wind and surge than Haiyan had, but catastrophic amounts of rainfall as a very large and very slow moving former supertyphoon makes its way west.

The way it's moving now, Leyte Gulf will be in the southern portion of Hagupit's core...thus no threat of deadly surge like last year...well, unless it makes a sudden westward jog again....

[somethingfunny]

Hagupit's motion appears to be a steady WNW direction now. Once it clears the latitude of Leyte Gulf and Tacloban we can breathe a small sigh of relief at least for that region and its' inherent storm surge risk.

It's quite unusual in this modern era of forecasting to have such a consistent spread between model forecast tracks so close to (potential) landfall. Tracking this storm will be a nail biter right up to the end.

What are we expecting to happen with Hagupit's structure once it approaches the coastline? Isn't shear still expected to increase and hopefully weaken the typhoon?

If it doesn't cause a recurve (looks increasingly likely that it won't) I suspect that the passing trough might allow Hagupit to grow larger in size but also perhaps weaker in intensity as it stalls off the coast of Samar or Luzon, before resuming the westward or even WSWward movement into the Philippines archipelago. The end result might be a smaller impact from wind and surge than Haiyan had, but catastrophic amounts of rainfall as a very large and very slow moving former supertyphoon makes its way west.

The way it's moving now, Leyte Gulf will be in the southern portion of Hagupit's core...thus no threat of deadly surge like last year...well, unless it makes a sudden westward jog again....

On the other hand - and please correct me if history has shown this to be incorrect, because I'm not very familiar with Philippine geography or storm history - based on its' shape and its' shallow seabed, Lagonoy Gulf also appears to be susceptible to surge.

[dexterlabio]

On the other hand - and please correct me if history has shown this to be incorrect, because I'm not very familiar with Philippine geography or storm history - based on its' shape and its' shallow seabed, Lagonoy Gulf also appears to be susceptible to surge.

I was about to mention Lagonoy Gulf in Camarines Sur. Haha. Well, one typhoon came in close to Lagonoy Gulf this year, which was Typhoon Rammasun...there was no storm surge of Haiyan proportions but take note that Rammasun was only a Cat3, and I'm not sure if the angle of approach could spawn a storm surge. A stronger typhoon, Durian, also passed the area back in 2006 but there's no reported storm surge.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't get why JTWC and PAGASA have this going WNW continuously. It should decelerate and move WSW-ward following the ridging position and movement.

I see a direct hit in my city as very likely.

[dexterlabio]

I would be keeping a eye on where James Reynolds sets up camp the guys a freak when it comes to pinpointing landfalls in the eyewall.

He should be eyeing Northern Samar. If the typhoon's eye went to Bicol region or Leyte instead, he can easily move from Catarman within an hour.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think anywhere in LEYTE is the best choice for James. Hagupit is expected to move WSW according to JMA and Asian forecasts, and is loosely following the ridge.

[dexterlabio]

I don't get why JTWC and PAGASA have this going WNW continuously. It should decelerate and move WSW-ward following the ridging position and movement.

I see a direct hit in my city as very likely.

The typhoon's diameter is large (even larger than Haiyan) so Cebu is likely to experience 100kph+ wind either way. Its size is comparable to Nesat in 2011 based on wind field.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't get why JTWC and PAGASA have this going WNW continuously. It should decelerate and move WSW-ward following the ridging position and movement.

I see a direct hit in my city as very likely.

The typhoon's diameter is large (even larger than Haiyan) so Cebu is likely to experience 100kph+ wind either way. Its size is comparable to Nesat in 2011 based on wind field.

I'm talking about inner core track... I'll be conservative and say at least 200 kph over Metro Cebu, which is terrifying IMO

[dexterlabio]

Does anyone think there is a chance of weakening tonight? Because if it maintains this strength and DMAX comes tomorrow morning, it might just outdo itself.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Still the same, remains.

22W HAGUPIT 141204 1200 10.9N 131.2E WPAC 155 907

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Updated

22W HAGUPIT 141204 1200 11.0N 131.3E WPAC 150 911

[ejeraldmc]

It seems to be weakening. Will it still strengthen? Hmmm

[ejeraldmc]

The eye seems to be shrinking.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If it is weakening, it may be temporary. Why are you even questioning that it would strengthen?

[talkon]

The 12z JMA warning have the forecast track a little bit to the north, so looks like it is good news for those in Leyte Gulf.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I doubt that it would continue its westerly or WNW movement. I think it will start moving WSW anytime before Friday or tomorrow night.

[talkon]

Well, the latest JTWC warning is out and they forecast it to weakening as well as moving WNW/W from now thru the end of the forecast period.

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 11.0N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 11.4N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.6N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.7N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.0N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.0N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 130.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

[ohno]

I doubt that it would continue its westerly or WNW movement. I think it will start moving WSW anytime before Friday or tomorrow night.

Classic case of reverse psychology.

Anyway, latest jtwc brings this dangerously close to manila in 5 days.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I doubt that it would continue its westerly or WNW movement. I think it will start moving WSW anytime before Friday or tomorrow night.

Classic case of reverse psychology.

Anyway, latest jtwc brings this dangerously close to manila in 5 days.

Why in the world are they having it over Manila? The ridge is pushing the storm from WNW to WSW which is Visayas bound.