Texas Winter 2014-2015

#381 Postby **Tireman4** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:53 pm

What is funny that on Facebook ...the Weather Channel is all over it being a hot December ...

TeamPlayersBlue · #382 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 10:42 pm

I think i was Dec 2006, but it was super hot everywhere in late dec. Flowers starting blooming, but the nd half of winter was BRUTAL. It was icy at least 3 times in east texas where i went to school jan 2007 and on.

#383 Postby **TheProfessor** » Wed Dec 03, 2014 11:11 pm

we got about 6-8 inches of snow here just west of the airport too in 2007, I was in 4th grade then, I was like my schools weatherman lol

#384 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:00 am

0z GFS operational run showing a healthy parade of rain-making systems across the Southern Plains/Texas the next 16 days. Nino starting to kick in.

TeamPlayersBlue · #385 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:11 am

Portastorm wrote:0z GFS operational run showing a healthy parade of rain-making systems across the Southern Plains/Texas the next 16 days. Nino starting to kick in.

MJO. Time for it to swing around. Been in the warm phase for much too long!

weatherdude1108 · #386 Postby **weatherdude1108** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:25 am

Portastorm wrote:0z GFS operational run showing a healthy parade of rain-making systems across the Southern Plains/Texas the next 16 days. Nino starting to kick in.

Bring it!!

#387 Postby **orangeblood** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:34 am

Portastorm wrote:0z GFS operational run showing a healthy parade of rain-making systems across the Southern Plains/Texas the next 16 days. Nino starting to kick in.

Once we can get the North American Ridge to retrograde over to the Yukon then this winter party can get started....models are showing signs beginning week 3 as the core of the Aleutian Low backs west, right in time for the holidays :wink:

#388 Postby **srainhoutx** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:35 am

Portastorm wrote:0z GFS operational run showing a healthy parade of rain-making systems across the Southern Plains/Texas the next 16 days. Nino starting to kick in.

And this is just what the Doctor ordered for easing the drought across Texas as well as our neighbors in California, Southern Great Basin and the Southern Rockies!

#389 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:39 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Portastorm wrote:0z GFS operational run showing a healthy parade of rain-making systems across the Southern Plains/Texas the next 16 days. Nino starting to kick in.

And this is just what the Doctor ordered for easing the drought across Texas as well as our neighbors in California, Southern Great Basin and the Southern Rockies!

El Nino is kicking but not kicking officially.

#390 Postby **srainhoutx** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:40 am

orangeblood wrote:
Portastorm wrote:0z GFS operational run showing a healthy parade of rain-making systems across the Southern Plains/Texas the next 16 days. Nino starting to kick in.

Once we can get the North American Ridge to retrograde over to the Yukon then this winter party can get started....models are showing signs beginning week 3 as the core of the Aleutian Low backs west, right in time for the holidays

Yep. Even the CFS is suggesting the pattern changing near the Christmas/New Year time frame.

#391 Postby **srainhoutx** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:41 am

cycloneye wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
Portastorm wrote:0z GFS operational run showing a healthy parade of rain-making systems across the Southern Plains/Texas the next 16 days. Nino starting to kick in.

And this is just what the Doctor ordered for easing the drought across Texas as well as our neighbors in California, Southern Great Basin and the Southern Rockies!

El Nino is kicking but not kicking officially.

Tell that to California, the Desert SW and the Southern Rockies. If it looks like a Nino, quacks like a Nino, then it is likely a Nino...

TeamPlayersBlue · #392 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:58 am

Yeah just spoke to my parents in Yuma. Been raining ll morning. It never rains there. Maybe 4 times a year lol

#393 Postby **orangeblood** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:12 am

srainhoutx wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Portastorm wrote:0z GFS operational run showing a healthy parade of rain-making systems across the Southern Plains/Texas the next 16 days. Nino starting to kick in.

Once we can get the North American Ridge to retrograde over to the Yukon then this winter party can get started....models are showing signs beginning week 3 as the core of the Aleutian Low backs west, right in time for the holidays

Yep. Even the CFS is suggesting the pattern changing near the Christmas/New Year time frame.

If that Ridge connects with the one over Northeastern Siberia, things could get really really interesting!! :cold:

aggiecutter · #394 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:12 pm

Environment Canada predicting warmer than normal winter over much of Canada. Looks like if there is to be any wintry weather in Texas this coming winter, the cold will have to be manufactured by cold core upper level systems. I've seen that happen before, particularly in El Nino years.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-wi ... -1.2857371

#395 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 12:36 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Environment Canada predicting warmer than normal winter over much of Canada. Looks like if there is to be any wintry weather in Texas this coming winter, the cold will have to be manufactured by cold core upper level systems. I've seen that happen before, particularly in El Nino years.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-wi ... -1.2857371

Well, only the western half of Canada is expected to be warmer than normal, which means temps in the teens and single digits rather than below zero. :ggreen:

Either way the arctic fronts that make it down to Texas can still be plenty cold and drop us below freezing! :cold:

#396 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 8:15 pm

The Euro weeklies are shaking things up mid month, CFSv2 still looks warm. The +EPO signal will relax, it's not a strong signal for changes yet but it's moving. The JMA long range is heading towards blocking towards the second half of this month week 3 and 4.

In the very long range, some of the ensemble guidance is hinting towards maybe some possible activity chatter heading towards the holiday frame.

#397 Postby **Texas Snowman** » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:02 pm

Ahh the memories. One year ago tomorrow, four to five inches of sleet, traffic on Hwy. 75 and Hwy. 82 at a standstill in Grayson County for a couple of days. Cold, ice on the ground for a week, and a lot of wood burned in the wood burning stove. The kids missed five days of school with a Saturday and Sunday mixed in. One of the most intense winter storms I've ever experienced.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... mKLCDdjls0

#398 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:24 am

Texas Snowman wrote:Ahh the memories. One year ago tomorrow, four to five inches of sleet, traffic on Hwy. 75 and Hwy. 82 at a standstill in Grayson County for a couple of days. Cold, ice on the ground for a week, and a lot of wood burned in the wood burning stove. The kids missed five days of school with a Saturday and Sunday mixed in. One of the most intense winter storms I've ever experienced.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... mKLCDdjls0

Yep, it was a winter wonderland for sure. Work was closed only 2 days, and when it was time to head into FTW for work what is normally a 15 min drive turned into a 45 min trip of survival...lol.

Out my office window is the I-30/I-35 interchange and I enjoyed watching the show called "Cars on Ice".....lol, the spins, the slides, the oh crap...watch out moments. :froze:

During halftime I got to watch Roadgraders scrape cobblestone ice off the overpasses.

#399 Postby **srainhoutx** » Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:50 am

Ntxw wrote:The Euro weeklies are shaking things up mid month, CFSv2 still looks warm. The +EPO signal will relax, it's not a strong signal for changes yet but it's moving. The JMA long range is heading towards blocking towards the second half of this month week 3 and 4.

In the very long range, some of the ensemble guidance is hinting towards maybe some possible activity chatter heading towards the holiday frame.

Nice +PNA that has been modeled is certainly showing up nicely via the Euro weeklies around week 3. The pattern is much better in week 4 for an -AO/-EPO regime with a bit of -NOA blocking developing as Christmas nears. The week between Christmas and New Years Day may prove interesting if the longer range ensembles are correct.

Big O · #400 Postby **Big O** » Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:57 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The Euro weeklies are shaking things up mid month, CFSv2 still looks warm. The +EPO signal will relax, it's not a strong signal for changes yet but it's moving. The JMA long range is heading towards blocking towards the second half of this month week 3 and 4.

In the very long range, some of the ensemble guidance is hinting towards maybe some possible activity chatter heading towards the holiday frame.

Nice +PNA that has been modeled is certainly showing up nicely via the Euro weeklies around week 3. The pattern is much better in week 4 for an -AO/-EPO regime with a bit of -NOA blocking developing as Christmas nears. The week between Christmas and New Years Day may prove interesting if the longer range ensembles are correct.

Quick question Steve: I have always wondered if it is possible to have a +PNA and -EPO at the same time. What do you think?

Ryan Maue once told me that you can't have a western ridge and eastern blocking. As such, what about the a +PNA, -EPO, -AO, -NAO?

Everyone's thoughts are welcomed.

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