WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

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ohno
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#421 Postby ohno » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:12 am

How many typhoons are there????

Why are the models pointing in all directions?
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ManilaTC
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Re: Re:

#422 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:13 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:
ohno wrote:
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:I doubt that it would continue its westerly or WNW movement. I think it will start moving WSW anytime before Friday or tomorrow night.



Classic case of reverse psychology.

Anyway, latest jtwc brings this dangerously close to manila in 5 days.

Why in the world are they having it over Manila? The ridge is pushing the storm from WNW to WSW which is Visayas bound.


Uhmm... I think you are sitting in the border of -removed- now dude. I see no W dip.

GFS, NOGAPS and CMC appear to be in tight agreement now, and now it appears that Northern Samar-Bicol will be the main target.
If its going cebu's way, the turn has to OCCUR NOW, or not at all.
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#423 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:17 am

Looks like our friends from the US are still asleep. :lol: I'm interested to hear what they think now of this storm. Looks like the eye is shrinking. Could it be a new EWRC? And if it is, will it start weakening the system from hereon?
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#424 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:24 am

Yup... I'm now thinking of a North Samar hit
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#425 Postby ManilaTC » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:25 am

Checking on the AMSU, it looks like an EWRC is underway...
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#426 Postby oaba09 » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:31 am

JTWC is still not confident in their track...The best course of action is to be prepared and just wait. If it misses your city, just consider yourself lucky. It's better to be over-prepared than be caught by surprise...
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#427 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:32 am

Yes, I think an EWRC is likely occurring. Sadly, still plenty of time for this EWRC to finish before landfall.

00Z EC dips Hagupit to WSW between 00Z Dec 5, and 00Z Dec 6, resulting in a landfall location too close to Tacloban for comfort.

Praying for the Philippines. Looks like someone in this nation will receive quite a blow.
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#428 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:35 am

i think i had panic attacks... i overprepared. I MIGHT BUST :lol:
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:41 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#429 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:35 am

Some perspective:

Image

Excellent poleward outflow.
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#430 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:37 am

Image

Steady and slow weakening but still very much powerful...Metro Manila under the gun!

Image

Tropical storm force winds over a large area even tacloban getting some action...

Image

Close up of landfall, Mapanas Samar...
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#431 Postby stormstrike » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:48 am

Asian weather agencies (except for HKO) are still insisting on a west runner with a landfall south of Samar.

This is still alarming though one good thing is that it gained more latitude well above 11deg. At least surge would not be that bad in Tacloban.

IMO the wsw movement would not last long (if ever it happens). Bicol-Samar area are the most likely target.
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Re:

#432 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:53 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Yes, I think an EWRC is likely occurring. Sadly, still plenty of time for this EWRC to finish before landfall.

00Z EC dips Hagupit to WSW between 00Z Dec 5, and 00Z Dec 6, resulting in a landfall location too close to Tacloban for comfort.

Praying for the Philippines. Looks like someone in this nation will receive quite a blow.


Thank you for the concern, and for sharing your insights as well. :)


Bopha and Haiyan had a few EWRC before landfall, and while we still don't know what the EWRC will do on this storm we should all just prepare for the worst.
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#433 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Dec 04, 2014 9:53 am

BUSTED.

But yeah despite that the winds here may be strong.
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#434 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:01 am

Still quite a spread among the models in such a short time frame in regard to track.
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#435 Postby gatorcane » Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:04 am

Yes interesting spread but the ECMWF and UKMET move it WNW now but bend it back W or even WSW in 48 hours. My weight is going to those very reliable models.

Latest loop:
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon: 03:00z JTWC peak up to 170kts

#436 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:06 am

Although far weaker, only a tropical storm, washi in 2011 caused 1,268 deaths in Mindanao...that's 3 straight years of massive calamity...Will Hagupit make it 4 years?

Image
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Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#437 Postby cebuboy » Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:24 am

OK this is now headed to Manila. Still not a good news for a capital with million people out there. I panicked at first when I saw the first set of forecast heading this Cebu. I think based on my analysis, this is not as monster as last year Haiyan. Except of course in shorelines where there can be storm surge on first set of landfall.

I hope people there will get evacuated as early as possible. All of them. There is no excuse for fatalities this time.
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#438 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:26 am

Eyewall replacement cycle underway. Will we witness the rebirth of another monster when it's completed?

WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH A MORE ASYMMETRIC
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 12-NM
ROUND EYE AND INTENSE CORE CONVECTION. A 040800Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) AND A 041205Z
METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). BASED ON THE SMALL EYE, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. AS A
RESULT OF THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE DECREASED TO T7.0 (140 KNOTS) ALTHOUGH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T7.5 (155 KNOTS), THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 150 KNOTS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER WEAKENING DUE TO THE ERC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT STY 22W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSETTING MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). STY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
THROUGH TAU 72. BETWEEN TAUS 24-48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
SLIGHTLY AS AN APPROACHING, WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL PRODUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. BASED ON THE
INITIAL EVIDENCE OF AN ERC AND THE MODERATE VWS, STY 22W IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 48 THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU
48 AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF AND
JENS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT ON A
STRAIGHT-RUNNER TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. RECENT 500MB
ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE STR HAS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATED OVER WESTERN JAPAN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE COME
INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE
PHILIPPINES. HWRF AND JENS ARE THE PRIMARY OUTLIERS, INDICATING A
SHARP POLEWARD TURN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSES THAT THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS DEEP
ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STR, THEREFORE, THE RE-CURVATURE SCENARIO IS
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. STY 22W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES. OVERALL, THERE IS STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN
THE MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK WESTWARD WITH THE
DYNAMIC MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT.//
NNNN
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euro6208

Re: WPAC: HAGUPIT - Typhoon

#439 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:29 am

Very small eye...only 12 miles...
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dexterlabio
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#440 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:38 am

ohhh...I think it's losing its eye..
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