Texas Winter 2014-2015

[srainhoutx]

The Euro weeklies are shaking things up mid month, CFSv2 still looks warm. The +EPO signal will relax, it's not a strong signal for changes yet but it's moving. The JMA long range is heading towards blocking towards the second half of this month week 3 and 4.

In the very long range, some of the ensemble guidance is hinting towards maybe some possible activity chatter heading towards the holiday frame.

Nice +PNA that has been modeled is certainly showing up nicely via the Euro weeklies around week 3. The pattern is much better in week 4 for an -AO/-EPO regime with a bit of -NOA blocking developing as Christmas nears. The week between Christmas and New Years Day may prove interesting if the longer range ensembles are correct.

Quick question Steve: I have always wondered if it is possible to have a +PNA and -EPO at the same time. What do you think?

Ryan Maue once told me that you can't have a western ridge and eastern blocking. As such, what about the a +PNA, -EPO, -AO, -NAO?

Everyone's thoughts are welcomed.

If you recall we had such a set up in mid November that delivered the extremely cold early season Arctic outbreak across much of North America. Remember the coldest anomalies began in the Inter Mountain West and Plains and slowly spread east after about 5-7 days.

Interesting analysis from Mike Ventrice that is worth mentioning:

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/el-nino- ... -just-yet/

[aggiecutter]

WINTER CANCEL: Tropical season has begun

[Tireman4]

Woo Hoo.. the Cat 5 in the Gulf. Now we are talking. I was wondering when this would happen. All is right with the world now!!!!!!!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

WINTER CANCEL: Tropical season has begun

Not sure about that one, crazy Canadian. I had been looking for winter to return around then, but hey we mostly missed out on tropical weather so why not.

[Portastorm]

Gotta love the Canadian model. Always good for a hoot.

It always spins up systems during the tropical season (most of which never materialize) but this seems a little early even by its own standards.

[Tireman4]

Gotta love the Canadian model. Always good for a hoot.

It always spins up systems during the tropical season (most of which never materialize) but this seems a little early even by its own standards.

The Crazy Canadian. Next thing you know, it will spin up a snowstorm right on top of Austin...he he..I mean...cough..Crazy Canadian.

[srainhoutx]

What? No mention of the 12Z GFS in this thread. Nice storm across the Southern Rockies into the Panhandles of TX/OK and much colder air than the warm pattern we are currently witnessing. +PNA with ridging developing into Alaska. Nice pattern transition via the GFS for the cold weather lovers out there.

[TheProfessor]

This write up by NWS FWD describes cobblestone ice and how rare it is for it to occur in North Texas, which shows just how rare last years ice storm was. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=december72013

[Ralph's Weather]

This write up by NWS FWD describes cobblestone ice and how rare it is for it to occur in North Texas, which shows just how rare last years ice storm was. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=december72013

Thanks for sharing.

[Nairobi]

ECMWF progging a deep trough to approach Texas in about 8 days but without any arctic air to accompany it.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF shows nothing but much warmer anomalies for most of the lower 48 and Southern Canada through 10 days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Been on an MJO fix lately and understanding even more how it works. What are some good sites for information? I think its dominating our weather right now, as i think it typically does in El nino years. Interested in seeing how it effects the weather at the 500 MB level. Right now, the Pacific has so much activity going on and im curious to see how it reacts differently as the MJO approaches phase 7,8,1. Thanks guys! Always learning.

[Portastorm]

The 12Z ECMWF shows nothing but much warmer anomalies for most of the lower 48 and Southern Canada through 10 days.

Sorry but that's not entirely accurate. Days 9-10 of the 12z Euro run show normal to below normal for much of the western half of the CONUS.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF shows nothing but much warmer anomalies for most of the lower 48 and Southern Canada through 10 days.

Sorry but that's not entirely accurate. Days 9-10 of the 12z Euro run show normal to below normal for much of the western half of the CONUS.

It also noteworthy that the 12Z ECMWF suggests the West Coast trough slowly moving E which tend it agree with the OP GFS and GEFS meaning that pattern is beginning to shift. I believe we are on schedule to see an active colder regime along and E of the Continental Divide as we transition in the Christmas Holiday timeframe.

[MississippiWx]

I'm mostly a lurker of this forum, mainly because it's a Texas thing, but those of you who have access to the Euro weeklies should be drooling at what it shows later this month and into January. For those who don't, it shows monster ridging into Alaska and a persistent trough across the United States. Out of respect to Dr. Maue and his site, I will not post his maps. However, they make you do this --->>

Let's hope they pan out!

[Portastorm]

Thanks for jumping in and offering the information, MississippiWx!

I saw a tweet earlier today from Joe Bastardi that said the CFSv2 for January was looking colder and colder for the central/eastern CONUS every day.

[Nairobi]

The Climate Forecasting System is not showing much abnormally cold air for the week after Christmas. Not shown below, but the so-called polar vortex stays locked up around Baffin Bay.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not showing much abnormally cold air for the week after Christmas.

[img]http://oi58.tinypic.com/ic64nt .jpg[/img]

Thats not the Euro weekly. Thanks though!

[Portastorm]

Here's yet another voice in the growing chorus of weather enthusiasts and experts who are predicting winter returns with a vengeance to much of the nation in January:

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/new-successful-analog-guidance-predicts.html

[weatherdude1108]

Here's Hampshire's afternoon discussion.
I am honored that the EWX office has its own "Cavanaugh"
I like the practicality of his last sentence ("ALL
IN ALL THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND NOT TOO BAD FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR"). Hope he doesn't leave us. Happy Friday!!

00
FXUS64 KEWX 052109
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
309 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
CLEARING LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM DEL RIO TO BURNET. THE
KDFX VAD WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN INDICATING VEERING WINDS ALOFT WITH
NORTH FLOW NOW PRESENT ABOVE 4KFT. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF DRYING
AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO PUSH THE CLEARING LINE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE WIND SHIFT ALOFT IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH AXIS THAT IS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A MIDLAND TO
WICHITA FALLS TO OKLAHOMA CITY LINE. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT WITH THE MORNING LOWS OR HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S WHICH IS ABOUT A 5
DEGREE DROP ON AVERAGE IN COMPARISON TO TODAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES IN
TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. TOMORROW
AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES A HOLD AS A
WEAK RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY SLIDES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE SOME
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR SHOWER PRODUCTION. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEAK CAP
AROUND 700 MB THAT WOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION PROCESSES IN THE
LOWEST 3KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WOULD THEN LIMIT THE COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. THE NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS INVERSION AND
THUS HAS MUCH MORE QPF IN THE RAW MODEL OUTPUT. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST AROUND A 30 POP FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN IF THE
NAM VERIFIES AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH.

WEAK RIDGING RETURNS MONDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WHICH SHOULD END
PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
RAIN OF DRIZZLE CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE WHERE THERE IS BETTER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN A SATURATED LAYER UP TO 800 MB. SEVERAL
WEAK TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FORCING
WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MOISTURE LIMITED...AND AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RAIN AMOUNTS. SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S/50S FOR LOWS. ALL
IN ALL THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS AND NOT TOO BAD FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

HAMPSHIRE