WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It does look to be battling increased shear.



Latest analyzed shear from CIMSS

Yeah, there's an anticyclone east-northeast of the system that has been imparting easterly shear on the cyclone. This was evidenced by a lack of outflow in the southeastern quadrant even at its 155kt peak intensity and became much more obvious during the eyewall replacement cycle yesterday. If it weren't there, I think Hagupit would have intensified even further.

[gatorcane]

All hail King Euro?

Yes, King Euro did it again, showing everyone who's the King.

Yep certainly did, latest loop shows it heading slowly west and no sign of it recurving east of the Philippines like the GFS kept showing in it's medium range guidance earlier this week.

[euro6208]

Remember the atlantic storms when recon data always lead dvorak/adt numbers despite how weak they look?

Well i think Hagupit could be a category 5 right now...

Too bad no recon over here...

[ozonepete]

Doing another eyewall replacement

Just curious, what is that based on? A 1031z microwave pass showed a solid, single eyewall.

Sometimes it's harder to see than others. In this case the outer one is spiraling on to the inner one so they are not completely separate and distinct. But the outer band appears to be contracting again and the inner one is shrinking and filling in. Also sometimes they start but never complete due to adverse conditions. You never know until they finish.

[euro6208]

Satellite-derived hourly rainfall is massive...

[ozonepete]

Remember the atlantic storms when recon data always lead dvorak/adt numbers despite how weak they look?

Well i think Hagupit could be a category 5 right now...

Too bad no recon over here...

It's lost symmetry again. And look at the southern half. It's getting eroded quite a bit there, possibly due to some dry air coming down the mountains on the islands.

[ozonepete]

Wow really struggling now. Convection collapsing onthe southeast side for some reason.

[dexterlabio]

There could be another eyewall issue like 12 hours ago. Though this storm was able to complete that and even restrengthen almost back to Cat5. This time however it's stalling and might ingest more dry air before coming inland.

[Sanibel]

Forecast for steady weakening.

[ozonepete]

There could be another eyewall issue like 12 hours ago. Though this storm was able to complete that and even restrengthen almost back to Cat5. This time however it's stalling and might ingest more dry air before coming inland.

Not only that but the slow-down will cause upwelling of colder water which will add to weakening.

[ejeraldmc]

Looks like another ERC

[wxman57]

I think that the JMA has done an excellent job with their forecast, following the ECMWF. Taking a look at the JTWC and JMA forecasts from 3 days ago and the verifying position today at 12Z, the JMA's 72-hr position was 75nm due south of Hagupit's 12Z position today. In contrast, JTWC's track was way too slow (following GFS), and Hagupit's position is east of 130E this morning at 12Z. In fact, the JTWC didn't have Hagupit reaching the Philippines at all through the 7th (Sunday). That's what the GFS was forecasting.

Hagupit hasn't hit the Philippines yet, but JMA was forecasting landfall by 12Z tomorrow (6th). It appears that landfall will be around that time, but a bit north of JMA's track. At Hagupit's current speed, it should reach Leyte island northeast of Tacloban around 12Z tomorrow. This is about 100nm north of JMA's forecast for 12Z the 6th and 250nm NW of JTWC's forecast for 12Z tomorrow. Quite a difference.

JMA:


JTWC:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

^ Yeah, definitely looks like the JMA and ECMWF will deserve props for nailing this forecast several days out.

[ozonepete]

Hagupit hasn't hit the Philippines yet, but JMA was forecasting landfall by 12Z tomorrow (6th). It appears that landfall will be around that time, but a bit north of JMA's track. At Hagupit's current speed, it should reach Leyte island northeast of Tacloban around 12Z tomorrow. This is about 100nm north of JMA's forecast for 12Z the 6th and 250nm NW of JTWC's forecast for 12Z tomorrow. Quite a difference.

JMA:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/JMA-TUE.png

JTWC:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/JTWC-TUE.gif

Where are you forecasting landfall? What city? On the Samar coast? There are 90 miles of coast on Leyte island northest of Tacloban City.

[dexterlabio]

I will go ahead and sell PAGASA's forecast. I don't give credits to PAGASA for their forecasts often but now I think they are doing a pretty good job.




Only thing I complain about is that they tell the public more about the not-so-important things and say less about the more relevant info's... They need a new system in delivering weather updates to the public.

[dexterlabio]

this is interesting and very sad at the same time...you can see what desperation can lead people to...though I don't think a cave can really protect someone especially from a typhoon like Haiyan..


http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/12/05/14/samar-residents-evacuate-caves

[dexterlabio]

One thing I have to say....I do hope people out there are not only focusing on the potential wind damage and storm surge...before Haiyan, the Samar-Leyte area is known to be flashflood and mudslide-prone. The second deadliest tropical cyclone in the Philippines (Tropical Storm Thelma 1991) caused deadly flashfloods and landslides in Ormoc City, Leyte. Thelma was also an erratic-moving storm.

Also, there is a place called St. Bernard in Samar where a heavy thunderstorm event caused a landslide that killed over a hundred lives.

[cycloneye]

A. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT)

B. 05/1732Z

C. 12.13N

D. 127.93E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/1232Z 11.90N 128.52E MMHS
05/1325Z 11.93N 128.60E MMHS


LONG

[cycloneye]

Stays at 130kts.

22W HAGUPIT 141205 1800 12.1N 127.9E WPAC 130 926

[ozonepete]

Eye has disappeared. We need a microwave sat to find out what's happened