WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

22W HAGUPIT 141206 1200 12.0N 125.8E WPAC 110 941

[oaba09]

Latest from JMA

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Too bad that the map on this radar site was never adjusted.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Latest from JMA

Looks like tropical storm force winds over Cebu City, then. Yellow circle is at least 65 kph

[stormstrike]

Why is it that Leyte is just under Signal No. 2 when Leyte is experiencing very very rough weather? I wonder why Catanduanes is instead at Signal No. 3 when Leyte is nearer the landfall area and the forecast track.

I'm curious on how they designate those warning signals. hmm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Why is it that Leyte is just under Signal No. 2 when Leyte is experiencing very very rough weather? I wonder why Catanduanes is instead at Signal No. 3 when Leyte is nearer the landfall area and the forecast track.

I'm curious on how they designate those warning signals. hmm

Yeah. North Cebu, Leyte should be 3 while Albay, Catanduanes, Camsur should be 2 um hmmm

South Cebu should be 2, North Negros should be 2 and South Negros 1....

South Cebu [Minglanilla] is reporting strong winds near or at tropical storm force.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

FARTHER WEST, not enough. No longer showing Luzon Island landfall, but region MIMAROPA and Masbate,

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 125.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 125.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.3N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.8N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 13.2N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.6N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.0N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.5N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.8N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 125.5E.
TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

Expecting a northwestwards movement within 6-12 hours because of a trough passing in the north...



TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS UNTIL A WEAK TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH
ERODES THE STEERING STR, INDUCING A SLIGHT DEFLECTION TO A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. TYPHOON HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES.

[dexterlabio]

Yeah. North Cebu, Leyte should be 3 while Albay, Catanduanes, Camsur should be 2 um hmmm

South Cebu should be 2, North Negros should be 2 and South Negros 1....

South Cebu [Minglanilla] is reporting strong winds near or at tropical storm force.

Yeah I watched the live footage from Tacloban and the wind seems to be howling really hard. And stormstrike is power still on in your area? There is total blackout in the spot where the latest footage was taken. Though I think the Bicol region is getting lashed by winds and rains just as much as you guys down south. There is also widespread power outage in Sorsogon province right now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Yeah. North Cebu, Leyte should be 3 while Albay, Catanduanes, Camsur should be 2 um hmmm

South Cebu should be 2, North Negros should be 2 and South Negros 1....

South Cebu [Minglanilla] is reporting strong winds near or at tropical storm force.

Yeah I watched the live footage from Tacloban and the wind seems to be howling really hard. And stormstrike is power still on in your area? There is total blackout in the spot where the latest footage was taken. Though I think the Bicol region is getting lashed by winds and rains just as much as you guys down south. There is also widespread power outage in Sorsogon province right now.

I don't get why Catanduanes is Signal No. 3 whereas Leyte and extreme north Cebu is not...

[stormstrike]

Blackout in Tacloban since 2pm. non-stop rain and whistling winds since then.

[dexterlabio]

Blackout in Tacloban since 2pm. non-stop rain and whistling winds since then.

what are your means of posting online tonight? a mobile phone?

[CrazyC83]

Think of Signal 2 as a Tropical Storm Warning and Signal 3 as a Typhoon Warning. But I agree, the wind field was underestimated.

As for the landfall intensity? I would set it at 100 kt unless other data suggests otherwise.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Electricity and power are cut in Southern Leyte due to strong winds and rain.... according to my relatives there. They reported that the roofs were flying and winds howling hard, and asking for prayers.. It should be signal 3 there, PAGASA really has a northward bias.

[stormstrike]

mobile phone. what's more scary is that it's very dark outside..you could only hear the rain and the howling winds.

and the good thing is that the signal is still on.. unlike yolanda where the signal went off the moment the hell-like winds arrived.

[cycloneye]

For those members that may lose power/internet and not come here stay safe.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A city east southeast of us lost power

[ohno]

I have a question for you guys...

We are currently experiencing windless cold weather here in Manila. Is this because of the typhoon? If not, is the cold weather going to effect the storm's intensity once it goes NW?

[dexterlabio]

I have a question for you guys...

We are currently experiencing windless cold weather here in Manila. Is this because of the typhoon? If not, is the cold weather going to effect the storm's intensity once it goes NW?

yes it's chilly and very calm...I can still see the clear starry skies

yeah most likely it will weaken as it gets nearer to the north because of dry air...

[cebuboy]

Oh my God, just now there is an instance of frightening/very strong wind gust.. I'm in north of Cebu..