This was progged by most of the models as trof lifts away and Ridging builds. If indeed it's the OB to east of RIC with a neg tilt, we do not have a puny storm coming in.
TPC: minimal Cat-3 at landfall
Discuss.
Scott
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Scott_inVA
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JetMaxx
Scott...I'm very concerned...this is a lot like what occurred with Hugo and Hazel..
The hurricane weakens from the the sharp direction change....and drifts slowly northward. Then as the sharper trough approaches, Isabel accelerates like it's been shot out of a cannon...all the while intensifying as it TURNS BACK TO THE NW toward Cape Hatteras UNDERNEATH the high pressure to the north which enhances outflow....a "squeeze play" over warm waters and warmer Gulf Stream -- and the result is a deepening monster hurricane at landfall....just as the 18z GFS proggs (as does the ETA)....
I foresee Isabel making landfall as at least a 130 mph hurricane....and a 135-140 mph cat-4 won't surprise me. This synoptic pattern I see setting up also reminds me of the 1938 Long Island Express hurricane -- except instead of racing northward into Long Island and Connecticut, the orientation will be NW then NNW from between Cape Lookout and Manteo area - then rapidly inland west and south of Norfolk towards Richmond and Washington DC --- that's why it reminds me of Hugo...the turn toward the coast and acceleration will be toward the NW...then NNW after landfall.
It is potentially catastrophic Scott....and it's what Stacey Stewart was hinting at yesterday and James Franklin this afternoon about possibly rapid intensification just prior to landfall. If it happens, God help anyone that fails to evacuate the coast from Morehead City to at least Ocean City...and possibly southern Jersey (not to mention areas surrounding Chesapeake and Delaware Bay).
This is already a large hurricane...and global models forecast it to get even larger around time of landfall. In 1954, hurricane Hazel's devastating storm surge destroyed every pier from Myrtle Beach, SC to Cedar Island, NC...a 170 mile long stretch. That's what we may witness in 72 hours -- except farther north.
The hurricane weakens from the the sharp direction change....and drifts slowly northward. Then as the sharper trough approaches, Isabel accelerates like it's been shot out of a cannon...all the while intensifying as it TURNS BACK TO THE NW toward Cape Hatteras UNDERNEATH the high pressure to the north which enhances outflow....a "squeeze play" over warm waters and warmer Gulf Stream -- and the result is a deepening monster hurricane at landfall....just as the 18z GFS proggs (as does the ETA)....
I foresee Isabel making landfall as at least a 130 mph hurricane....and a 135-140 mph cat-4 won't surprise me. This synoptic pattern I see setting up also reminds me of the 1938 Long Island Express hurricane -- except instead of racing northward into Long Island and Connecticut, the orientation will be NW then NNW from between Cape Lookout and Manteo area - then rapidly inland west and south of Norfolk towards Richmond and Washington DC --- that's why it reminds me of Hugo...the turn toward the coast and acceleration will be toward the NW...then NNW after landfall.
It is potentially catastrophic Scott....and it's what Stacey Stewart was hinting at yesterday and James Franklin this afternoon about possibly rapid intensification just prior to landfall. If it happens, God help anyone that fails to evacuate the coast from Morehead City to at least Ocean City...and possibly southern Jersey (not to mention areas surrounding Chesapeake and Delaware Bay).
This is already a large hurricane...and global models forecast it to get even larger around time of landfall. In 1954, hurricane Hazel's devastating storm surge destroyed every pier from Myrtle Beach, SC to Cedar Island, NC...a 170 mile long stretch. That's what we may witness in 72 hours -- except farther north.
Last edited by JetMaxx on Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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paradoxsixnine
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