Nairobi wrote:That bowling ball trough/storm progged by the EPS is going to slowly weaken during its 48-hour traverse of Texas beginning a week from today. Probably all-rain, although it's an unusual system because of its 3 standard deviation 500mb level below normal heights. GEPS predicts a max of 2 inches of rain for Texas from this system. Precipitable water does not get extreme, hence the lower rainfall prog. None of Texas is below freeaing during the system.
Doesn't that contradict itself? The flow isn't very fast, so what's your evidence it should weaken? I thought you mentioned you only provide modeling and not analysis as you leave it to the pro mets? ECMWF (you also posts this quite often) is showing measurable snow across the high plains of Texas along with West Texas. I doubt that means none of Texas is below freezing.
You also posted the CFSv2 showed no arctic air after Christmas, well it has flipped 180. Feel free to mention that as well.