WPAC: HAGUPIT - Post-Tropical

[TheEuropean]

convection is growing near the center now:

08 UTC:


10 UTC:

[ohno]

convection is growing near the center now:

08 UTC:


10 UTC:

What does this mean?

[mrbagyo]

Been watching one of the philippine's news show...really amateurs even the forecasters seem to not know what they are talking about...news lead person talks about hagupit's eye and eyewall and the forecasters shows a satellite map but its really just a symbol of a typhoon with a hole in the middle and in fact theres really no eye or eyewall...

On other news, one female news anchor is getting rounds at social media because of her comment about the typhoon...and she's no other than the wife of the Philippine's DILG secretary. facepalm

[cycloneye]

Still hanging there.

[TheEuropean]

convection is growing near the center now:

What does this mean?

That the system may be holding better together than thought.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Been watching one of the philippine's news show...really amateurs even the forecasters seem to not know what they are talking about...news lead person talks about hagupit's eye and eyewall and the forecasters shows a satellite map but its really just a symbol of a typhoon with a hole in the middle and in fact theres really no eye or eyewall...

On other news, one female news anchor is getting rounds at social media because of her comment about the typhoon...and she's no other than the wife of the Philippine's DILG secretary. facepalm

Yes indeed, she said it in the credits of the primetime news program


Anyway, how is Cavite right now? I have a friend with relatives there...

[mrbagyo]

Anyway, how is Cavite right now? I have a friend with relatives there...

It's been raining here non-stop since morning albeit just moderately(but now it's starting to get heavy as I type this). There's some occasional gust but not that strong.


I'm in Tagaytay city (elev - approx 2000 ft. asl)- near the Cavite-Batangas Border
Where are they in Cavite? some low lying areas like Rosario, Noveleta, Cavite City, Bacoor and Kawit are quite flood prone.

[cycloneye]

JMA downgrades to Tropical Storm.

TS 1422 (HAGUPIT)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 8 December 2014
<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°40'(13.7°)
E121°10'(121.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°50'(13.8°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°)
E117°30'(117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°40'(13.7°)
E113°05'(113.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°00'(12.0°)
E109°00'(109.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Anyway, how is Cavite right now? I have a friend with relatives there...

It's been raining here non-stop since morning albeit just moderately(but now it's starting to get heavy as I type this). There's some occasional gust but not that strong.


I'm in Tagaytay city (elev - approx 2000 ft. asl)- near the Cavite-Batangas Border
Where are they in Cavite? some low lying areas like Rosario, Noveleta, Cavite City, Bacoor and Kawit are quite flood prone.

I think he said Rosario..

[ohno]

Dumping loads of rainwater here in south luzon and metro manila

[euro6208]

Down to 45 knots and south of Manila...

WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 31//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 51 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN
081057Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION, THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE
DUE TO LAND INFLUENCES; THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND AND OVERALL CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 22W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SCS. TS 22W WILL
CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND ACROSS THE SCS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
EVENT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS HAGUPIT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[ManilaTC]

Been watching one of the philippine's news show...really amateurs even the forecasters seem to not know what they are talking about...news lead person talks about hagupit's eye and eyewall and the forecasters shows a satellite map but its really just a symbol of a typhoon with a hole in the middle and in fact theres really no eye or eyewall...

Bet you are watching ABS-CBN (TFC) as they use that symbol even if its a tropical depression... The presenter isnt even a forecaster! Not unlike in the other station (GMA) where their weather presenter is a former head of PAGASA Weather branch.

[Sanibel]

The Weather Channel showing damage in city of Dolores.

[ejeraldmc]

It's still raining and the winds are still strong for more than 24 hours here in Batangas. The storm is not going anywhere!

[euro6208]

looks to have stalled over luzon...models have this strengthening as it heads to vietnam...

[euro6208]

40 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
082333Z F-18 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HINTS AT SOME CURVED BANDING
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI
ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND AND OVERALL
CURRENT STRUCTURE. UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 22W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND
THAT, TS 22W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ITS TRACK TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
THE RIDGING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA BUILDS IN NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INTERACTS WITH THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. TS HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES VIETNAM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION IN SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[TheEuropean]

Death toll now at 27:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/ ... 4420141208

[TheEuropean]

Moving slowly away from Manila and looking good now:

[euro6208]

40 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC); HOWEVER, A 090837Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC POSITIONED ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE
AND ANIMATED EIR WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU
24 BUT IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. TS 22W IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COOLER, DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AFTER
TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN
VIETNAM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

45 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 37//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING OVER THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 09221Z SSMIS AND 2215 CORIOLIS 37
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MICROWAVE
IMAGES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. TS 22W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AND AND THEN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A BUILDING STR TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. EXPECT TS 22W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE COOLER, DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE BEYOND TAU 12. UPON MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
VIETNAM BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND DISSIPATE
IVO HO CHI MINH CITY BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK,
WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN