Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,

I'm interested to get your take on the GOA warm pool. I've been watching SST's in the Pacific and noticed that the Gulf of Alaska warm pool anomalies relaxed following the November arctic blast. But I've been noticing that the anomalies are warming up again in the GOA and it looks like it's rebounded quite nicely. Could this contribute to the EPO going negative and the impending pattern change?

Its a factor but it is different than last year. Last year it was THE anomaly so the pattern reflected. It has since morphed into a +PDO signal so its a little different now. The PNA will likely see the bigger values but it still promotes some alaskan ridging. El Nino is a larger influence so everything is transpiring closer to what occured in the later 70s in a similar sst shift.

[gatorcane]

JB tweeted the 12z GEFS valid 0z 12/26, and it looks amazing for us in Texas and all areas east of the Continental Divide.

http://t.co/xwk9JdbDlC

Here is the temp anomaly graphic from GEFS for Christmas and trending colder for Texas:

[gboudx]

Just saw that, while I am dreaming of snow, we are driving down to NOLA on the 26th.

Oof.

We'll be driving down there on the 24th and then back on the 29th. Hoping for no icy roads.

[gatorcane]

GEM is coming in much colder in the long-range. Pattern shift?

[Ralph's Weather]

GEM is coming in much colder in the long-range. Pattern shift?

It is always nice when the models start to back what we have been thinking for a while.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If the cold comes back that week, that would be about 6 weeks since the cold left us

[JDawg512]

EWX continues to insist the weekend system will stay well north into Kansas. I'm hoping that is not the case since that would deminish rainfall amounts.

[Portastorm]

Yeah I saw that too. The trend is NOT our friend. Hopefully we see a reversal back to a more southerly route.

[Ntxw]

It's interesting on the headlines of this storm coming into California. After the NWS in SF mentioned an "atmospheric river" different terms are making news such as fire-hose, river in the sky etc. Of course for us weather folks it's simply the El Nino subtropical jet .

[dhweather]

If you look at the historical lake levels for NCTX, you see steep increases indicating the lakes filled fairly quickly. The most recent I can remember, either 2006 or 2008 I think, Lavon was over 9' low and within a few months time was so high, water was being released downstream. IIRC, most of the rain occurred in the Spring months. Once the ground gets saturated, these lakes fill up fast with additional rainfall.

It was Srping 2008 - it was amazing how the skies opened up. We went from -9 on Lake Lavon to opening floodgates in a matter of weeks.

[TheProfessor]

Yes I remember early summer 2008 quite well, I went to a church camp near Tulsa Oklahoma, and the lake we were at was like 20-30 ft above normal, the water went up to about the 2nd step from the top of a pier, the whole beach was under water including the rock climbing wall on the beach.

[dhweather]

EWX continues to insist the weekend system will stay well north into Kansas. I'm hoping that is not the case since that would deminish rainfall amounts.

I'm counting on it, because it happens 95.98685875% of the time.

[dhweather]

I've noticed a strong correlation In the multi decadal oscillation in the Atlantic and multi decadal droughts in Texas.

Lots of Atlantic hurricanes in the 30's, 50's, 2000-2012, same decades we've had bad droughts in Texas.

As NTXW pointed out last year, the Pacific is a major player in Texas weather as well.

So if we can get the Atlantic shut off for tropical activity, maybe we can finally resume normal, or GASP, above normal rainfalls, and I won't cry looking at my dead or dying yard and trees. I lost two more this summer.

[Rgv20]

Nice pattern change consistently showing up in the GFS Ensembles as we head to the Holiday Week if you like Winter!


0zGFS Ensemble Means 500MB Anomaly for Monday December 22



0zGFS Ensemble Means 500MB Anomaly for Wednesday December 24

[weatherdude1108]

EWX continues to insist the weekend system will stay well north into Kansas. I'm hoping that is not the case since that would deminish rainfall amounts.

Yeah, wonder why the models have trended that way(?). Earlier this week, I was hoping for just heavy rain and no severe weather. Now, I'm hoping for ANY RAIN.

I'm tired of this mist/drizzle nonsense that has been going on the past week or so. It just dirties the car and causes oily slippery road conditions

Interesting how much this trough differs in trajectory from the November 22nd trough. Hopefully we can get this parade of troughs going up through the pipeline.

[orangeblood]

EWX continues to insist the weekend system will stay well north into Kansas. I'm hoping that is not the case since that would deminish rainfall amounts.

Yeah, wonder why the models have trended that way(?). Earlier this week, I was hoping for just heavy rain and no severe weather. Now, I'm hoping for ANY RAIN.

I'm tired of this mist/drizzle nonsense that has been going on the past week or so. It just dirties the car and causes oily slippery road conditions

Interesting how much this trough differs in trajectory from the November 22nd trough. Hopefully we can get this parade of troughs going up through the pipeline.

Don't worry, the Canada to Greenland block is only forecast to intensify, forcing systems much further south, right through the 'pipeline'. All we need is to entrain a little more Arctic Air into the lower 48, this should do the trick....

[gpsnowman]

EWX continues to insist the weekend system will stay well north into Kansas. I'm hoping that is not the case since that would deminish rainfall amounts.

Yeah, wonder why the models have trended that way(?). Earlier this week, I was hoping for just heavy rain and no severe weather. Now, I'm hoping for ANY RAIN.

I'm tired of this mist/drizzle nonsense that has been going on the past week or so. It just dirties the car and causes oily slippery road conditions

Interesting how much this trough differs in trajectory from the November 22nd trough. Hopefully we can get this parade of troughs going up through the pipeline.

Agreed. All the cloud cover and leafless trees sure give a winter look. Just gotta be patient to get the feel. I would be very surprised if we are not monitoring something wintry next week for the week after.

[Portastorm]

EWX continues to insist the weekend system will stay well north into Kansas. I'm hoping that is not the case since that would deminish rainfall amounts.

Yeah, wonder why the models have trended that way(?). Earlier this week, I was hoping for just heavy rain and no severe weather. Now, I'm hoping for ANY RAIN.

I'm tired of this mist/drizzle nonsense that has been going on the past week or so. It just dirties the car and causes oily slippery road conditions

Interesting how much this trough differs in trajectory from the November 22nd trough. Hopefully we can get this parade of troughs going up through the pipeline.

Agreed. All the cloud cover and leafless trees sure give a winter look. Just gotta be patient to get the feel. I would be very surprised if we are not monitoring something wintry next week for the week after.

Meanwhile, this bodes well (or at least better) for your folks in North Texas who will have better rain chances that South Central or South Texas. Good luck. We all need it!

[Ntxw]

Nothing new to add to the great posts by many. We are moving through a transitional period of change. These bigger storms means something, if we get lucky something might just be cold enough for the holidays. After that there is very strong agreement on the ensembles of blocking and locking. If you expect winter to end before it begins you will be in for a shock. Those analogs are proving to be money.

[gatorcane]

Taking a look at the global models shows no arctic air diving into the lower 48 for the forseeable future. I am inclined to think that with the analogs we should start seeing a change towards the end of this month and into January. If you look back several months going back into the summer, we saw the "polar vortex" even then, last one was in November, so you got to think we will see it return this winter. I am thinking January could be the month we see another whopper coming out of Canada which could send much of the lower 48 east of the Rockies into a deep freeze. Time will tell.