WPAC: INVEST 96W

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96W INVEST 141209 0600 3.5N 145.0E WPAC 15 1010

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000
WWPQ80 PGUM 090755
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
555 PM CHST TUE DEC 9 2014

PMZ161-171-172-092300-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
555 PM CHST TUE DEC 9 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF YAP...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR 5N142E...WHICH IS
ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP...550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR
AND ABOUT 670 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TOWARD NORTHWEST AND AFFECT YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN YAP STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WESTERN YAP
STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAINFALL
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS YAP
STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND BECOME
SOUTHEAST AT YAP AND NORTHWEST AT KOROR ON THURSDAY. STRONGER WINDS
COULD YET DEVELOP AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS
BY THURSDAY.

COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS IF THE
DISTURBANCE INTENSIFIES MORE QUICKLY THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE EXACT MOVEMENT
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. PLEASE STAY INFORMED ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING ANY MARINE
ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

SIMPSON

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GFS - weak td/ts into the same areas hit by hagupit. more southerly and hits vietnam as a strengthening typhoon

EURO - weak low pressure into southern visayas

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000
WWPQ80 PGUM 100010
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1010 AM CHST WED DEC 10 2014

PMZ161-171-101200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1010 AM CHST WED DEC 10 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
NEAR 4N142E. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN YAP STATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY OVER YAP
ISLAND AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS OF NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS. LOCAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE NORTH OF
KOROR...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT KAYANGEL.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
25 MPH...AND COMBINED SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 8 FEET.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TO THE MOVEMENT AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. PLEASE STAY INFORMED ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IF PLANNING ANY MARINE
ACTIVITIES OR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. LISTEN FOR UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICES.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

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JTWC upps to LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N 141.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100036Z
METOP-B IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING, LOCATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 100035Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK, ELONGATED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
LOCATED OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

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NWS Guam:

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF YAP...AND LATEST GFS BACKS WAY OFF ON ANY
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT COMPARED WITH 24 HRS AGO. AS A RESULT...HAVE
SCALED BACK THE WEATHER FOR KOROR AND YAP...ESPECIALLY KOROR WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. HAVE DELAYED SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR YAP UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...BUT STILL CONTINUE THE WET
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRIMMED BACK WINDS AND SEAS AS
WELL FOR BOTH LOCATIONS.

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000
WWPQ80 PGUM 101156
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
956 PM CHST WED DEC 10 2014

PMZ161-171-110000-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
956 PM CHST WED DEC 10 2014

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
NEAR 4N142E. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IN YAP STATE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER YAP
ISLAND AS WELL AS THE ISLANDS OF NGULU...ULITHI AND FAIS. LOCAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN.

IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE NORTH OF
KOROR...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE AT KAYANGEL.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
IS UNLIKELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25
MPH...AND COMBINED SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 8 FEET.

NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE IS WEST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT ON THIS DISTURBANCE
UNLESS IT BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.

$$

ZIOBRO

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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N
141.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.