Florida Weather

[FireRat]

Well folks looks lite it's a safe bet we're in for the coldest December since 2010 here in South Florida!

Weather Channel right now has a low of 46 for Pompano Beach Thurs Morning! 48 Friday. 68 for highs until Saturday when we might top 70. For the inland suburbs this would translate to Low 40s for lows and highs near 65. Quite a long cooldown timewise considering we've been cool already for the last 2 days. Temps have been in the 50s around here overnight accompanied by FOG. Tonight is the 2nd night in a row we're getting frog moving in from the northwest.

Great Christmas style weather for sure, just hope the crops can evade a freeze further up the state. It will be fun as always to see how this will play out. What a difference a year makes, with almost no cold weather in November and December 2013, and loads of rain that November.

[northjaxpro]

Quite the pattern across the CONUS currently as the only region experiencing below average temps is right here over the Florida peninsula. Running within about 10 degrees below normal for most of this week in most areas of the peninsula, although a bit more so across South Florida. What a flip flop from last week, when here we were running 15 degrees above average temps for this time of year.

It will be cool with mins in the mid 30s expected here tomorrow morning and several mornings the rest of this week. Max temps will mostly be in the upper 50s to the low 60s for the rest of this week. Models show another cool air mass coming in this upcoming weekend, which should keep temps at least at opr slightly below average into early next week. A nice prolonged cool spell for the peninsula, perfect for the holiday season to get at least me in the spirit. The +NAO is preventing extreme cold, so only interior areas i.e. the Big Bend and Suwanee River Valley, and areas along and west of U.S. Hwy 301 across the northern peninsula may see a chance of a light freeze the next few mornings.

[NDG]

You are absolutely right northjaxpro about the only state experiencing a good 10-15 below average temps is the State of FL. The Positive PNA regime is ruling over the positive NAO and neutral AO making the state of FL be below average because of lower heights over us but because there is no real Arctic Air Mass to come down we are not talking about record level low temps by no means.
Temps this morning in isolated areas away from the coast & sheltered from the wind dipped into the 30s all the way down to Central FL!!
The next couple of morning will not be any colder than this morning because models show UL cloud cover to move over.

[Sanibel]

A two blanket night last night. This cold front will be slow to move out.

[TheStormExpert]

A two blanket night last night. This cold front will be slow to move out.

Tonight should be slightly colder depending on where exactly your located.

[HURRICANELONNY]

:uarrow: You are absolutely right northjaxpro about the only state experiencing a good 10-15 below average temps is the State of FL. The Positive PNA regime is ruling over the positive NAO and neutral AO making the state of FL be below average because of lower heights over us but because there is no real Arctic Air Mass to come down we are not talking about record level low temps by no means.
Temps this morning in isolated areas away from the coast & sheltered from the wind dipped into the 30s all the way down to Central FL!!
The next couple of morning will not be any colder than this morning because models show UL cloud cover to move over.

I think this happened in November. PNA was positive while NAO/AO stayed neutral or somewhat positve. Maybe we are putting too much emphasis on NAO/AO. For sure, when they go negative there usually is an artic outbreak but to get cool down here maybe just a +PNA will do. Im pretty sure if NAO/AO was neg. the noreaster would be a blizzard reaching way more people in the Northeast instead of rain. But I'm no expert.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: You are absolutely right northjaxpro about the only state experiencing a good 10-15 below average temps is the State of FL. The Positive PNA regime is ruling over the positive NAO and neutral AO making the state of FL be below average because of lower heights over us but because there is no real Arctic Air Mass to come down we are not talking about record level low temps by no means.
Temps this morning in isolated areas away from the coast & sheltered from the wind dipped into the 30s all the way down to Central FL!!
The next couple of morning will not be any colder than this morning because models show UL cloud cover to move over.

I think this happened in November. PNA was positive while NAO/AO stayed neutral or somewhat positve. Maybe we are putting too much emphasis on NAO/AO. For sure, when they go negative there usually is an artic outbreak but to get cool down here maybe just a +PNA will do. Im pretty sure if NAO/AO was neg. the noreaster would be a blizzard reaching way more people in the Northeast instead of rain. But I'm no expert.

The difference this time around is there is a blocking ridge over Eastern Canada preventing this East Coast trough from pulling out as fast as it usually does, instead it will take several days to fully pull out.

[NDG]

:uarrow: You are absolutely right northjaxpro about the only state experiencing a good 10-15 below average temps is the State of FL. The Positive PNA regime is ruling over the positive NAO and neutral AO making the state of FL be below average because of lower heights over us but because there is no real Arctic Air Mass to come down we are not talking about record level low temps by no means.
Temps this morning in isolated areas away from the coast & sheltered from the wind dipped into the 30s all the way down to Central FL!!
The next couple of morning will not be any colder than this morning because models show UL cloud cover to move over.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/201 ... rs_tpa.gif

I think this happened in November. PNA was positive while NAO/AO stayed neutral or somewhat positve. Maybe we are putting too much emphasis on NAO/AO. For sure, when they go negative there usually is an artic outbreak but to get cool down here maybe just a +PNA will do. Im pretty sure if NAO/AO was neg. the noreaster would be a blizzard reaching way more people in the Northeast instead of rain. But I'm no expert.

The pattern right now is nothing compared to November's pattern, is true that the PNA was positive in November for most of the month but the blocking was more over NW Canada and over Alaska while the middle of the country was in the deep freeze because the AO was way negative in the middle of the month. Central and Southern FL lucked out from seeing freezing temps, even frost, because the NAO was positive, the troughs that came across FL's longitude had a positive tilt so the Artic air mass that invaded most of the central and eastern US had a hard time penetrating down across the Peninsula.
The current trough is slow to retreat because there is blocking ridge all across Canada into the NW Atlantic, as mentioned by TheStormExpert.



November's average mid level height's and H85 temps anomaly:

[TheStormExpert]

Another question is what caused this kind of setup were in right now with a East Coast trough hanging around for days due to strong ridging over Canada and the NW Atlantic? Was it the current state that the NAO, AO, and PNA are in? Also, I'm curious if we could possibly see more troughs setup shop for nearly a week along the East Coast throughout the remainder of the winter?

Last time a setup similar to this occurred it was mid-January for over a week if I remember correctly.

[northjaxpro]

Very good discussion today, especially the posts of NDG and StormExpert about the current pattern. We are locked in a developing amplified Omega pattern and it will remain in place all the way into early next week. We can be thankful that we are not experiencing an arctic air mass with this pattern courtesy of the +NAO, but the upper level northwestly flow will continue to keep us dry and cool for several days to come statewide as thoroughly discussed on this page. The large storm system over New England is stuck in between the NW Atlantic blocking ridge and the developing amplified ridge over the midwest CONUS. It will remain this way for several days as the storm will be meandering around and will ever so slowly move off and away from the New England coast.

Lows in the 30s and frost is expected tomorrow morning here and the next few nights as well. Some spots may reach the freeze mark across North Florida. Upper level high clouds moving out of Texas and the western GOM may stream into the region late tonight into the pre dawn hours Thursday to help keep temps from cratering and to reduce the radiational cooling process. My thinking is that the upper level clouds may be too late to provide that effect. We will see.

Hope all of you down the peninsula are enjoying the prolonged cool spell. Remember last year, when all across the entire peninsula, one of the warmest Decembers ever on record occured. I think it is safe to say that this December will not be quite like last year, although we did have a warm start to it last week which I alluded to in an earlier discussion with StormExpert. Well, outside of the warm weather lovers, this is absolutely perfect season weather leading into Christmas, as good as it will get here across the peninsula,unless you are someone dreaming about the extreme rarity about having the white stuff for the holidays lol..... I guess you have to keep on dreaming...

But, I can always talk about the weather miracle we had in Jacksonville and across North Florida in December 22-23, 1989, which provided a once of a lifetime White Christmas. Now, that was a Christmas to remember for sure! Coming up on the 25th anniversary of that incredible event in a couple of weeks.

Just having a little amusing fun with the gang tonight on the thread.

[northjaxpro]

Checking the 8:00 p.m. obs, this is seting up to be colder tomorrow morning down in portions over the central and southern peninsula. Winds are light to calm and radiational cooling looks to be maximed down state by sunrise, barring any increase in high cloudiness.

Already 53 degrees at Sarasota, 57 at Fort Myers, 48 at Lakeland, 44 degrees at Cape Canaveral and 45 at Fort Pierce.

At 8:00, West Palm Beach was reporting 55 degrees, Fort lauderdale Exceutive Airport is at 54 degrees and Miami WFO is reporting 56 degrees.

[gatorcane]

Indeed northjaxpro, a chilly night across the entire peninsula with no location being spared, not even the Southern Florida locales, due to the calm winds. Here is the current temperature map, courtesy of weather.com:

[NDG]

Very uniform temps across central and S FL this evening, except where the winds have gone dead calm along I-75 in central FL. Good news is that east central FL dewpoints are staying in the 40s so if the winds stay up in some areas may see temps stay above as forecasted.

[northjaxpro]

High clouds have arrived just before sunrise this morning, and they just came in the nick of time to prevent the temp here at my locale to get to the freeze mark. Measured 34.2 degrees at 5:12 a.m , but currently is 35.3 degrees. Scattered frost is out there however.

Temps fairly uniformed all across the peninsula with 30s and 40s all throughout the region, except along the immediate SE FL coast, where temps are in the lower 50s, and of course The Keys with lower 60s. Nice crisp cool morning for all of us in the state for sure and this will continue. with the current pattern we have thoroughly discussed on this page. Have a great day everyone!

[NDG]

Dipped down to 41 degrees this morning at my neighborhood but across central & southern FL the temperatures were different depending where your locale, in central FL if you are in a large city, or near a body of lake/coastal waters the temps stayed in the 40s but rural areas dipped well into the 30s in many areas. The same thing in South FL where temps dipped well into the 40s in the suburbs of Miami while downtown Miami and beaches stayed in the low to mid 50s.
Mid 40s was widespread all the way down into interior areas of western Cuba away from the coast this morning.
BTW, the Euro did a very good job forecasting these temperatures, I remember looking at its forecast this past weekend showing 40s all the way down to Miami.

[Sanibel]

Daytime highs not the worst. Still mild.

[gatorcane]

GFS wants to bring some serious cold into Florida towards the end of this month. Check out those 12Z temps!

[HURRICANELONNY]

GFS useless that far out. But if it's a trend and euro comes inline then maybe. Just like the tropics it was useless that far out and most of the time 120hr out had plenty of phantom storms.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS useless that far out. But if it's a trend and euro comes inline then maybe. Just like the tropics it was useless that far out and most of the time 120hr out had plenty of phantom storms.

Not to mention the NAO and AO will need to dive negative along with a positive PNA. The NAO 2-week forecast shows some signs of it possibly trying to go negative but that far out you never know especially this year when it's barely gone negative for a week at times.

[HURRICANELONNY]

GFS useless that far out. But if it's a trend and euro comes inline then maybe. Just like the tropics it was useless that far out and most of the time 120hr out had plenty of phantom storms.

Not to mention the NAO and AO will need to dive negative along with a positive PNA. The NAO 2-week forecast shows some signs of it possibly trying to go negative but that far out you never know especially this year when it's barely gone negative for a week at times.

Yup, Yup, yup. Trend is are friend. Just have to see how it pans out around the holidays.