REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 93.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BAKUNG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1294 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SLOWLY DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS
FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE PERSISTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE IR ANIMATION AND PGTW FIX WITH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. BAKUNG IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE SAME WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DUE TO PERSISTENT LOW TO
MODERATE VWS. JUST AS THE STR RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN, NEAR TAU 72, A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THE RIDGE AXIS AND SLOW THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED WITH NVGM, AVNO, AND EGRR INDICATING
THE POLEWARD TURN SOLUTION WHILE HWRF AND COTC INDICATE A MUCH MORE
EQUATORWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID MORE CLOSELY IN
LINE WITH THE AVNO SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND
122100Z.//
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