Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF SHOWERS OBSERVED OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS
WELL AS THE REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NW PUERTO
RICO UNDER ERODING RIDGE...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY. THEREFORE SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DEVELOPING OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
EACH DAY. LINGERING MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...WITH
A SHARP DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...BY MID WEEK EXPECT
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES UNDER BUILDING RIDGE...NORTHERLY WINDS AND
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. BRIEF PASSING SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS
TIST/TJSJ/TISX OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. FOLLOWED BY
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER MAINLAND PR AFTER
13/18Z...CREATING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PR TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZE WILL
FAVOR LIGHT TO CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS...ONCE AGAIN...AFT 13/13Z
WILL INTENSIFY BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 10 20 50 50
STT 86 74 86 74 / 0 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY.


.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO THE RADAR HAVE SHOWED A LINE OF
CLOUDS FROM EL YUNQUE WEST TO THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA THAT
COULD GENERATE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THIS AREA.


A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY THIS PREFRONTAL FEATURE WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A HIGHER CHANCE FOR PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY...WITH A SHARP DECREASE ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...BY MID
WEEK EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH FEW PASSING
SHOWERS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES UNDER BUILDING RIDGE...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...-TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE OVER WEST/CENTRAL PR COULD CREATE MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ AND THE
VICINITY OF TJBQ. 8-12 KT SEA BREEZES WILL DOMINATE ALL PR TERMINALS
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES. 10-15 KT WESTERLIES ABOVE FL100 BUT INCREASING WITH
HEIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TODAY...HOWEVER HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA
ON MONDAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 85 / 20 50 50 50
STT 74 86 74 86 / 30 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
737 PM AST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROUGH OVR THE WRN ATLC WILL PUSH A CDFNT THROUGH
THE AREA MON. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD MID NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
TROUGH EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL ADVECT FROM THE WEST NEXT 24 HRS
LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED WEAKER IN TERMS OF HEIGHT FALLS NEXT 36 HRS BUT STILL SHOW
MID-UPPER FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO SFC FRONT AND STRONG ENOUGH HIGH
PRES BEHIND IT TO PUSH CDFNT THROUGH THE AREA MON AFTERNOON. SO
FCST IS FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE NEXT 3 DAYS ESPECIALLY
MON AND TUE AS CDFNT ENTERS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...FOR
TOMORROW THE WIND FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK FROM THE SOUTH AND WE APPEAR
TO BE IN A PWAT MINIMA. SOUTH FLOW TENDS TO RESULT IN VERY MINIMAL
SFC CONVERGENCE SO WILL TRIM POPS TO ISOLD ON SUNDAY BUT WITH
CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SUN MAINLY
OVER ATLC WATERS...MONA PASSAGE AND NORTH OF VIEQUES. CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY MON AND TUE AS CDFNT SINKS SOUTH AND NORTHEASTERLIES
ESTABLISH. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE AREA TUE AND LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. FLOODING APPEARS POSSIBLE TUE OVR EASTERN PR AS THERE
WILL BE SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT DUE TO STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS. A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TUE NIGHT BUT IT WILL BE SLOW
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND SHARP DRYING EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. MID-UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES AWAY
FROM THE AREA...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH BRIEF SHOWERS OBSERVED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
N AND NW PUERTO RICO UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER.

AS DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND USVI WITH SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. LINGERING MOISTURE
STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHARP DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THEREFORE UNDER THIS
PATTERN...TRADE WIND SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FEW PASSING
SHOWERS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...LIGHT PASSING VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE USVI/BVI TERMINALS
AND TJSJ TIL EARLY IN THE MORNING. AFTER 14/16Z...SHRA POSSIBLE
NEAR/IN TJSJ AND TJBQ. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLES WINDS WILL
DOMINATE TIL 14/13Z. AFT 14/13Z...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
5-10 KT...WITH A STRONG SEA BREEZE VARIATION INFLUENCE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 85 72 / 20 50 70 70
STT 85 72 85 72 / 30 50 60 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST SUN DEC 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AT THIS MOMENT SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.


AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONT STILL EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SHARP DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THEREFORE UNDER THIS PATTERN...TRADE
WIND SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AFTER 15/03Z...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLAND
PR/USVI TERMINALS AND TNCM AS SHRA AND LOW LEVEL SCT-BKN CIGS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE FCST AREA. SCT-BKN LAYERS
BETWEEN FL150-200 EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ABOVE FL150.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA TUESDAY. A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 70 80 / 50 70 70 70
STT 72 85 72 85 / 50 60 60 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
921 PM AST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MON AFTERNOON
AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MON NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE ON WED.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS EVENING WITH PWAT
UP TO 2.06 INCHES ON 00Z JSJ RAOB. WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL
RIDE ALG FRONT NEXT 12 HRS KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED OVER ATLC
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE
THE WEST COAST OF PR ON WSW STEERING WINDS. FRONT THEN CROSSES PR
AROUND 18Z MON WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NW TO NNE FOCUSING
SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVR NORTHEAST PR. AS NE WINDS STRENGTHEN MON
NIGHT AND TUE AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS EXPECT
PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE AREA PRIMARILY OVR NORTHEAST PR. DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SOME FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST PR MON AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN TUE NIGHT AS FRONT LOSES DEFINITION AND BEST
FORCING LIFTS AWAY. HOWEVER...NE WINDS BANKED AGAINST THE
CORDILLERA WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
THU MORNING IN THAT AREA. MID-UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS FRI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST MON DEC 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS IS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
AFFECTED MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA...SOME SHOWERS WERE HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE 15/00Z RAOB INDICATED THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS JUST
OVER 2 INCHES...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE MOIST SECTION OF THE FRONT TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VERY CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL STAY EITHER JUST TO THE NORTH OR
JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK AS SEEN BY THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND THE DEW POINT MODEL FORECAST...WHICH INDICATES THAT
THEY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT...SOME DRYING STARTING EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. AT THAT TIME THE FRONT SEEMS
TO HAVE FRAGMENTED AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH A
FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE CAUSING PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING
IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER THE
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL PR AND USVI TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD
TERMINALS IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY AFT 15/18Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND
INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS ON TUESDAY. WINDS THEN REMAIN NE 10-15 KT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT IN MIXED NNE
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 70 81 71 / 70 70 70 40
STT 84 73 83 74 / 60 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1153 AM AST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL OVER LAND AREAS HAD DISSIPATED
BY EARLY TO MID MORNING...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
FORMING ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL JUST BEFORE NOON. FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY...THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF PR WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES...SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED TO A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST MON DEC 15 2014

SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AFFECTED
MAINLY ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN DURING THE DAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CONVECTION WAS FORMING ALONG THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE 15/12Z RAOB CONTINUES TO INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST
OVER 2 INCHES...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL
REMAIN IN THE MOIST SECTION OF THE WEAK FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST
BELOW 2 INCHES. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...SOME DRYING STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...ALONG WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE CAUSING PASSING
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN PR DURING THE NIGHT
TIME PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES DEVELOPING IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE
AFTERNOONS. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR/WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN FR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT
ALL PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS
ARE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KTS...DECREASING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. LOCAL
BUOYS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS O 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 81 71 83 / 70 70 40 40
STT 73 83 74 84 / 60 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BUT WILL SPREAD WESTWARDS AND BUILD NORTH OF
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE INDUCED PREFRONTAL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT CONTINUED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL REESTABLISH
NORTH OF THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME AS A FAIRLY MOIST WEATHER
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DISSIPATING FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...CAUSING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE SHOWERS ARE
STILL PRESENT. THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHEAST
WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE IN WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES COMING DOWN TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP...CONSIDERING THAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND 1.85 INCHES BY
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY REDUCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS THE
CLOUD COVER. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO ANY SORT
OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT SO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE JUST SHOWERS WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED THEN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER DIPPING BELOW ONE INCH. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED THOSE DAYS AS NOT ONLY IS THE MOISTURE VERY
LIMITED BUT THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE STILL UNFAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...EVEN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
POSITIVE LIFTED INDEX AND A NEGATIVE K-INDEX. SO A RATHER STABLE AND
DRY PATTERN EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK IF THE MODELS WERE TO VERIFY.


&&

.AVIATION...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS STILL POSSIBLE
AT JSJ/JBQ/IST AND NCM IN THE MORNING HOURS...AND AFT 16/17Z AT JPS
AND JMZ. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS DUE TO WINDS OF UP TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTH FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 81 71 / 60 40 40 20
STT 84 73 84 73 / 60 50 40 20

[cycloneye]

Look at how much rain is falling today in the Northern part of PR as the Cold Front is stationary. Hopefully,things will begin to calm down later today as flooding has been occuring.Saved image.

[cycloneye]

Good news as things are drying out.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1228 PM AST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES...MODERATE SHWRS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS
THE AFT APPROACHES. SOME FLOODING FROM RAINS THIS MORNING...MOST
IMPACT ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND NE PR. SOME INTERMITTENT SHWRS
ACROSS USVI. IMPROVING CONDS ACRSS NE PR THIS AFT.

[cycloneye]

Impressive rainfall totals that the Cold Front has brought to parts of PR on this Tuesday December 16.

[cycloneye]

Here are some images of the flooding today in PR.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATED NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH TOTALS OF
MORE THAN 3.5 INCHES OBSERVED OVER THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN. REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION...ENHANCED THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED WITH ONE FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
FOR FAJARDO MUNICIPALITY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA...PUSHING THE REMNANT OF
THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH VERY DRY AIR EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TO THE REGION THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY DRY
AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL SOMEWHAT DURING THE WEEKEND AS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THEREFORE MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS STILL POSSIBLE AT JPS AND JMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VCSH AND -SHRA AT REMAINING TAF SITES. EAST...NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
12 KTS WITH SOME ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WIND AS UP TO 18 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 71 82 / 40 40 20 20
STT 73 84 73 85 / 50 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1045 PM AST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
BAND ALONG DISSIPATING FRONTAL/BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE CONTINUED TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY PLACED
THE REGION IN THE DIVERGENT SIDE/RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE OF THE JET MAX.
THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
LAND CONTINUED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
JET DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BAND SUNK
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED
SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT EARLY MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IN RECENT DAYS. RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO WHERE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL HAD OCCURRED WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO LESS THAN ONE INCH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUG THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 17/0450Z JSJ ACARS SHOWED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
COME DOWN TO 1.56 INCHES FROM 1.80 INCHES OBSERVED EARLIER AT
17/00Z ON JSJ RAOB. CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
ON NORTHEAST WINDS. SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA NE OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA NEXT 36 HRS AS A
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WITH AXIS OVR THE SERN GLFMEX SWINGS RAPIDLY
EWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVR THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SUSTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LEADING TO FAIR WX CONDITIONS. OVERALL...VERY DRY WX
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH MID
50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA AND
ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...-SHRA POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE VICINITY OF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCT/BKN LAYERS
AROUND FL100 ACROSS TISX AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 17/12Z. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT BELOW
FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT
IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 3.82 INCHES WAS SET
YDAY AT THE SJU LMM INT`L ARPT. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 1.43
INCHES SET BACK IN 1910.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 75 82 75 / 10 10 10 10
STT 84 76 85 76 / 20 20 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOW RAIN
CHANCES THRU SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES. OTHERWISE...A DRY PATTERN SHOULD EXIST. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE COOL THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS
WITH MID 50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA
AND ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THU. E TO NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BELOW 050AGL.
N/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS ABOVE 100AGL VEERING TO N/NE OVERNIGHT AND
THU...DECREASING A BIT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AOB 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 4-5 FT IN MIXED
SWELLS AND WIND WAVES ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN...2 TO 3 FEET
NEAR THE EAST/SOUTH/WEST COASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 75 83 / 10 10 10 20
STT 76 85 76 85 / 20 10 10 20

[Gustywind]

Here are some images of the flooding today in PR.

Massive pics Cycloneye!!! For December that's very impressive floods