Texas Winter 2014-2015

[CaptinCrunch]

Enjoy today as it will be the last 60+ temp day we see for a while. Tomorrows high is forecasted to be in the low 50's, and with rain for the latter half of the week temps will remain in the lower 50's to upper 40's for high's. Next week and the week after temps look to be even colder than this week with high's in the upper to mid 40's and lows in the lower 30's and upper 20's to the north, All this and precip chances too. We may not see a white Christmas, but we might see a White New Years day.

[TheProfessor]

I don't think I've ever seen a white New Years, it would be pretty cool to see one.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF at 240 hours (Christmas Day), the flood gates have opened!

On this run, the arctic blast looks to stay east of Texas but that is way out and will likely change.

[Portastorm]

Can you please post a graphic of the 12z GFS showing the winter weather? Curious if it makes it over to SELA. I will actually be in Beaumont on the 30th and travelling to Alexandria then Baton Rouge. I know it is way far off but if it comes to pass then holiday plans will need to be reworked and at least I can start thinking of the options in advance.

Yeah, you should know that these models at this range are, at best, a crap shoot. It does appear that a major pattern change will occur but the details cannot be trusted at this point. Nevertheless, here is one image:

[CaptinCrunch]

:uarrow: I don't think I've ever seen a white New Years, it would be pretty cool to see one.

I've seen a couple, most was icy, but still white....lol

[aggiecutter]

Looks like the Texarkana area would receive a little over 3" from that storm. However, it appears that measurable snow would be just to the east of the Austin area.

[BigB0882]

Thanks for the images. I would definitely not be traveling on that day. A long way off and certain to undergo changes but hopefully we get some snow at some point, if not from that storm.

[dhweather]

The 12Z GFS , at 7400 hours, has a cat 5 in the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

The 12Z GFS , at 7400 hours, has a cat 5 in the Gulf.

Hopefully,the upgrade in January will clean the model and compete with the ECMWF.

[wxman57]

All this talk of the "coming" cold and snow. Meanwhile, it's 78 degrees and sunny in Houston. Perfect December weather! I managed to drain all of the cold air out of the Arctic with that mid November outbreak (that made me win the first freeze contest). Our winter ended after that event!

On a more serious note, the 12Z GFS can't even seem to get this weekend's storm track right. Once again, it shunts the storm out to the east and out to sea, with no East Coast storm. Almost certainly it's wrong. And if it can't get a 5-7 day forecast right (or even close), I would not trust it at 360 hrs.

[orangeblood]

All this talk of the "coming" cold and snow. Meanwhile, it's 78 degrees and sunny in Houston. Perfect December weather! I managed to drain all of the cold air out of the Arctic with that mid November outbreak (that made me win the first freeze contest). Our winter ended after that event!

On a more serious note, the 12Z GFS can't even seem to get this weekend's storm track right. Once again, it shunts the storm out to the east and out to sea, with no East Coast storm. Almost certainly it's wrong. And if it can't get a 5-7 day forecast right (or even close), I would not trust it at 360 hrs.

Pretty remarkable how different the GFS and Euro are for next week's system. Speaking of Euro, it's control run has some of the coldest air I've seen in awhile building across the northern plains into Canada after Christmas....some 40-50 F degrees below normal stretching from Northern Alberta into Colorado, massive blocking across the the Eastern Pacific and over the pole/incredible height falls across the central Rockies into the plains! Fascinating especially considering it fits the top analogs so closely!

[srainhoutx]

All this talk of the "coming" cold and snow. Meanwhile, it's 78 degrees and sunny in Houston. Perfect December weather! I managed to drain all of the cold air out of the Arctic with that mid November outbreak (that made me win the first freeze contest). Our winter ended after that event!

On a more serious note, the 12Z GFS can't even seem to get this weekend's storm track right. Once again, it shunts the storm out to the east and out to sea, with no East Coast storm. Almost certainly it's wrong. And if it can't get a 5-7 day forecast right (or even close), I would not trust it at 360 hrs.

Pretty remarkable how different the GFS and Euro are for next week's system. Speaking of Euro, it's control run has some of the coldest air I've seen in awhile building across the northern plains into Canada after Christmas....some 40-50 F degrees below normal stretching from Northern Alberta into Colorado, massive blocking across the the Eastern Pacific and over the pole/incredible height falls across the central Rockies into the plains! Fascinating especially considering it fits the top analogs so closely!

Speaking on analogs, here is the Updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs centered on December 26th.

[Tireman4]

All this talk of the "coming" cold and snow. Meanwhile, it's 78 degrees and sunny in Houston. Perfect December weather! I managed to drain all of the cold air out of the Arctic with that mid November outbreak (that made me win the first freeze contest). Our winter ended after that event!

On a more serious note, the 12Z GFS can't even seem to get this weekend's storm track right. Once again, it shunts the storm out to the east and out to sea, with no East Coast storm. Almost certainly it's wrong. And if it can't get a 5-7 day forecast right (or even close), I would not trust it at 360 hrs.

Oh sir. Oh sir. Winter has not even begun.

[WeatherNewbie]

The 12Z GFS , at 7400 hours, has a cat 5 in the Gulf.

How'd you do with the rain last night? The heaviest portion seemed to be centered around your area.

[gboudx]

The 12Z GFS , at 7400 hours, has a cat 5 in the Gulf.

How'd you do with the rain last night? The heaviest portion seemed to be centered around your area.

I'm in the same area so I'll chime in. Before the overnight rain, we had about 0.5". This morning it was almost 1.4".

[CaptinCrunch]

The 12Z GFS , at 7400 hours, has a cat 5 in the Gulf.

How'd you do with the rain last night? The heaviest portion seemed to be centered around your area.

I'm in the same area so I'll chime in. Before the overnight rain, we had about 0.5". This morning it was almost 1.4".

I'm glad you got some rain gdoudx, all I got was some patchy drizzle in the morning and cloudy skies with a cool NW breeze the rest of the day.

[Big O]

All this talk of the "coming" cold and snow. Meanwhile, it's 78 degrees and sunny in Houston. Perfect December weather! I managed to drain all of the cold air out of the Arctic with that mid November outbreak (that made me win the first freeze contest). Our winter ended after that event!

On a more serious note, the 12Z GFS can't even seem to get this weekend's storm track right. Once again, it shunts the storm out to the east and out to sea, with no East Coast storm. Almost certainly it's wrong. And if it can't get a 5-7 day forecast right (or even close), I would not trust it at 360 hrs.

Pretty remarkable how different the GFS and Euro are for next week's system. Speaking of Euro, it's control run has some of the coldest air I've seen in awhile building across the northern plains into Canada after Christmas....some 40-50 F degrees below normal stretching from Northern Alberta into Colorado, massive blocking across the the Eastern Pacific and over the pole/incredible height falls across the central Rockies into the plains! Fascinating especially considering it fits the top analogs so closely!

Good pick up. I took a look at both the Euro ensemble mean and control for Days 11-15, and to say the least, they are impressive. Cross-polar flow is quite apparent, and there are signs of an undercutting STJ. This setup reminds me a lot of December 1983. I'm not saying 1983 is a matching analog based on ENSO or the various teleconnections, I'm merely impressed with the similarities to December 1983 (i.e., impressive ridge just on the west coast up through Alaska and western Canada with an undercutting jet).

There also appears to be a ridge over SE Canada (perhaps west-based -NAO) that seems to be retrograding and attempting to link with the western ridge. I'm not exactly sure what this would mean if it, in fact, happened, but perhaps it will lock all the frigid air over the CONUS for an extended period of time. Thoughts?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It appears the 15Z SREF is showing snow for northwestern Texas Friday morning. Anyone else see this?

[northjaxpro]

All this talk of the "coming" cold and snow. Meanwhile, it's 78 degrees and sunny in Houston. Perfect December weather! I managed to drain all of the cold air out of the Arctic with that mid November outbreak (that made me win the first freeze contest). Our winter ended after that event!

On a more serious note, the 12Z GFS can't even seem to get this weekend's storm track right. Once again, it shunts the storm out to the east and out to sea, with no East Coast storm. Almost certainly it's wrong. And if it can't get a 5-7 day forecast right (or even close), I would not trust it at 360 hrs.

Pretty remarkable how different the GFS and Euro are for next week's system. Speaking of Euro, it's control run has some of the coldest air I've seen in awhile building across the northern plains into Canada after Christmas....some 40-50 F degrees below normal stretching from Northern Alberta into Colorado, massive blocking across the the Eastern Pacific and over the pole/incredible height falls across the central Rockies into the plains! Fascinating especially considering it fits the top analogs so closely!

Good pick up. I took a look at both the Euro ensemble mean and control for Days 11-15, and to say the least, they are impressive. Cross-polar flow is quite apparent, and there are signs of an undercutting STJ. This setup reminds me a lot of December 1983. I'm not saying 1983 is a matching analog based on ENSO or the various teleconnections, I'm merely impressed with the similarities to December 1983 (i.e., impressive ridge just on the west coast up through Alaska and western Canada with an undercutting jet).

There also appears to be a ridge over SE Canada (perhaps west-based -NAO) that seems to be retrograding and attempting to link with the western ridge. I'm not exactly sure what this would mean if it, in fact, happened, but perhaps it will lock all the frigid air over the CONUS for an extended period of time. Thoughts?

Well, if a -NAO develops and a blocking ridge sets up shop across the NW Atlantic, or SE Canada region, you could have the recipe for extreme cold air to get locked in place over the CONUS for an extended time. Something to watch in the next couple of weeks.

[SouthernMet]

It appears the 15Z SREF is showing snow for northwestern Texas Friday morning. Anyone else see this?

18z gfs parallel just trended much colder for friday afternoon/night & saturday, but any frozen precip still stays in the panhandles of tx/ok.

Last frame of the sref looks interesting, bares watching imo.

Remember, even if the wintry aspect doesn't play out, the setup still does look favorable for possible severe weather.