Texas Winter 2014-2015

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It appears the 15Z SREF is showing snow for northwestern Texas Friday morning. Anyone else see this?

18z gfs parallel just trended much colder for friday afternoon/night & saturday, but any frozen precip still stays in the panhandles of tx/ok.

Last frame of the sref looks interesting, bares watching imo.

Remember, even if the wintry aspect doesn't play out, the setup still does look favorable for possible severe weather.

Yeah, I saw that on the 18Z GFS-P. Interesting!

[Ptarmigan]

Some of the analogs stand out like 1970 and 1989.

[weatherdude1108]

Latest from Bob Rose

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[wxman57]

00Z Euro has temps 12-18F above normal across Texas on Christmas Day & temps about 25-30F above normal across Canada north of the Great Lakes on Christmas morning. Neither the GFS nor the Euro has any snow in Texas for the next 10 days. Friday's storm system may produce some significant rain, though.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:


More seasonal weather has returned to the region following a cold frontal passage late yesterday.

Fast progressive flow aloft will result in rapid weather changes over the next 24-36 hours. Surface high pressure will move eastward today allowing winds to turn from N to NE and ENE by this evening. The next storm system along the west coast currently will move inland into the SW US tomorrow and across TX on Friday. Surface cool front is stalling over the NW Gulf waters this morning and will begin to move northward as a warm front on Wednesday. 850mb flow becomes southerly late tonight and this will advect a cloud deck inland from the SW across the region as mid level moisture overruns the surface cold dome.

Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and cool with developing light rain and showers from SW to NE. Surface warm front will begin to move northward on Wednesday with fog and low clouds developing north of the boundary. Warm air advection pattern above the surface cold dome will be maximized just west of SE TX Wednesday afternoon and this is where the best rain chances will likely be found (Matagorda Bay to near College Station).

On Thursday the incoming storm system drops into northern MX with surface low pressure developing across SW TX. Warm front will attempt to move inland, but I have my doubts on just how far it may make it. North of the boundary fog and light rain with cool temperatures will be the norm while south of the boundary temperatures will warm into the 70’s and partly to mostly cloudy skies and a passing shower. Best thought at the moment is that the boundary may at least make it to the coast, but maybe not as far inland as US 59 on Thursday.

Main weather event penciled in for Friday as both surface and upper level storm cross TX. Warm front may surge inland late Thursday into early Friday morning resulting in a narrow band of higher low level instability near the coast early Friday. Strong and widespread lift will approach the region from the SW Friday morning into the early afternoon hours. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region Friday morning into the afternoon. Current thinking is that instability is too low to mention any severe threat, but will need to keep a close eye at the coastal locations which may be warm sectored Friday morning. PWS increase to near 1.5 inches which is fairly high for mid December and would support a heavy rainfall threat, but cell motions look fairly fast and the overall system speed is progressive.

This storm system should exit to the east late Friday with possibly a clear and cool Saturday in place. Some indications that moisture may be trapped in the frontal passage inversion on Saturday keeping skies cloudy for the first part of the day. NW winds will bring in a much colder air mass by Saturday with lows in the 30’s and 40’s and highs in the 50’s. Next storm system rapidly approaches by Sunday and Monday with clouds increasing again by late Sunday and a slight chance of rain by Monday.  

 

[wxman57]

I made a couple of meteograms for Houston off of last night's GFS runs, though I wouldn't trust the GFS past 5-7 days. Euro indicates well above normal across TX on Christmas Day, while the GFS is close to normal. Chance of a light freeze after Christmas according to the GFS. Nothing as cold as mid November through the end of the year:

[weatherdude1108]

When I was reading the EWX discussion this morning, I noticed the more technical reads that are historically not common with this office ("... ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING). I immediately though "HAMPSHIRE?" Sure enough, HAMPSHIRE.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
536 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AS
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM.
WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE MAIN SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARCELS LIFTED FROM 700
MB HAVE ABOUT 150-200 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH. MOST OF THIS CAPE
IS IN THE ICE PRODUCTION LAYER BETWEEN -10C AND -20C WHICH WOULD
HELP WITH THE LIGHTNING POTENTIAL AS ICE GROWTH LEADS TO CHARGING.
RAIN TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
INCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR MOST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND 50S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT
3-5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES IN THE 00-06Z
TIME FRAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FURTHER REDUCTION AFTER 06Z AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN KEEP A BLANKET ON THE SURFACE.

SHOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN THE
FIRST IMPULSE AND THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
SW FLOW ALOFT AND AT 700 MB WILL SUPPORT WEAK LIFT ON ISENTROPIC
SURFACES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY.
LAST NIGHT...THERE WAS SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER WITH MOST SOLUTIONS TAKING A NORTHERLY TRACK.
TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE
LOW AND BEST LIFT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WAS NOT THE
CONSENSUS. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR OUR CWAS
SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF THE CWA ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WARM MOIST AIR WOULD THEN BE LIFTED ON TOP OF THE OF
THE COLD AIRMASS AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP FORCING ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH AN INCH OR MORE JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME DEVIATIONS ON THE
FORECASTED TRACK OF BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW THAT COULD LEAD
TO FLUCTUATIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL. AS
OF THIS MORNING THE EXPECTED AXIS OF THE HEAVIER RAIN EXTENDS FROM
SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN TO GEORGETOWN INTO THE WACO AREA BUT THIS
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN...UPPED POPS TO 60/70 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE 70 POPS FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF EXPECTED
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES... THESE MAY NEED TO
BE FURTHER INCREASED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 30S/40S. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE HILL COUNTRY COULD FLIRT WITH
THE FREEZING MARK SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECASTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...BUT HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN ARE NOT
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

HAMPSHIRE

[Portastorm]

Saw a tweet this morning from a buddy of mine, a pro met in the Austin area, showing both the GFS and Euro (0z, I believe) and projected rainfall of 1-2 inches in the general Austin metro area later this week. Hope it verifies!

[gatorcane]

Wxman57 those are some very warm anomalies over the next 10 days and it seems you have quieted the thread for the time being (the Heat Miser rises! ). What are you thoughts on December being yet another record-breaking warm month for the United States (October broke records I believe too)?

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 those are some very warm anomalies over the next 10 days and it seems you have quieted the thread for the time being (the Heat Miser rises! ). What are you thoughts on December being yet another record-breaking warm month for the United States (October broke records I believe too)?

Let him have his fun . The pattern change is already occurring as the Pacific/east Asia jet is slowing down. Much like last winter it will get him, perhaps we should do another bet with our beloved resident miser. Tireman4 gets a good kick from bipolar wxman57!

We are actually going to quiet down the El Nino climo pattern for a while (hopefully STJ will remain active) into a more La Nina-esque pattern with deep cold from NW Canada bleeding into the plains after Christmas. This is why weak Nino's can feature more cold blasts than the stronger events.

[Ralph's Weather]

This will be an interesting period of watching how the pattern change evolves on the models, not seeing anything interesting right now on them though besides that they are wanting to keep the US warm through at least Christmas.

[aggiecutter]

00Z Euro has temps 12-18F above normal across Texas on Christmas Day & temps about 25-30F above normal across Canada north of the Great Lakes on Christmas morning. Neither the GFS nor the Euro has any snow in Texas for the next 10 days. Friday's storm system may produce some significant rain, though.

All the long range models are now sticking the trough in the east the end of 14 and beginning of 15. That means only glancing blows of cold air for Texas for the foreseeable future. It also means those 76-77 and 77-78 analogs are going-going gone.

[Portastorm]

00Z Euro has temps 12-18F above normal across Texas on Christmas Day & temps about 25-30F above normal across Canada north of the Great Lakes on Christmas morning. Neither the GFS nor the Euro has any snow in Texas for the next 10 days. Friday's storm system may produce some significant rain, though.

All the long range models are now sticking the trough in the east the end of 14 and beginning of 15. That means only glancing blows of cold air for Texas for the foreseeable future. It also means those 76-77 and 77-78 analogs are going-going gone.

Way, waaaaaay too early to be making judgment calls like this IMO. I just read a post on another forum about a number of European ensemble members showing much of the CONUS in the deep freeze by New Years. But if you and wxman57 want to buy into the 10-day Euro, be my guest.

[Ntxw]

In fact you can argue the Euro ensembles are even further west with the trough with a SE ridge. Sound familiar? -PNA. But we're speculating very far out.

[Tireman4]

Wxman57 those are some very warm anomalies over the next 10 days and it seems you have quieted the thread for the time being (the Heat Miser rises! ). What are you thoughts on December being yet another record-breaking warm month for the United States (October broke records I believe too)?

Let him have his fun . The pattern change is already occurring as the Pacific/east Asia jet is slowing down. Much like last winter it will get him, perhaps we should do another bet with our beloved resident miser. Tireman4 gets a good kick from bipolar wxman57!

Boy, he was a hoot. Just a hoot. The boys in the office want him back. They sent a petition to see if they can find bi-polar Wxman 57. My gracious..it was fun..to give conflicting forecasts in one day..

[orangeblood]

00Z Euro has temps 12-18F above normal across Texas on Christmas Day & temps about 25-30F above normal across Canada north of the Great Lakes on Christmas morning. Neither the GFS nor the Euro has any snow in Texas for the next 10 days. Friday's storm system may produce some significant rain, though.

All the long range models are now sticking the trough in the east the end of 14 and beginning of 15. That means only glancing blows of cold air for Texas for the foreseeable future. It also means those 76-77 and 77-78 analogs are going-going gone.

All the long range models ? Unless I'm missing something, the models are showing big discrepancies.....If factoring in biases, looking at the Euro ENS which mean trough position is centered across central Rockies (just before New Years) and the GFS ENS now centered across the midwest. It's reasonable to conclude, at this time, seeing the trough axis across the central plains, is it not ?

[Ntxw]

Don't lose sight of the Christmas +- (eve) storm. It's bringing some thickness >528 that is very very cold aloft. Deep system down to the gulf coast.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is cold,cold,cold for the eastern 2/3 of the United States and Plains end-of-month. It has been quite persistent on this and has not been pushing out the timeframe as the arctic air starts to invade the U.S. right around Christmas. The core of the arctic air just misses Texas to the east but we are along way out and will likely change. Still, looks cold for Texas as those are 12Z temps folks with 30s at 12Z down into northern areas of Southern Florida!

[srainhoutx]

Yet the 12Z Euro has all the cold in the West on Christmas Day with some -15 to near -20 anomalies dropping S from Canada into the Great Basin/Inter Mountain West.

[Texas Snowman]

Ntxw, I've seen it snow here in Denison a few days before Christmas (December 1983 and December 1989 come to mind). I've also seen it snow on Christmas Eve (remember Mississippi State Guy and the Oklahoma/Red River Valley blizzard of 2009?). And I've seen it snow once on Christmas Day now, thanks to the White Christmas storm a couple of years ago. I've also seen it snow once on the day after Christmas.

There was also that terrible Red River Valley ice storm that started on Christmas Day 2000, leaving many thousands without power for several days. And last, but not least, I've also seen it snow on New Year's Eve here (twice including the year that Texas A&M played in the Independence Bowl with heavy snow falling) and also on New Year's Day.

So as a lover of all things snow, cold and the Christmas holidays, I can assure you that I'm not losing sight of that storm!

No matter how much Wxman 57 is wanting me to!