Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Tireman4]

Don't lose sight of the Christmas +- (eve) storm. It's bringing some thickness >528 that is very very cold aloft. Deep system down to the gulf coast.

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Ummmm tell me more sir. No way for us in Houston (right?). LOL

[wxman57]

Don't lose sight of the Christmas +- (eve) storm. It's bringing some thickness >528 that is very very cold aloft. Deep system down to the gulf coast.

I'm not sure what storm you're referring to. Both the GFS & EC have TX in southerly winds the 24th/25th with highs in the 60s and thickness lines 552-564. EC has lows in the upper 40s with highs near 70 in Dallas for Christmas Day and lows near 60 on the 26th. Both models indicate a cool-down following the 26th, but no storm system along the Gulf Coast.

Here are a couple of meteograms for Houston (12Z GFS):

[dhweather]

The 12Z GFS , at 7400 hours, has a cat 5 in the Gulf.

How'd you do with the rain last night? The heaviest portion seemed to be centered around your area.

0.98 I believe, I'll have to go back and look.

[wxman57]

GFS has a fairly benign flow pattern for the Gulf Coast for Christmas. No white Christmas for Texas.



Snow for the northern Rockies, Northern Plains and New England indicated for Christmas Day:

[wxman57]

From the NWS office in San Antonio:

"While it may not snow Christmas Day this year, here are some snowfall statistics to think about:"

[Tireman4]

From the NWS office in San Antonio:

"While it may not snow Christmas Day this year, here are some snowfall statistics to think about:"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B5AN-B7CYAAA1uR.png

Ahem...excuse me sir. Just a quick question if you will indulge me. Ahem...welcome back from Disneyworld...Did you not say that models outside of 5 days are not reliable? Just asking.

[Ntxw]

Don't lose sight of the Christmas +- (eve) storm. It's bringing some thickness >528 that is very very cold aloft. Deep system down to the gulf coast.

I'm not sure what storm you're referring to. Both the GFS & EC have TX in southerly winds the 24th/25th with highs in the 60s and thickness lines 552-564. EC has lows in the upper 40s with highs near 70 in Dallas for Christmas Day and lows near 60 on the 26th. Both models indicate a cool-down following the 26th, but no storm system along the Gulf Coast.

This doesn't look like a tranquil run to Christmas eve to me. Ridging does pop back on Christmas for the next storm and cold front I'll give you that. I should verify, I was looking at the PGFS for thicknesses. The GFS is lesser. I would not be advising travelers to expect no storm.

[Ntxw]

And then look the analogs showing up beyond Christmas. It's like as if Portastorm wrote it himself!

[Texas Snowman]

I've noticed that about Wxman 57 - he doesn't trust the models several days out when they are advertising cold and snow.

But he sure does when they are advertising bike riding weather!

Come on Ntxw and Porta - you've got to figure a way to break Heat Miser's hold on our Christmas weather!

[srainhoutx]

The Day 11+ Analogs are even back to those 1976 - 1989 dates that we saw during the November cold spell...

[TheProfessor]

yes I've been keeping an eye on Christmas eve, there may not be snow in Texas as of right now, but it looks like there might be some in Kansas where I will be, but we all know that can change real fast.

[Tireman4]

I've noticed that about Wxman 57 - he doesn't trust the models several days out when they are advertising cold and snow.

But he sure does when they are advertising bike riding weather!

Come on Ntxw and Porta - you've got to figure a way to break Heat Miser's hold on our Christmas weather!

Oh heck...you should see him during Summer. When it advertises 100's 25 days away, he is "that forecast nailed it".....LOL

[wxman57]

Ahem...excuse me sir. Just a quick question if you will indulge me. Ahem...welcome back from Disneyworld...Did you not say that models outside of 5 days are not reliable? Just asking.

Correct, but only if they're forecasting extreme cold beyond 5 days. If they're forecasting above normal temps then I believe them. Don't anger me or I'll really turn the thermostat up!

[Rgv20]

Christmas 2004! Can't believe its been 10 years...I will never forget the site of my Palm Trees cover in Snow.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/?n=2004event_christmasreport

The Rio Grande Valley of Deep South Texas experienced one of its most memorable Christmas Holidays ever. A rare combination of weather events developed in late December that produced several inches of snowfall, which in itself is quite rare in this region. However, to have snow fall on Christmas Eve and morning is a historical first according to the more than 150 years of weather data. This White Christmas is certainly one for the record books.

Meteorology, 12/22-24
The freezing temperatures and snowfall were expected in South Texas and National Weather Service Offices were talking about the arrival of unseasonably cold temperatures prior to the holiday. Snowfall was mentioned as a possibility and as Christmas drew closer, snowfall became more likely as the weather forecast became more focused.

We need to look back to the week before Christmas in order to recap the details of this historic event. Signals from the numerical weather forecast models suggested a strong cold front and arctic air mass would move southward along the Rocky Mountains into Texas and eventually over the Lower Texas Coast. This cold front moved through Brownsville, Wednesday afternoon (12/22/2004). A second reinforcing surge of arctic air followed the initial front, dropping temperatures into the 30s and low 40s late Thursday (12/23/2004). Maximum temperatures on Friday (12/24/2004) were in the upper 30s to low 40s across the Rio Grande Valley. Widespread moderate rain covered much of the area with most locations reporting one half of an inch to nearly one inch of liquid precipitation (Figure 1, below). The cold rain began to taper off on Christmas Eve as temperatures began to fall below freezing.
Doppler radar animation snippet, early morning Christmas Eve, 2004, Brownsville (click to animate)
Figure 1. Base reflectivity, NWS Brownsville Doppler Radar, 6 AM to 703 AM December 24, 2004 (click for animation)

Meteorology, 12/25
With the cold air trapped at the surface and wedged against the foothills of the Sierra Madre Oriental, an upper level low with Pacific moisture was moving east across Northern Mexico. The moisture and upward vertical motion generated by this upper level system caused snow to begin falling across Deep South Texas after 10 PM CST. The snow fall persisted through midnight (Figure 2) into Christmas morning and eventually ended around 4 AM on (12/25/2004) leaving behind the first White Christmas ever recording in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and most likely the first White Christmas ever in extreme Northeast Mexico. Click here for a detailed meteorological study of this event.

Products and Services
The National Weather Service Office in Brownsville began talking about the potential for freezing temperatures and a winter mix of precipitation as early as Monday December 20, nearly 5 days in advance of the storm. Forecast Discussions, Hazardous Weather Outlooks, and Special Weather Statements were consistently mentioning the potential for a winter blast in Deep South Texas by Christmas Eve.

As the event began to unfold, the meteorologists at NWS Brownsville refined the precipitation forecast to account for rainfall changing to sleet or a rain/snow mix, and eventually changing to all snow for the overnight hours between December 24th and 25th. The first in a series of winter weather warnings and advisories - Freeze Warnings - were issued by the National Weather Service at 230 AM December 23rd. Around noon on Christmas Eve, the Freeze Warnings were upgraded to Winter Weather Advisories, which were subsequently upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings later that evening for Heavy Snow, continuing until the morning of December 25th when the snowfall finally ended.

All in all, the snowfall was greeted with joy and excitement since it has been almost 110 years since the last measurable snow fell in the city of Brownsville - and for that matter, much of the Valley! Numerous spotters and weather watchers, and just plain curious folks stayed alert until the early morning hours taking photographs and video footage of this “once in a lifetime” event. Click here for photos taken by office staff.

[wxman57]

Here's the satellite shot of the 2004 snowfall to go with that article, Rgv:

[weatherdude1108]

From the NWS office in San Antonio:

"While it may not snow Christmas Day this year, here are some snowfall statistics to think about:"
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B5AN-B7CYAAA1uR.png

I lived in San Antonio during the 1985 storm. What a site that was! Shut the entire city down. We got out of school! Fun times as a middle schooler! I found a youtube video of old news footage of it. This snowstorm is the reason I developed a passion for the weather.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/ ... 937008.php

http://articles.latimes.com/1985-01-14/ ... an-antonio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-hpfj03--s

[Tireman4]

Ahem...excuse me sir. Just a quick question if you will indulge me. Ahem...welcome back from Disneyworld...Did you not say that models outside of 5 days are not reliable? Just asking.

Correct, but only if they're forecasting extreme cold beyond 5 days. If they're forecasting above normal temps then I believe them. Don't anger me or I'll really turn the thermostat up!

I do have a snow machine sir...

[Texas Snowman]

I'm counting on you using that snow machine next week.

While I sit here and listen to Bing Crosby croon about dreaming of another white Christmas with every Christmas card he writes.

Which reminds me, I need to send a special card to someone - with a snowball in it.

Anyone have the address for Wxman 57?!?

Seriously, Merry Christmas Heat Miser. May you get plenty of 80 and 90 degree days...next summer!

[Ntxw]

Seriously, Merry Christmas Heat Miser. May you get plenty of 80 and 90 degree days...next summer!

I see what you did there! Only 80 and 90s?! In the summer? For the past 4 years DFW's 100+ days have decreased each summer, 2014 managed 15 days. Perhaps 2015 will cap it off to under 10! Always dreaming of 1903-1906. Anyway back to winter!

[WeatherGuesser]

Christmas 2004! Can't believe its been 10 years...

We may have had less fun ....http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=116504&p=2430492#p2430492