Florida Weather

[StormingB81]

At least let it be cold for the holidays...lol

[NDG]

Cold wx lovers are not going to like the latest Euro run forecast through Christmas.

Officially in Orlando this morning made the 7th day in a row with low temps in the 40s but no comparison to December 2010 by no means when we had 29 days in a row with low temps in the 40s or lower, with 7 days with low temps of 32 degrees or lower.
Because we had a very warm start to December the average for this month in Orlando is only about a degree below average and with possible near average temps staying put through the end of the month we may end up just slightly below average for the month.
Lets hope the NAO positive regime stays put if the positive PNA is going to rule for the rest of the meteorological winter it will at least help in keeping Orlando not many if any at all freezing temps.

[Sanibel]

The in between period for fronts right now is not warming up to above average temperatures like has been the trend for the previous fronts. We are in a cool, dry constant (zonal?) pattern with highs only topping out in the low 70's.

[NDG]

Should be in the low 80s in most of S FL this weekend for the next "in between fronts" period as you call it

[gatorcane]

GFS is persistent on bringing very cold weather to the Eastern 2/3 of the United States and plains after Christmas. In fact, the artic air surges into Florida starting Dec 28th and these are 12Z temps folks for the last day of the month with 30s down into northern areas of Southern Florida at 12Z!

[StormingB81]

Are those lows or daytime?

[NDG]

Are those lows or daytime?

Surface temps at 12z (7 AM) for Tuesday December 30th.

[StormingB81]

So probably highs if it verifies in the 50s..lol..I hope it gets cold the next two weeks but it seems most times it is cold right before Christmas and very warm for Christmas

[northjaxpro]

Stormie, as NDG described, temps will be about average up to Christmas. As we have discussed the past several days, the real cold could return just after Christmas leading into Near Year's Day. The models are honing in on this, and by this weekend we should have some better idea on the timing and magnitude of the cold potential across the Deep South and Florida peninsula leading into New Year's Day.

[TheStormExpert]

One thing today that caught my eyes about the potential for cool/cold weather just after Christmas in time for New Year's is that this afternoon's CPC's updated temperature outlooks are started to really hint at the potential for cooler weather in both their 6-10 day outlook (Dec. 22-26) and really going bullish in their 8-14 day outlook (Dec. 24-30).

CPC 6-10 Day Temp. Outlook (Dec. 22-26)


CPC 8-14 Day Temp. Outlook (Dec. 24-30)


At this time it also looks like their is a strong cold front that moves through Christmas Eve that drops temps. Christmas Day into the low 70's/upper 60's for highs and mid-low 50's for lows. The Euro has been persistent on this for the past several runs since showing up in the 240hr. timeframe, and on it's 12z run today has gone slightly more bullish on how strong the trough is.

[gatorcane]

Nice graphics above thanks StormExpert. Latest 18Z GFS continues to advertise the Arctic blast sweeping Eastern 2/3 of the country. Still starts to be ushered into the lower 48 right around Christmas so is NOT pushing the timeframe back making it more believable. On the latest run, the core of the artic air misses peninsula Florida to the north. Details of this artic blast need to be worked out.

[northjaxpro]

Warmer than normal temps across Alaska and along the U.S. West coast surely is suggesting abnormal 500 mb height rises and is signaling a very prominent +PNA on NOAA's 8-14 day temp outlook. Arctic air bottled up over Siberia will begin to head south and dive down into the CONUS within the next 10 days. The big questions will be to what magnitude and impact for the Eastern CONUS. Much will depend on how the upper trough will set up and the amplification and orientation of it as well when the pattern change occurs. If the NAO can even become slightly negative in the next couple of weeks, the arctic air mass could significantly impact the Deep South and possibly the Florida peninsula by the time we approach 2015.

[asd123]

:uarrow:

Warmer than normal temps across Alaska and the U.S. Pacific West coast surely is signaling a very prominent +PNA on NOAA's 8-14 day temp outlook. Arctic air bottled up over Siberia will begin to head south and dive down into the CONUS within the next 10 days. The big questions will be to what magnitude and impact for the Eastern CONUS. If the NAO can even become slightly negative in the next couple of weeks, it will impact the Deep South and possibly the Florida peninsula in a very significant nature by the time we enter 2015.

The PNA general consensus seems to be slightly negative by most of the models. On Weatherbell, consensus is moving toward a decently negative AO and NAO, slightly negative PNA, and a tanking EPO.

In about 10 days and beyond, the models show possible decent cold weather making a comeback. Don't know if it will be

(Image Courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)



But I guess we'll have to wait and see

If you don't have a Weatherbell subscription, I highly recommend it. I am only using it for the winter months though.


Edited Post: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... ng-to.html
Andrew from The Weather Centre reinforces what I said. According to him, the east could be up for some cold and snow due to favorable teleconnections and a subtropical jet.

[northjaxpro]

I am not onboard yet with the PNA going negative. It has been solidly positive for most of the Fall season and I think it will remain that way for at least the next two weeks or so. But, I agree with you asd123 regarding the AO being negative and potentially the NAO at least going slightly negative within the next 10-14 days.

BTW, I know of Weatherbell and it is terrific. Great graphics and I agree would highly recommend it to anyone. Because of copyright issues, you have to use extreme caution with regards to posting any images from them on here and other weather forums.

Also, quite a 360 hr GFS run for those who fantasize about wintry precip you just posted. Interesting, but still La La Land that far out. Actually, I noticed that run was initialzed back on Saturday 12/13.

[asd123]

I am not onboard yet with the PNA going negative. It has been solidly positive for most of the Fall season and I think it will remain that way for at least the next two weeks or so. But, I agree with you asd123 regarding the AO being negative and potentially the NAO at least going slightly negative within the next 10-14 days.

BTW, I know of Weatherbell and it is terrific. Great graphics and I agree would highly recommend it to anyone. Because of copywright issues, you have to use extreme caution with regards to posting any images from them on here and other weather forums.

Also, quite a 360 hr GFS run for those who fantasize about wintry precip you just posted. Interesting, but still La La Land that far out.

Do you have a subscription? If so, take a look at the teleconnections. You probably made your post before my edit, so here: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/20 ... ng-to.html

Andrew from The Weather Centre reinforces what I said. According to him, the east could be up for some cold and snow due to favorable teleconnections and a subtropical jet.

[northjaxpro]

Well, it is possible that the subtropical jet stream could indeed become active over the next two weeks. It could undercut an arctic airmass building down and that is definitely something to watch, especially December 26-31. The teleconnections may come aligned with a +PNA /-EPO, -AO/-NAO set-up all at once, which should it develop really would favor a real true arctic outbreak for the Eastern CONUS and potential impacts for Florida as well. It has been quite awhile since we have had this set up in the meteorological winter with a -NAO specifically, so awaiting to see when our luck runs out and we see this set up taking place.

If the Greenland blocking ridge really gets established, then watch out. That would really be the perfect set-up of potentially locking in arctic air especially across the Eastern CONUS.

[NDG]

One thing today that caught my eyes about the potential for cool/cold weather just after Christmas in time for New Year's is that this afternoon's CPC's updated temperature outlooks are started to really hint at the potential for cooler weather in both their 6-10 day outlook (Dec. 22-26) and really going bullish in their 8-14 day outlook (Dec. 24-30).

CPC 6-10 Day Temp. Outlook (Dec. 22-26)
http://i61.tinypic.com/2popcu0.jpg

CPC 8-14 Day Temp. Outlook (Dec. 24-30)
http://i62.tinypic.com/10h4y7t.jpg

At this time it also looks like their is a strong cold front that moves through Christmas Eve that drops temps. Christmas Day into the low 70's/upper 60's for highs and mid-low 50's for lows. The Euro has been persistent on this for the past several runs since showing up in the 240hr. timeframe, and on it's 12z run today has gone slightly more bullish on how strong the trough is.

http://i57.tinypic.com/6pt286.jpg

I think the CPC's 6-10 day range (Dec. 22-26) could be a big bust if the Euro is correct, it has been advertising that the trough digging down in that time frame will be digging down across the central US/MS River valley, central and southern FL is only going to get brushed by the cold air for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Regarding the NAO going negative, just like the PNA has been persistently positive, I believe it when I see it.

[gatorcane]

00Z Euro shows the artic air in a big way by day 10 as it invades the US from the NW. Will this eventually make it down into Florida?

[gatorcane]

GEM is showing COLD for Florida now too, Dec 26th below:

[TheStormExpert]

GEM is showing COLD for Florida now too, Dec 26th below:

http://i57.tinypic.com/20b0e2f.png

Doesn't look truly arctic by any means since the freezing line never goes further south than North FL/FL Panhandle. But of course it is the Canadian model.