ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[asd123]

NTXW, I don't know if you saw my post, it was kind of buried. Yeah, warming might have had something to do with the coral die off.

]

I saw it and you're probably onto something. Wasn't TCHP much higher than usual over the NW Carib this year?

I mean I saw water temps off sw fla in the low 90s consistently during one part of the summer approaching 94 95 in some spots. The anomalies were about 3-4 degrees Celsius widespread (my estimation based on the map on page 1)
I didn't really track the TCHP, but I would figure yes from the lack of storms in that area.

[Ntxw]

There should be some cooling on tomorrow's update. Tao buoys mostly show cooling in the eastern regions, warming in the western basin.

[cycloneye]

SOI has been rising in the past few days and the Index has not been in positive since June 29. Ntxw,is there anything about this rise that open eyebrows or is the normal up and down thing?

20141102,20141201,-10.0
20141103,20141202,-9.4
20141104,20141203,-8.8
20141105,20141204,-8.2
20141106,20141205,-7.6
20141107,20141206,-5.8

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

I think the SOI positives is MJO related cycloneye. Its been mostly weak positives, the jumps are from losing the big -SOI's from November

This week's update will be down to 0.8C

[cycloneye]

The text of the CPC weekly update is not out yet but Nino 3.4 is down to +0.8C.

[cycloneye]

The text of the CPC weekly update is not out yet but Nino 3.4 is down to +0.8C.

Finnally here is the text!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Nairobi]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the current MJO will weaken as it moves east.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml

[cycloneye]

JMA declares officially El Nino

JMA is the first agency that does this and I guess BoM and CPC will follow soon.

Japan’s weather bureau said on Wednesday that an El Niño weather pattern, which can trigger drought in some parts of the world while causing flooding in others, had emerged during the summer for the first time in five years and was likely to continue into winter.

That marks the first declaration by a major meteorological bureau of the much-feared El Niño phenomenon, which had been widely expected to emerge this year.

El Niño - a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific - can prompt drought in south-east Asia and Australia and heavy rains in South America, hitting production of food such as rice, wheat and sugar.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast last month that the possibility of an El Niño pattern forming this winter was higher than the 50% it had projected in its previous monthly prediction.

But on Wednesday it said that an El Niño had emerged between June and August, continuing into November.

“We can’t tell whether or not El Niño will continue until spring, but we can say that there is a higher chance of it continuing in the winter,” said Ikuo Yoshikawa, a JMA forecaster.

The Japanese weather bureau does not classify or predict the size of El Niño, he said.

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that climate models suggest El Niño weather conditions would occur over the next three months, although related weather patterns are already being witnessed.

The US weather forecaster also projected last week a 65% chance of El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere winter and into spring, up from a 58% chance predicted early in November.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... her-bureau

[cycloneye]

CPC has made a blog about Climate Change and ENSO. I guess we learn something new every day.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... nso-take-2

[cycloneye]

The experts begin to talk about the 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season and they are saying ENSO will be a big factor. Read their forecasts at the Expert Forecasts thread at Talking Tropics forum.

[cycloneye]

Nino 3.4 expected to stay at +0.8C or go up to +0.9C at the CPC weekly update.The text of the update will come later today.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It will rise to +0.9C.

NINO 3.4
27.5 0.9

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC weekly update where they have Nino 3.4 up as was mentioned above to +0.9C.The ONI index from September thru November is at +0.5C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Here is Dr Jeff Masters take on the latest on ENSO.

No official El Niño, but unusual warmth in Eastern Pacific

Remarkably, the record-warm global sea surface temperatures over the past seven months have occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that historically has been present whenever record global ocean temperatures have occurred. November 2014 officially featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but sea surface temperatures rose to 0.5°C above average in mid-October in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. The warmth in the Niño 3.4 region has continued into mid-December, standing at 0.9°C above average this week. Most models predict El Niño will be in place this winter and NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, giving a 65% chance of an El Niño event this winter. If an El Niño does emerge, it is likely to be a weak event.

[cycloneye]

November PDO is up to +1.72

PDO continues to go even further in positive territory as from the +1.49 it was in October is now up in the November update to +1.72. Ntxw,I guess this is the nail in the coffin to declare officially El Nino right?

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[Ntxw]

November PDO is up to +1.72

PDO continues to go even further in positive territory as from the +1.49 it was in October is now up in the November update to +1.72. Ntxw,I guess this is the nail in the coffin to declare officially El Nino right?

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Just amazing, that is the 2nd highest November +PDO since 1950 behind only 1986. In fact it is the second highest that I can see going back to 1900. 2014 will finish the entire year all +PDO readings. 2015 at least in the foreseeable future looks to continue that feat.

[cycloneye]

That +1.72 is close to the 1997 +1.83 on May. Just comparing.

1.83 2.76 2.35 2.79 2.19

[Ntxw]

That +1.72 is close to the 1997 +1.83 on May. Just comparing.

1.83 2.76 2.35 2.79 2.19

It's very impressive! For November is even more impressive! 2nd strongest.

[euro6208]

WOW! Super El nino

[euro6208]

November PDO is up to +1.72

PDO continues to go even further in positive territory as from the +1.49 it was in October is now up in the November update to +1.72. Ntxw,I guess this is the nail in the coffin to declare officially El Nino right?

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

Just amazing, that is the 2nd highest November +PDO since 1950 behind only 1986. In fact it is the second highest that I can see going back to 1900. 2014 will finish the entire year all +PDO readings. 2015 at least in the foreseeable future looks to continue that feat.

That +1.72 is close to the 1997 +1.83 on May. Just comparing.

1.83 2.76 2.35 2.79 2.19

It's very impressive! For November is even more impressive! 2nd strongest.

Actually 4th if you count back to the early 20s. 1936 came in at a whopping 2.65, 1921 came in at 1.92, and 1986 came in at 1.77.

but yeah your right 2nd strongest since 1950...