What does the stall mean??

#1 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:26 pm

if anything?

#2 Postby **Deenac813** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:26 pm

Good question.. I was wondering that myself?? Anyone??

jaysonx · #3 Postby **jaysonx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:28 pm

Well, first off it means that the landfall will be pushed back a bit. I am not sure what it means as far as the projected path is concerned though.

ColdFront77 · #4 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:28 pm

I would think the longer it stalls... slowly moves... the more interesting a westward component will be for the east coast.

#5 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:37 pm

Actually the opposite CF....because the ridge shifts more northward with time and then more NNEward. I've said it before...and i'll say it again...you guys keep talking trof trof trof...and it is the trof...but it is also the ridge. What the ridge does is just as important if not more so because Izzy is being steered AROUND the ridge. If she is slowed down....she really doesn't beat the trof as much as comes in further up the coast.

Remember...the trof is only part of the equation. At this stage in the ball game...it is not going to weaken. There is more energy digging in and the ridge re-orientating itself it the controlling entity.

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:38 pm

OK Guys................It is still moving............Slow but moving NW.................Now way in heck the system headed for the EC doesnt pick her up...................In fact imo it may actually get her a bit farther north because of how strong it looks on water vapor loops and the speed its moving still towards the Coast which imo could put landfall more towards the VA Capes or Just North of Hattaras..............Sorry if i sound a little harsh but Isabel will NOT be making a turn for the west.....................

#7 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:40 pm

I do not want that, either! I was just going by what dr. lyons said and was wondering how the stall played into the equation. thanks!

ColdFront77 · #8 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:41 pm

I agree with most of what you are saying, Nelson.

I have been mentioning the trough and ridges numerous times here.

Whatever I say something, it at least appears that I am going against the generally forecast movement of Hurricane Isabel.

Like everyone else here, I have opinions and have no reason not to bring them up. I am keeping some issues with Hurricane Isabel to myself so I don't get lambasted like I used to on a weather message board.

#9 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:42 pm

Everything still looks on track. I don't think Isabel has stalled, but it IS moving right of the NHC prediction now. Remember the NHC had forecast it to be near 25.6N/70W at 4pm this afternoon (yes, that's a forecast position). But the center is up near 26N/70W at 7pm. But that doesn't reallly mean much either. All the models had been forecasting a significant slow-down today, and that's just what is happening.

Guest · #10 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:48 pm

Thanks for explaining that wxman57.............

I am sorry if i sounded harsh Tom...................Please trust our mets here on the site....................They have had a excelent handle on this as have i for that matter and a few other very good amatures on the site..................Keep up the great work guys...................

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:52 pm

I never ever said I didn't trust the meteorologists on this site. I would be a meteorologist this moment if I was comfortable enough to go to college. There is obviously no reason to get into that now.

I am, like you (Harry) and everyone else who is discussing Hurricane Isabel bringing up factors in the system, including the ultimate track of the storm.

My point above is... we can see that the storm is expected to move more westerly (again) on the approaching landfall. If the system slows down and/or stalls, how could it not still not move with a westerly component prior to landfall?

Sean in New Orleans · #12 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:58 pm

I'm not sure it means much--right now it appears the storm is moving very slowly WNW--more west than north right now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#13 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:00 pm

we will see at 11pm....hopefully!

#14 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:00 pm

IF it stalls for any length of time you will get upwelling and that will weaken Isabel.One more thing. The SST along the Delmarva coast are in the low 70's.That should weaken it if it makes landfall in that area.

Guest · #15 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:01 pm

Misunderstood Tom....................I figured you were assuming that Isabel would go west from her current location which you didnt point out...................It may help if you point these kinds of things out Tom:).......................Yes it may curve again towards the west somewhat when she approaches the VA/NC coast line............

Sorry about the misunderstanding...............

njbeachwx · #16 Postby **njbeachwx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 8:01 pm

wxman57 when u say "but it IS moving right of the NHC" do you mean to the right of the NHC track or right along the NHC track? THanks@

What does the stall mean??

What does the stall mean??

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