Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing for New Year's. Don't think I'll go on the Houston Bicycle club's New Year's bike ride...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx0zdec19.gif

Shades of '83 there.

Not even close to '83. Would need to be another 10-15F colder. 06Z GFS is not nearly as cold, though.

Here's a meteogram for DFW from the 00Z GFS:

[orangeblood]

GFS ENS Mean are going to the lock and hold type pattern to end 2014 into 2015, it's even showing hints of the subtropical jet becoming active around New Years

Check out the moisture stream coming up from the Baja depicted around New Years Eve



Then a storm threat across Texas to start off the New Year

[Portastorm]

Well, only got 1/2" of rain here at the PWC overnight and it was even less than most models progged. Looking forward to a cool, sunny weekend.

Meanwhile, your friendly neighborhood PWC mets are furiously working on the holiday weather ahead and doing our best to spin up miserable conditions for our favorite pro met in the Houston area.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm not liking what I'm seeing for New Year's. Don't think I'll go on the Houston Bicycle club's New Year's bike ride...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx0zdec19.gif

Shades of '83 there.

Not even close to '83. Would need to be another 10-15F colder. 06Z GFS is not nearly as cold, though.

Here's a meteogram for DFW from the 00Z GFS:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx0zdec19.gif

I would expect that if we ran today's models on that cold outbreak from over a week out they did not show the incredible extent of the cold that ended up occurring. Not at all saying that I expect anything like that though, but a 09/10 winter is definitely in the cards.

[Ntxw]

Nothing new that I can see in the ENS overnight. Severe arctic outbreak is looming.

The only kinks I see is run to run sometimes the OP models struggle seeing zonal flow which with so much cold air they try to hold it up, in historic cases and against the -EPO, the cold will win.

[orangeblood]

Nothing new that I can see in the ENS overnight. Severe arctic outbreak is looming.

The only kinks I see is run to run sometimes the OP models struggle seeing zonal flow which with so much cold air they try to hold it up, in historic cases and against the -EPO, the cold will win.

Right on Ntxw, when you see the Ensembles going to this cold so far out something major is looming. Below is just a mean, can you imagine what some of the colder models look like ??

GFS


Canadian

[weatherdude1108]

Well, only got 1/2" of rain here at the PWC overnight and it was even less than most models progged. Looking forward to a cool, sunny weekend.

Meanwhile, your friendly neighborhood PWC mets are furiously working on the holiday weather ahead and doing our best to spin up miserable conditions for our favorite pro met in the Houston area.

Yeah, same here, I don't think I got quite a 1/2" even.

But should be nice holiday travel weather, at least through Christmas. I guess New Years is up in the air based on the "chatter" I'm seeing on this board with the models and teleconnections(?).

[srainhoutx]

Classic +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern with a decent Southern storm track rounding the base of the mean trough and the potential for a NW Gulf Coastal low/wave developing via the Euro Ensemble Mean. Cross Polar flow and a PV anomaly near Hudson Bay is a recipe for all sort of wintry weather issues if the ensembles are correct.

[Portastorm]

If you want winter weather in Texas, this pattern is about as perfect as it could get to make that happen. (Portastorm drooling ... )

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This is all seeming to good to be true.

[TexasF6]

Porta, will there be a special press conference soon?

[Portastorm]

Porta, will there be a special press conference soon?

Not quite yet but there are some internal rumblings at the PWC of a Christmas Day press event. Stay tuned!

[Ralph's Weather]

Classic +PNA/-EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern with a decent Southern storm track rounding the base of the mean trough and the potential for a NW Gulf Coastal low/wave developing via the Euro Ensemble Mean. Cross Polar flow and a PV anomaly near Hudson Bay is a recipe for all sort of wintry weather issues if the ensembles are correct.

Man, that is a dream set-up for snow. Early New Year's week could get real interesting.

[ndale]

Well, only got 1/2" of rain here at the PWC overnight and it was even less than most models progged. Looking forward to a cool, sunny weekend.

Meanwhile, your friendly neighborhood PWC mets are furiously working on the holiday weather ahead and doing our best to spin up miserable conditions for our favorite pro met in the Houston area.

Yeah, same here, I don't think I got quite a 1/2" even.

But should be nice holiday travel weather, at least through Christmas. I guess New Years is up in the air based on the "chatter" I'm seeing on this board with the models and teleconnections(?).

Just checked our gauge and we had about 1.2 inches.

[srainhoutx]

Over 3 inches and still raining lightly in NW Harris County. FYI: KHOU Board is back online for those that have been sending pm's to me.

[Portastorm]

The GFS 12z operational run from New Years on should get people talking around here ... heh.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS 12z operational run from New Years on should get people talking around here ... heh.

The parallel GFS was rather interesting with a Coastal low developing well after the Arctic air is in place across Texas.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Is the Grey Goose on order?

[Texas Snowman]

And has Lucy left the building?

[gatorcane]

The GFS 12z operational run from New Years on should get people talking around here ... heh.

Levi's site is not working right now (could be another DoS attack I wonder?) but from the NCEP site, here is a 12Z GFS graphic for Jan 2nd, and does looks like that could yield some frozen precip and/or snow for Texas including Dallas/Ft Worth, with the 0 Celsius line (at 850MB) cutting right through Texas.