Texas Winter 2014-2015

[srainhoutx]

Levi's site is not working right now (could be another DoS attack I wonder?) but from the NCEP site, here is a graphic for Jan 2nd, and does looks like that could yield some frozen precip and/or snow for Texas including Dallas/Ft Worth, with the 0 Celsius line (at 850MB) cutting right through Texas.

The NCEP is currently running on backup servers due to a technical issue. The vendors typically feed of the main server, so it is not a DOS issue. PSU E wall has the same problem.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

1.91" here so far

[wxman57]

I would expect that if we ran today's models on that cold outbreak from over a week out they did not show the incredible extent of the cold that ended up occurring. Not at all saying that I expect anything like that though, but a 09/10 winter is definitely in the cards.

Back in 1983 I believe we only had the 48hr NGM or LFM model, and the PE model out to 60 hrs. We got a hemispheric 500mb chart for 72hrs and 84hrs. That's about it for data back then. We couldn't look out beyond about 72 hrs with models. I do remember that 1983 outbreak very well. The Arctic air sagged south through OK very slowly in mid December. Snow piled up there. Then right before Christmas the Arctic air plunged south through Texas. Houston was below freezing from the 23-26. Nothing to indicate anything that extreme on the horizon (yet).

Here's a plot from http://weatherspark.com

[Ralph's Weather]

I would expect that if we ran today's models on that cold outbreak from over a week out they did not show the incredible extent of the cold that ended up occurring. Not at all saying that I expect anything like that though, but a 09/10 winter is definitely in the cards.

Back in 1983 I believe we only had the 48hr NGM or LFM model, and the PE model out to 60 hrs. We got a hemispheric 500mb chart for 72hrs and 84hrs. That's about it for data back then. We couldn't look out beyond about 72 hrs with models. I do remember that 1983 outbreak very well. The Arctic air sagged south through OK very slowly in mid December. Snow piled up there. Then right before Christmas the Arctic air plunged south through Texas. Houston was below freezing from the 23-26. Nothing to indicate anything that extreme on the horizon (yet).

Here's a plot from http://weatherspark.com

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iah.gif

Thanks for sharing that. I have heard many stories from that storm from my Dad on that outbreak. He and my Grandad were running a show cattle ranch in McKinney at the time. He has talked about how the snow that started it all down in N TX was not forecasted to amount to much at all, but as they were on their way home from Kansas it kept piling up. And about having to spend Christmas breaking ice for the cows. The expected 500mb pattern sure is intriguing and it should allow continued cold air advection for many days beyond the initial Arctic front on the 27th along with that it would serve as a highway for Pacific storms to pass right over us.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF continues to show the arctic blast though the core just misses Texas to the north, still cold nonetheless (plus these are long-range and subject to change)! All indications are for a significant cold air mass intrusion deep into the lower 48 after Christmas.

[Portastorm]

I think the 12z Euro op run looks to be following the GFS' lead on a more stout discharge of Canadian/Arctic air into the Southern Plains closer to New Years Eve. Granted, the Euro continues to show the airmass though being more transient and not locking in, per se. Of course we have a lot of time between now and then and model volatility will remain the norm until the globals can grasp the nature of the pattern change ahead.

[wxman57]

Thanks for sharing that. I have heard many stories from that storm from my Dad on that outbreak. He and my Grandad were running a show cattle ranch in McKinney at the time. He has talked about how the snow that started it all down in N TX was not forecasted to amount to much at all, but as they were on their way home from Kansas it kept piling up. And about having to spend Christmas breaking ice for the cows. The expected 500mb pattern sure is intriguing and it should allow continued cold air advection for many days beyond the initial Arctic front on the 27th along with that it would serve as a highway for Pacific storms to pass right over us.

Records for McKinney don't go back that far at WxSpark. Here's a plot from DFW of that 1983 event. Note the 12F high on Christmas Eve:

[wxman57]

I think the 12z Euro op run looks to be following the GFS' lead on a more stout discharge of Canadian/Arctic air into the Southern Plains closer to New Years Eve. Granted, the Euro continues to show the airmass though being more transient and not locking in, per se. Of course we have a lot of time between now and then and model volatility will remain the norm until the globals can grasp the nature of the pattern change ahead.

Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro indicates temps in the low 70s here for Christmas Day with a southwest wind.

[Portastorm]

Enjoy your Christmas Day in Houston, wxman57 ... you and I both know a change is a-coming!

On a related note, I don't mind saying what's been said on here before ... we don't want a December 1983 redux! Anyone who was here in Texas then should remember what a freakin' nightmare it was and the misery and financial heartache it brought to many people. While there certainly is a "gee whiz" weather factor involved with an airmass that brutally cold ... trust me, the geez-whiz factor will wear off very quickly once you're cleaning up your house or apartment as a result of broken pipes. I saw the same thing with the December 1989 outbreak although not quite as bad. Still, it got down to 4 degrees here in Austin in 1989 and that also created tons of trouble for everyone.

A lot of people now living in Texas were not here then and they have no clue what sort of nightmare such a cold outbreak would create.

[srainhoutx]

As we old timers know, those events a very rare way down here in the mid latitudes. I agree strongly with Portastorm and wxman57 on the issue of not wanting to see another repeat of 83 or 89 again. Beside the damage mentioned earlier in this thread, those events and particularly 1983 wreaked havoc on our petrochemical industry as well as municipal infrastructure as well as first responders much less the agricultural damage that took years to recover from.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF looks like a class McFarland signature? Right?

[Ralph's Weather]

Thanks for sharing that. I have heard many stories from that storm from my Dad on that outbreak. He and my Grandad were running a show cattle ranch in McKinney at the time. He has talked about how the snow that started it all down in N TX was not forecasted to amount to much at all, but as they were on their way home from Kansas it kept piling up. And about having to spend Christmas breaking ice for the cows. The expected 500mb pattern sure is intriguing and it should allow continued cold air advection for many days beyond the initial Arctic front on the 27th along with that it would serve as a highway for Pacific storms to pass right over us.

Records for McKinney don't go back that far at WxSpark. Here's a plot from DFW of that 1983 event. Note the 12F high on Christmas Eve:

Man that is brutal. I will definitely take some time soon to research what the set-up was exactly ahead of that. March 3rd last year was about as cold as I can remember during the day here and we had some amazingly developed snow flakes from those flurries falling with temps in the teens. It did not reach 20 until around noon with thick cloud cover and a couple inches of sleet on the ground from the previous day. I sure cannot remember any days with highs in the teens here since I have been paying attention to the weather.

[wxman57]

JB just tweeted this Canadian ensemble 2m temp anomaly for Dec 25-30. I can live with that - above normal temps for SE TX! And look at eastern Canada and the Polar region to Alaska. Perhaps winter IS over?

[TheProfessor]

Nope, winter is just beginning. That's only a 5 day span, and those warmer temps will likely be on the front end of those dates

[orangeblood]

12Z ECMWF looks like a class McFarland signature? Right?


http://i60.tinypic.com/30202s1.png

Somewhat...the Core of the Positive Anomalies are typically found more towards Alaska but that is good enough. That setup will bring a massive amount of Arctic Air into the Lower 48 pattern and create winter storms in places rarely seen in a typical winter!!!

[hriverajr]

Of course wxman57 is leaving out the 11-16.. hehe

[Ntxw]

Follow the ENS, the OP is not consistent run to run, rightfully so given lead time. The ENS build heights over Alaska and remain, I would look for gradual shifts towards the Alaskan peninsula and blocking off, its not a transient look. If we see heights explode after that is what determines the severity.

[natlib]

I'm about to declare a winter cancel here in San Angelo. We have not had a temp below freezing yet this month. The record for December here is 4 days below freezing.

[wxman57]

Of course wxman57 is leaving out the 11-16.. hehe

I found that day 11-16 panel a lot less interesting.

[weatherdude1108]

Levi's site is not working right now (could be another DoS attack I wonder?) but from the NCEP site, here is a graphic for Jan 2nd, and does looks like that could yield some frozen precip and/or snow for Texas including Dallas/Ft Worth, with the 0 Celsius line (at 850MB) cutting right through Texas.

The NCEP is currently running on backup servers due to a technical issue. The vendors typically feed of the main server, so it is not a DOS issue. PSU E wall has the same problem.

I just saw this when I was going to check the models:

2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM are unaffected.

3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=290