Texas Winter 2014-2015

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weatherdude1108
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#961 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm not liking what I'm seeing for New Year's. Don't think I'll go on the Houston Bicycle club's New Year's bike ride...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx0zdec19.gif

Shades of '83 there.


Not even close to '83. Would need to be another 10-15F colder. 06Z GFS is not nearly as cold, though.

Here's a meteogram for DFW from the 00Z GFS:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfsx0zdec19.gif


Could you run a plot for the same time period for Austin? Just trying to plan ahead for whatever. Thanks for your plots! :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#962 Postby wxman57 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:52 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:Could you run a plot for the same time period for Austin? Just trying to plan ahead for whatever. Thanks for your plots! :cheesy:


The plot below is from two GFS runs ago. 12Z data isn't coming in due to server issues at NCEP. Using the 6Z run would plot temps at midnight and noon, not giving a good idea of morning lows. The 6z run didn't look nearly as cold.

Image

For comparison, here's the 06Z run (12am CST this morning), just 6 hours later. Quite a difference!:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#963 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 19, 2014 3:58 pm

weatherdude, here is a meteogram for Austin from the 12z GFS. Not the precip colors in light blue! :cheesy:

Image
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#964 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:22 pm

:uarrow:
Oh wow! I'm liking that light blue!! :D IMO, if it's gunna freeze like that, it should snow. These models tend to underestimate the density of the Arctic air in their forecasting.

I need to figure out how to do those fancy meteograms when I have the time. :wink: Thanks guys! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#965 Postby srainhoutx » Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:25 pm

The Updated CPC Day 11+ Analogs continue to advertise below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation as we end December and begin January 2015.

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#966 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:30 pm

Here is what I found for Tyler during Dec 1983 (0 degrees Christmas morning, I bet out where my family lives now it was well below 0 if there was calm wind and clear skies which I would expect there had to be):

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#967 Postby txprog » Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:49 pm

All the talk, and the "promise", of upcoming cold is great. But let's not forget we are really in historical territory with regards to lack of freezing temps. If we do not reach 32 or below at DFW by Dec 27th it will be longest stretch of days without such a temp in the last 40 years. DFW was at 31 on the 2nd. Dec 92 did not have a freeze in December until the 24th.

With regards to serious outbreaks. Seems like since 89 there have two of note, late Jan/early Feb of 96 and early Feb of 2011. In both cases ponds were frozen over and ALMOST ready for a hockey game. In both instances I donned my circa 1976 skates and ventured onto the pond near my house in Plano. It was close but the ice needed another cold day and night I think and that didn't happen.

I have to believe that the 83 and 89 outbreaks caused the ponds to freeze over here to allow ice skating but I can find no mention, discussion, or photos of such activities here in the DFW area. Any help on this?

By the way, I rarely post, but read every day, and offer many, many thanks to the regular contributors.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#968 Postby txprog » Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:51 pm

I should say the last 40 years "at least", as the Weather Underground historical data only goes back to 1974.
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#969 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:08 pm

From Joe Bastardi:

"@BigJoeBastardi: Reason for "wrestling" TWEET lost on most. 77-78 legendary winter, one of our analogs. Was way above normal Dec 10-25! no one remembers I DO."

"@BigJoeBastardi: Dec 10-25 1977, then what followed next 15 days. What followed following 2 months is what most remember."

Note: That last tweet, Joe B. shows map for those 10 days, a map that would have thrilled Wxman57's heart with an ocean of warmth across North America. What followed in the following 10 days on the second map, not so much love for Heat Miser as a direct arctic discharge came south over the eastern 2/3 of the nation. (Didn't include map, not sure if they are WxBell maps or not).

Here's the link to the Twitter image: pic.twitter.com/B71VvvMIUF
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#970 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:08 pm

Regarding the cold "Arctic" air that the models have been showing after Christmas, McCauley is pretty much saying it will be a non-event per his FB post. "Next weekend's cold front will be a brief shot of colder air (not Arctic), but we will moderate fairly quickly. There remains no evidence of wintry precipitation in the extended outlook at this time."

Why this big difference in thought between here on the boards and Steve Mc? I saw some graphics a couple of days ago..few pages back showing North Texas upper 20's at mid day for the 28th/29th depending on GFS or Euro.
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#971 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:15 pm

:uarrow: That's pretty interesting since he's been very quick in the past to suggest the "McFarland signature" and the potential for extreme cold weather visiting the southern plains, even when other mets and model trends weren't in that camp.
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Re:

#972 Postby Portastorm » Fri Dec 19, 2014 5:37 pm

Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: That's pretty interesting since he's been very quick in the past to suggest the "McFarland signature" and the potential for extreme cold weather visiting the southern plains, even when other mets and model trends weren't in that camp.


Meh, we're still 9-10 days away from any significant impact in Texas from possible Arctic air (assuming it happens). He's probably playing it closer to the vest and if you're a public figure like him it probably makes sense. We here on Storm 2K can get all crazy about it 9-10 days out but McCauley is better served by waiting and seeing if there is more model agreement before sounding the alarm claxons.
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#973 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:18 pm

One more post on Dec '83. NWS Norman has weather charts from that period in this article: http://www.srh.weather.gov/oun/?n=events-19831215

And this site is where those maps come from http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/img ... _maps.html. You have to download a plugin to look at them. Up until the middle of the month it was similar to what we have seen zonal and stormy. Just before mid month a big low closed off over the central US and it appears that it moved to north of the Hudson Bay by the 16th (there was a missing day during this process that makes it hard to tell exactly) at this point temps were not extreme in Texas or really over the entirety of the US (single digits in ND). This pumped up the west coast ridge and by the 23rd 500mb heights reached 582 on the Alaska/Yukon border and the Atlantic high almost bridges over Northern Canada. Temps at this point were very extreme with lows around 0 across northern Texas and highs in the teens. After Christmas it looks like the Atlantic blocking breaks and the pattern again becomes progressive.

What I take from this and what has been said by others is to watch how high heights can rise over Alaska because that seems to be a primary controller of how cold we get as that is what dislodges the cold from northwestern North America. Ensembles are currently showing heights around 550mb in Alaska which is good especially with it sticking around like they show. With that I can see highs around freezing for a good period, but not teens. 30 degrees is perfect for snow though and it will not cause major infrastructure issues by freezing everything solid.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#974 Postby richtrav » Fri Dec 19, 2014 6:20 pm

txprog wrote:All the talk, and the "promise", of upcoming cold is great. But let's not forget we are really in historical territory with regards to lack of freezing temps. If we do not reach 32 or below at DFW by Dec 27th it will be longest stretch of days without such a temp in the last 40 years. DFW was at 31 on the 2nd. Dec 92 did not have a freeze in December until the 24th.

With regards to serious outbreaks. Seems like since 89 there have two of note, late Jan/early Feb of 96 and early Feb of 2011. In both cases ponds were frozen over and ALMOST ready for a hockey game. In both instances I donned my circa 1976 skates and ventured onto the pond near my house in Plano. It was close but the ice needed another cold day and night I think and that didn't happen.

I have to believe that the 83 and 89 outbreaks caused the ponds to freeze over here to allow ice skating but I can find no mention, discussion, or photos of such activities here in the DFW area. Any help on this?

By the way, I rarely post, but read every day, and offer many, many thanks to the regular contributors.


I know in 1983 the ponds in Dallas were rock solid, I remember the newspaper accounts of people skating and playing hockey.

On a brighter note, this looks nothing like an historical event coming up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#975 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Dec 19, 2014 7:49 pm

Received 1.04 of rainfall from the overnight rains.
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#976 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Dec 19, 2014 7:57 pm

Finished with 2.30" on the gauges in SL
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#977 Postby knoxtnhorn » Sat Dec 20, 2014 9:20 am

If I'm getting my winter storms correct, that '83 one was a doozy. Duh.

I was playing basketball in my shorts during the day (Richardson, TX), front moved through, water pipe burst in front of our house sending water about 15 feet in the air. The water ended up turning our street into a river which almost immediately froze w/ several inches of ice. I can't recall if the pipe burst the first or second night of the front but I do know we had a frozen pond in our street for a week. Even as a 9 year-old, I felt bad for the guys that had to work all night to fix the large pipe in sub-20 degree temps.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#978 Postby orangeblood » Sat Dec 20, 2014 9:35 am

The period to watch for the best potential re: a Texas Winter Storm continues to be right around the New Year and shortly thereafter....

Image

Image
Last edited by orangeblood on Sat Dec 20, 2014 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#979 Postby wxman57 » Sat Dec 20, 2014 9:41 am

00Z GFS paints a wintry picture across Houston on New Year's Eve. About 1/2" precip with temps below freezing. I expect that to change by the time the event is within 5-7 days. Maybe the temperature will really be in the 80s?

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#980 Postby Ntxw » Sat Dec 20, 2014 9:59 am

Wouldn't it be fun to see some back end flurries on the eve of Christmas eve in North Texas? Models says too warm at the surface but cold aloft with some slight qpf. 5h Vorticity and heights is intense. The trend is your friend within 5 days ;)
Last edited by Ntxw on Sat Dec 20, 2014 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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