Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

LOL. Gatorcane, we are thinking alike this morning. I just posted this same GFS run on the Deep South thread at nearly the same time.

But yeah, should the GFS verify it will be a very cold night for many to ring in 2015 thats for sure. Also, GFS is showing an absolute monster Arctic High dropping into Montana at 1055 mb within the next week as well. Such a strong and massive Arctic High if it verifies would most certainly bring a ton of deep arctic air into the CONUS.

[psyclone]

The long range GFS has been a flip flopping mess for so long it's certainly not trustworthy at this point...having said that, we're overdue to make a payment in the cold weather dept..

[TheStormExpert]

The long range GFS has been a flip flopping mess for so long it's certainly not trustworthy at this point...having said that, we're overdue to make a payment in the cold weather dept..

Definitely agree on the GFS being a total mess, it's been all over the place this year!

Today's teleconnections forecast of the PNA, AO, and NAO do not look well for any sort of cold air coming to Florida during the next two weeks at least. No wonder models backed off the Christmas cold front.

[northjaxpro]

I understand the skepticism above regarding the GFS. However, nonetheless, still have to watch it closely, especially now that we are inside of the 10 day period of this potential event. Who knows, maybe this time the GFS may come close to verifying this time around.

[NDG]

IMO I do not take the GFS seriously past its 5-7 day range forecast unless it is precisely consistent, having said that its 12z run & 18z did not show that solution of subfreezing temps penetrating down to south central FL. Plus I would not take a long range forecast from its 06z & 18z runs too seriously, it is proven that they are the most erroneous when it comes to a long range forecast.

[northjaxpro]

I respect your views regarding the GFS NDG. Yeah, the inconsistencies of the GFS is frustrating for me. I have trusted the GFS with winter patterns and systems in past years, but you are probably right in sticking by not going past 7 days with GFS runs for long range.

[psyclone]

I'm really enjoying the showery thundery weather tonight...balmy temps, a wet landscape with lots of toads/frogs hopping around...my kind of start to astronomical winter.

[NDG]

Yeah, me too, it was nice to see the rain this evening after a high of 80 degrees in my neighborhood, almost 1" of well needed rain.

[NDG]

If the 0z Euro is correct after a quick cool down on Christmas Day it will be a warm rest of the year for at least central and southern FL with a huge 588+ dm mid level ridge in control.

[gatorcane]

My air conditioner was running again this weekend with temps above normal and even some humidity creeping back in with the East flow. With the sun out, it felt even hot at times. I will take that over the cold any day!

[psyclone]

I'm with you Gatorcane. I didn't move to Florida to hope for cold weather. Christmas day looks cool with an immediate rebound thereafter. we've sneaked through December, which can be miserable, in good shape...I hope it keeps rolling.

[northjaxpro]

Well, for all of you not wanting cold, you may get your wish. The latest 8-14 day Temperature forecast from NOAA is suggesting that temps will be considerably below normal down across the Western U.S. (especially the Rockies and Intermountain West, Northern and Central Plains) and well above normal over Florida and above normal in portions of the Southeast U.S. This is hinting to what NDG pointed out above with the 0Z Euro showing that a ridge of High pressure will set up shop across our region to start 2015.

A set up like this should it come to fruition would remind me of last year when we had that stubborn Southeast U.S. ridge protecting us from Old Man Winter. If this verifies next week, all I can say is enjoy the warmth for as long as it can last. If the upper level trough sets up out west during this time frame, we also could be seeing a moist southwesterly flow set up shop across our region, which would lead credence to not only a warm pattern but a wet one across the peninsula and Southeast U.S. as well.

At some point colder temps will return at least to North Florida, but instead of at the start of 2015, it may be delayed more into mid January 2015.

[northjaxpro]

Also, received just over 1.5 inches of rain since last night here at my locale. Very appreciable rainfall after a month-long drought. Still raining currently as a line of rain and storms extend from the Jax area southwest into the GOM as the warm front slowly lifts north. More potential heavy rains are on the way, especially going into Wednesday with the approach of the cold front into the region.

SPC is indicating slight to moderate risk of severe thunderstorms or possible tornadoes across much of the South and into portions of the Florida panhandle spreading east and south during Christmas Eve. I will keep a wary eye on this potential situation, especially after the severe weather outbreak we had back on the eve of Thanksgiving across Northern Florida and here in Jax that day, which produced a 58 mph wind gust in severe storms that rolled through my locale that day.

[NDG]

Here's the big summer like mid level ridge that will be protecting at least central & southern FL from the Arctic air mass in the 5-10 day range if not longer.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like it will be protecting most of the East a Coast from any cold arctic air masses.

[gatorcane]

Globals models show none of this cold air reaching peninsula Florida now. In fact GFS shows the ridge protecting the SE United States holding strong at least through the rest of this month:

[Sanibel]

Warm here. It looks like the front backed-off in intensity (good).

[SouthFloridian92]

This hot weather sucks especially with the humidity and mugginess on top of that. It's too late in the year in the year for it to be this warm. I don't get what's so enjoyable about summer-like weather in the wintertime.

Sometimes I really hate living in Florida. The only people that seem to like this warm weather are the Yankees and the snowbirds.

[NDG]

What is so surprising about this current weather, the FL Peninsula is surrounded by relatively warm tropical waters that influence our climate. Let me give you an example, our average high in most of central FL is in the low 70s right now, is not supposed to be in the low 70s every day, is just an average of daily highs, we come to that average because temps could be as low as 50s/low 60s for highs or as high as upper 70s low 80s for highs. Current temps are nothing out of the ordinary for our area. Now if we were talking about temps getting up into the mid and upper 80s, yes that is a bit unusual.

I am glad we get this warm in the winter, if it was not for the "Yankees and Snowbirds" the FL economy would not be one of the best economies in the Deep South, they bring a lot of $$ to spend down here and they enjoy the break from the brutal winters up north

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS sends a monster arctic blast into the lower 48, it scrapes Central Florida and impacts North Florida, but South Florida escapes yet again...



12Z ECMWF also similar to the GFS for Florida, South Florida seems to get scraped by this arctic blast, looking colder than the GFS for Central and Northern Florida though, could see 30s well into Central Florida if this verifies: