WPAC: INVEST 98W
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cycloneye
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WPAC: INVEST 98W
98W INVEST 141223 0000 2.6N 155.6E WPAC 15 1010
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xtyphooncyclonex
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GFS expecting a tropical storm, probably named, on or before Christmas Day
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xtyphooncyclonex
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NAVGEM showing a weak, disorganized circulation east of the Philippines which is drastically different compared to yesterday's run, which showed a powerful monster brewing.... ECMWF meanwhile shows something similar, although farther to the south. GEM/CMC shows a Wukong-like scenario as it intensifies before landfall just 2 days after Christmas.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Re:
spiral wrote:http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=soas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=24&ZOOM=0&WMO=&ARCHIV=0&LOOP=1&RES=0
GFS is the only model backing this system the other models are no longer developing this invest atm. GFS now models what looks a weak TD its a good result for the Philippines and a good result for the SH.
Weak TD? They're showing a fairly strong tropical storm. (85-95 km/h) (45-50 kts)
This is going to be a bad Christmas gift
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
Ah great...This has such a large outflow aloft that will likely bring heavy rains ruining our christmas day festivities...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
I don't usually pay attention to GFS when it shows something at this time of the year...but so far other models pick up something out of this area as well... 12z model runs point towards a Southern Visayas-Mindanao track.
ECMWF actually shows development as well, in fact the 12z run last night showed a closed TD tracking across Mindanao... Let's see if the latest Euro will show a more pronounced circulation or keep it as a broad tropical wave...
ECMWF actually shows development as well, in fact the 12z run last night showed a closed TD tracking across Mindanao... Let's see if the latest Euro will show a more pronounced circulation or keep it as a broad tropical wave...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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This is an eye-opener. 59-kt STS off North Mindanao
Last edited by xtyphooncyclonex on Wed Dec 24, 2014 4:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
^Actually the maximum wind in the latest GFS run is 59kts, as shown in the text file from the NCEP page.
TG, 0008, 2014122400_F036_062N_1395E_FOF, 2014122400, 03, GFSO, 102, 93N, 1261E, 59, 995
But whether it will be a weak tropical storm or stronger , one thing we should keep an eye on is the heavy rainfall threat. The first tropical cyclone of this year was weak and sheared but it was enough to cause flashfloods and landslides, killing at least 70 in Mindanao. Of course, we wouldn't forget about Washi 3 years ago... Also the timing of the wet MJO phase in the area could add some effects...
TG, 0008, 2014122400_F036_062N_1395E_FOF, 2014122400, 03, GFSO, 102, 93N, 1261E, 59, 995
But whether it will be a weak tropical storm or stronger , one thing we should keep an eye on is the heavy rainfall threat. The first tropical cyclone of this year was weak and sheared but it was enough to cause flashfloods and landslides, killing at least 70 in Mindanao. Of course, we wouldn't forget about Washi 3 years ago... Also the timing of the wet MJO phase in the area could add some effects...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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dexterlabio
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The latest GFS and ECMWF runs are showing landfall on the 28th...the Euro however shows this becoming a TD in the Sulu Sea after crossing Mindanao, the GFS has it as a moderate tropical storm. Right now all the major computer models are pointing at a tropical development before the year ends.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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xtyphooncyclonex
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Impressive banding feature, just needs to develop CDO
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
98W INVEST 141224 0600 5.7N 143.8E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
98W INVEST 141224 1200 6.5N 142.0E WPAC 15 1010
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
NAVGEM continues to be the most aggressive...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W
Deactivated but models do develop this before hitting the Philippines with the exception of EURO which develops this once it reemerges in the south china sea
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