Florida Weather

[NDG]

That's quite a change for the ECMWF of it forecasting the huge Caribbean ridge to give in to the trough in the 7-10 day range. I guess time will tell.

[northjaxpro]

I will pay attention to consistency. If the EURO shows the arctic air approaching Florida in future runs the next 24-36 hours as opposed to the ridge that clearly showed on yesterday's runs, then it would become clearer within a week's time that the EURO and GFS are coming intop agreement.

Not yet though. Christmas Day we should get a better indication one way or the other IMO.

[gatorcane]

Not looking like winter across South Florida this coming weekend:

NWS Miami snippet:
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REINFORCE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Point forecast for my locale, lows not going below 70F, not summer-like, but warm nonetheless:

Friday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. East wind 11 to 13 mph.

Friday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind around 13 mph.

Saturday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. East wind around 13 mph.

Saturday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind around 11 mph

[HURRICANELONNY]

I noticed to alot of flip-flopping in model runs as well as cpc's nao/ao model runs. I guess can't trust anything out of 96 hr. range. At least that's what I believe. Would like to see some artic air get down here next year. Which is in a little over a week. Happy Holidays everyone.

[gatorcane]

Well there is definitely some flip-flopping going on. Here is the 18Z GFS 2M temps for 1AM EST Jan 2. Looks rather cold considering these temps are not even the lows which typically happen just before sunrise:

[TheStormExpert]

What's even more impressive are the the daytime highs on New Year's Day!


18z GFS Hr. 216

[StormingB81]

If 40 VERIFIES* on New Years day in Orlando I could only imagine that nighttime temp...lol

[northjaxpro]

As I mentioned earlier, keep a close eye on future EURO runs. If they continue to trend colder for next week for Florida, then that will definitely grab my attention.

[asd123]

:uarrow: What's even more impressive are the the daytime highs on New Year's Day!


18z GFS Hr. 216
http://i58.tinypic.com/16096o5.png

Those aren't the daytime highs, they are 1pm temps. These are the highs: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=228

Don't get me wrong, low to mid 40s is still cold for cfla highs. lows for cfla are fcsted to be approaching mid 20s: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... F&hour=216

[asd123]

As I mentioned earlier, keep a close eye on future EURO runs. If they continue to trend colder for next week for Florida, then that will definitely grab my attention.

No real cool weather for the Euro previously, but this past run of the Euro caught my attention. Near freezing 850 mb temps for cfla, and according to Weatherbell 2m temps out to 240 hours, a freeze for cfla. The teleconnections haven't been updated on Weatherbell. Now the GFS is latching on to this cold solution for the 18z run today, so let's look at future runs.

GFS and Euro have been flip flopping extremely in the past couple of days. I think it was just yesterday that I thought the GFS and Euro were going to torch us. For example, yesterday's GFS showed no 40s for at least the next two weeks for Orlando.

[TheStormExpert]

As I mentioned earlier, keep a close eye on future EURO runs. If they continue to trend colder for next week for Florida, then that will definitely grab my attention.

Wonder if today's 12z runs of the GFS and Euro were catching onto today's teleconnections forecasts showing the NAO/AO briefly dipping negative right before New Year's? Of course the PNA won't be favorable.

NAO Forecast:


AO Forecast:


PNA Forecast:


It will be interesting to see the teleconnections forecasts over the next several days to see if they continue to flip-flop like they always tend to do or if they stay somewhat consistent. Tomorrow's 12z run's should be interesting depending on what tommorrow's teleconnections forecast shows.

[TheStormExpert]

This hot weather sucks especially with the humidity and mugginess on top of that. It's too late in the year in the year for it to be this warm. I don't get what's so enjoyable about summer-like weather in the wintertime.

Sometimes I really hate living in Florida. The only people that seem to like this warm weather are the Yankees and the snowbirds.

I feel your pain for sure!

The reason I live here in S. Florida is to escape the brutal cold typically experienced throughout the winter in most places up north, but to still be able to experience our version of winter (highs: 60's/70's, Lows: 40's/50's) as well.

Cannot remember the last Christmas were it actually felt like Christmas here in S. Florida.

Thanksgiving on the other hand has been cool/cold for the past several years, what gives!

[NDG]

So far the 0z GFS run holds the ridge longer than previous 2 runs for next week. Now lets see if the Euro goes back to previous solutions.

[TheStormExpert]

So far the 0z GFS run holds the ridge longer than previous 2 runs for next week. Now lets see if the Euro goes back to previous solutions.

Yeah the 0z GFS drops that idea altogether. This solution seems more reasonable and I don't want to get my hopes up so I'll follow this solution.

[NDG]

0z Euro says, slight cool down for New Year's Eve in central FL as TX & and rest of the south go into a deep freeze and see wintry Precip. South FL you stay warm.

[TheStormExpert]

Well today's teleconnections forecast now show the NAO/AO actually going negative again briefly before sharply going back positive, of course the PNA now decides to hover around nuetral/negative territory after being positive for so long. What kind of influence could this have on any cold air that may try to come our way? I know that pesky SE ridge has returned after not being present at all so far this fall/winter season.

NAO Forecast:


AO Forecast:


PNA Forecast:

[NDG]

:uarrow: Well today's teleconnections forecast now show the NAO/AO actually going negative again briefly before sharply going back positive, of course the PNA now decides to hover around nuetral/negative territory after being positive for so long. What kind of influence could this have on any cold air that may try to come our way? I know that pesky SE ridge has returned after not being present at all so far this fall/winter season.

NAO Forecast:
http://i58.tinypic.com/255hyds.jpg

AO Forecast:
http://i59.tinypic.com/21jcgnt.jpg

PNA Forecast:
http://i60.tinypic.com/160zqes.jpg

Yes, the ensembles show the NAO going briefly negative, but just like in November by no means we are talking about a crashing negative NAO regime taking place, it bounces back to the positive side the following week.
Also, looking at the heights forecast by both the GFS and Euro, the brief negative NAO is more "East" Atlantic Based, which means FL and the immediate SE US Atlantic coast of the US do not go that much below average, if at all.

[NDG]

So far officially 84 degrees in Orlando so far, we have least tied the record. Who would had thought we would had been talking about record breaking high temps for Christmas Eve a few weeks ago when many were forecasting a deep freeze for this area.
BTW, with the 70 degree dewpoint the heat index is of 88 deg F, lol.


Conditions at: KMCO (ORLANDO , FL, US) observed 1853 UTC 24 December 2014
Temperature: 28.9°C (84°F)
Dewpoint: 21.1°C (70°F) [RH = 63%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.84 inches Hg (1010.6 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1010.3 mb]
Winds: from the S (190 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 knots; 8.3 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more miles (16+ km)
Ceiling: 5000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 3500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 5000 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 25000 feet AGL

[northjaxpro]

79 degrees currently at my ponderosa. Just got home and the air is very muggy indeed ahead of this approaching front. Radar shows that rain and thunderstorms are moving in the Jacksonville area. This round one coming in now with the pre-frontal squall line. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop later tonight or overnight with the approach of the actual cold front, which is progged to come through Jax sometime during the pre-dawn hours. So far so good as no severe weather as occurred in Northeast Florida yet. However, I will keep an eye out as the evening progresses.






As for the potential of cold weather leading into New Year's Day, it's a battle to see if cold air at least penetrates the Northern Florida area, or if the SE ridge will build in enough to deflect it away by this time next week. I have seen the updated models and checked the teleconnections, and as NDG metioned above there may be a very brief window of the NAO going negative. We will await to see if that happens at all. We have been so lucky here across the peninsula these last several years during winter where the NAO just has not gone negative. We will see if our luck continues.

[northjaxpro]

Tornado warning issued in Northern St Johns county as reports of a funnel cloud was observed near Sawgrass, just southeast of Greater Jax area. It appears on radar that severe storm cell is now moving offshore.

EDIT: Tornadic cell now offshore. Tornado warning now expired at 4:15 p.m.