SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression (INVEST 94P)

[jaguarjace]

94P INVEST 141222 1200 15.0S 163.0W SHEM 20 1004


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 22/0959 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTER [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.9S 162.7W
AT 220600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOOR BASED ON GOES IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IS POOR. CONVECTION IS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFULENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND EAST OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTION FOR TD03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

[Grifforzer]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 22/1944 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTER [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.1S 160.5W AT 221800UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH.CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY WEST-SOUTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EAST-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT THEN SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Northern Cooks ON ACTIVE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 22/2348 UTC 2014 UTC.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANAHIKI, PENRHYN AND RAKAHANGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
160.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 159.9W, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO NORTHEAST OF A POORLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 230843Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AS WIND
SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE PERIPHERIES WITH THE MAX WINDS
LOCATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER BY
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT HAS PERSISTED WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

WTPS21 PGTW 231700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 159.6W TO 16.2S 156.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
159.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S
159.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 159.0W, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN
AREA OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC. A 231500Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A
230843Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241700Z.//
NNNN

[Grifforzer]

Nadi now forecast system to become tropical cyclone NUTE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 23/1939 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTER [999HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.8S 158.8W AT 231800UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND IS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENT REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP GIVING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YEILDING T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EASTERLY MOVEMENT THEN SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID 240600 UTC 14.2S 158.1W MOV ESE AT 04KT WITH 35 KNOTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID 241800 UTC 15.2S 157.5W MOV SE AT 05KT WITH 40 KNOTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID 250600 UTC 16.4S 157.3W MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 45 KNOTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID 280600 UTC 17.6S 157.3W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 45 KNOTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE

[jaguarjace]

94P INVEST 141224 1200 14.5S 158.5W SHEM 30 1000

[Grifforzer]

GALE WARNING 016 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 24/1311 UTC 2014 UTC.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 060 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 24/1330 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTER [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.7S 157.6W AT 241200UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. TD03F LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP GIVING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING

T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID 250000 UTC 15.2S 157.0W MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 30 KNOTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID 251200 UTC 17.0S 156.6W MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 30 KNOTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID 260000 UTC 19.0S 156.1W MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 30 KNOTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID 261200 UTC 20.9S 154.8W MOV SSE AT 10KT WITH 35 KNOTS
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 242000UTC.

[jaguarjace]

94P INVEST 141224 1800 15.0S 158.7W SHEM 25 1004

[Grifforzer]

tropical disturbance advisories were discontinued at 0:00 AM UTC (25DEC)

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 25/0928 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 158.2W AT 250600 UTC. TD03F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. TD03F LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE FAR EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTION FOR TD03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.