Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TeamPlayersBlue]

RGV....notice the low in the Gulf too... Snow for SE Tx? How much?

[SouthernMet]

Looks like the latest GFS/PGFS both change this from a Jan 1-2 event to a early New Years Eve/New Years event.. Making it potentially 7 days away now. PGFS still showing impressive snow accumulation amounts for a good portion of Texas, but not that 2 feet it showed last run, looks more reasonable.

[Ralph's Weather]

Yep, the 06Z PGFS looks reasonable with a winter storm around the 31st then cold through the weekend. The degrees of each of those will be determined as gets closer.

[Portastorm]

This is what happens when you let the Grey Goose-swilling mets from the Portastorm Weather Center program the computer models!

MERRY CHRISTMAS PORTA!! I think the 0zGFS Parallel went a bit overboard with the snowfall......

0zGFS Parallel Total Snowfall January 2..
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Winter%202014-15/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_tx_41_zps0a737f3b.png

Closer look...pretty impressive!
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Winter%202014-15/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_austin_40_zpse80123b8.png

[wxman57]

:uarrow: RGV....notice the low in the Gulf too... Snow for SE Tx? How much?

The 00Z ECMWF is saying 1-3" across Houston, 2" in Beaumont, 4-6" around Lufkin and little or nothing up in Dallas. If we do get the cold air over TX and a low in the Gulf, then the moisture would dramatically decrease as you move northward away from the moisture source (the Gulf). The event is still 8 days out. I've seen models forecast freezing/frozen precip for SE TX many times in the past. Most times the event turns out to be rain with a few sleet pellets. Sometimes not...

[opticsguy]

Both the parallel and ops GFS are starting to look similar. The local TV mets haven't said much yet.

I have some firewood to split today.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: RGV....notice the low in the Gulf too... Snow for SE Tx? How much?

The 00Z ECMWF is saying 1-3" across Houston, 2" in Beaumont, 4-6" around Lufkin and little or nothing up in Dallas. If we do get the cold air over TX and a low in the Gulf, then the moisture would dramatically decrease as you move northward away from the moisture source (the Gulf). The event is still 8 days out. I've seen models forecast freezing/frozen precip for SE TX many times in the past. Most times the event turns out to be rain with a few sleet pellets. Sometimes not...

Merry Christmas Wxman 57. I want to wish you and your family a great holiday. May it be filled with Hot days and sultry nights....not!!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Anybody care to post some graphics from the euro showing the precip and setup? Thanks

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow: RGV....notice the low in the Gulf too... Snow for SE Tx? How much?

The 00Z ECMWF is saying 1-3" across Houston, 2" in Beaumont, 4-6" around Lufkin and little or nothing up in Dallas. If we do get the cold air over TX and a low in the Gulf, then the moisture would dramatically decrease as you move northward away from the moisture source (the Gulf). The event is still 8 days out. I've seen models forecast freezing/frozen precip for SE TX many times in the past. Most times the event turns out to be rain with a few sleet pellets. Sometimes not...

Thanks bud! Yes this is true. We need to start with the cold here for that to happen. We will know in two days if this will happen i think. We are starting to get into the range where the upper dynamics will start taking place for this to happen, or at least a short term forecast for one. The ridge will begin to poke up in Alaska soon. Once that happens, we can see the cold. The moisture part, or the energy hanging back, im not good enough at model reading to predict if that will happen.

[BigB0882]

:uarrow: RGV....notice the low in the Gulf too... Snow for SE Tx? How much?

The 00Z ECMWF is saying 1-3" across Houston, 2" in Beaumont, 4-6" around Lufkin and little or nothing up in Dallas. If we do get the cold air over TX and a low in the Gulf, then the moisture would dramatically decrease as you move northward away from the moisture source (the Gulf). The event is still 8 days out. I've seen models forecast freezing/frozen precip for SE TX many times in the past. Most times the event turns out to be rain with a few sleet pellets. Sometimes not...

Does any of that make it over to SELA or will we be too warm and/or too far away from the precip?

[wxman57]

Anybody care to post some graphics from the euro showing the precip and setup? Thanks

I can't post a WxBell graphic, but I can post my own from our system. Unfortunately, we can currently plot only snow in millimeters of liquid accumulation. I've converted mm liquid to inches of snow with my edits (in white).

[david30]

Wxman57, that 6 inch bullseye runs right into my county in NW MS, if we get half of that and this storm holds up, I will be a happy camper.

[hriverajr]

That map would suck for me... (Del Rio) I would prefer no coastal low :p

[aggiecutter]

This is what happens when you let the Grey Goose-swilling mets from the Portastorm Weather Center program the computer models!

MERRY CHRISTMAS PORTA!! I think the 0zGFS Parallel went a bit overboard with the snowfall......

0zGFS Parallel Total Snowfall January 2..
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Winter%202014-15/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_tx_41_zps0a737f3b.png

Closer look...pretty impressive!
http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Winter%202014-15/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_austin_40_zpse80123b8.png

I hope that map verifies. If it does, you will join the Weatherman57 heat miser club.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Pretty impressive looking graphic wxman, thanks.

But we all know that wont happen so its not even worth wasting time to wish for I still remember the euro runs from our last years winter storms showing south LA getting dumped on a couple of times and we got nothing but some sleet and freezing rain. And sad thing is that was only 24 hrs or less out. Euro busted big time every time.

[aggiecutter]

This from CNN breaking news. Jim Cantore's response when asked about the possible 16" of snow for the Austin area next week:

[BigB0882]

Pretty impressive looking graphic wxman, thanks.

But we all know that wont happen so its not even worth wasting time to wish for I still remember the euro runs from our last years winter storms showing south LA getting dumped on a couple of times and we got nothing but some sleet and freezing rain. And sad thing is that was only 24 hrs or less out. Euro busted big time every time.

The models were showing the snow during the event and we were just getting sleet and/or freezing rain. It was still neat and so rare to happen to often down here but if we had gotten snow all those times, wouldn't that have been something? Maybe this year? I won't bank on it but one can dream.

[wxman57]

That map would suck for me... (Del Rio) I would prefer no coastal low :p

Of course, no coastal low would mean no passing upper trof - and no snow for anyone.

[srainhoutx]

Big SW trough developing via the 12Z GFS. 1050mb+ Arctic High building S into Montana and a lot of disturbances embedded with the SW flow aloft over New Mexico and Texas. The West Coast Ridge builds well into Alaska and NW Canada ushering in very chilly air into the Great Basin, Inter Mountain West and the Plains.

[Ntxw]

Heck of an Arctic front a comin, stock up on bread and milk