Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TheProfessor]

The models did the exact same thing last year, it was one of the reasons WSWs were put out late and so many of us were Harping on NWS FWD.

[Ralph's Weather]

I expect it won't be until Monday before we have a good idea about the middle of the week. I expect it won't dig as far as the models are showing this morning with the strength of the west coast ridge and the Hawaiian low ending up more in southeastern Cali or Arizona by early next week. At that point I expect it will move in our direction with impulses out ahead of it in the southwest flow. These impulses will be our main concern right now as they should provide chances for light precip over the very cold surface Tuesday through Thursday. By Friday and Saturday the main trough should be nearby which depending on how much moderation we get by then will either be a decent rain or snow event.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm away from home right now but I like the idea of that WX man has. I was thinking this morning that I need to look at similar weather patterns from the past to compare to this event. I'd like to get an idea of what the temps will be like here in SE Texas. Also I am curious as to what the upper air pattern looks like. The only problem is the models are having such a difficult time with the arctic air that I don't think we could properly forecast what the upper air analysis would be. The NAM this morning had a 1062 hi just northwest of Montana.

For us here in SE Texas I don't think we necessarily need the ull for a lot of moisture but if we want a very widespread event the ull would need to be in place. Banking on a coastal low for us.

[Rgv20]

NWS in Brownsville morning discussion....Looks like they are very aware of temperatures likely being too warm.

ATTENTION NOW FOCUSES ON THE NEXT FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY MORNING. A 1050 MB OR MORE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND THEN CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WILL LOWER
50S NEAR THE COAST. THIS IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER. MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND OVER RUNNING LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR STEADY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WEST
TO MID 50S EAST...WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWER AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDER
ESTIMATING THE COLDER AIR MASS TO OUR NORTH. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SURGES INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RATHER CHILLY FOR NEW YEARS EVE AS BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND OVER
RUNNING LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEW
YEARS DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S.

[Portastorm]

As a reminder, the Portastorm Weather Center will be holding a press conference today at 3 pm. Special guests will be wxman57, Ntxw, and dhweather.

[Tireman4]

As a reminder, the Portastorm Weather Center will be holding a press conference today at 3 pm. Special guests will be wxman57, Ntxw, and dhweather.

Excuse me sir. I thought ( according to my draft notes) that the Grey Goose driver will be there? Was he left out at the last minute? Also, I see "Get Champ The Charger ready for extreme road conditions". What does that mean?

[Kennethb]

If I recall It was during winter about 5 years ago or so that a 1050+ high was first initiated in the 10 day+ range raising hopes and drawing skepticism, similar as now. This strong high then began showing up within the 7 day window, showing consistency and getting even the skeptics on board. However it never materialized. It takes quite a bit of timing to make all of the parameters to come together to make such large highs and get frigid air down south. This is what makes watching and discussing weather interesting, especially during the winter. I am all for wintry weather here in Baton Rouge. We do not need frigid air. Just some good sustained cold with a good active STJ.

[Portastorm]

As a reminder, the Portastorm Weather Center will be holding a press conference today at 3 pm. Special guests will be wxman57, Ntxw, and dhweather.

Excuse me sir. I thought ( according to my draft notes) that the Grey Goose driver will be there? Was he left out at the last minute? Also, I see "Get Champ The Charger ready for extreme road conditions". What does that mean?

The Grey Goose driver and Champ the Charger are regular fixtures, sir. I was noting our "special guests" for today's briefing.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

The models did the exact same thing last year, it was one of the reasons WSWs were put out late and so many of us were Harping on NWS FWD.

It's the very definition of model-hugging. I get it, though. Here in North Texas, if they predict winter weather and it doesn't happen, they get crucified by the local media.

[Ntxw]

If I recall It was during winter about 5 years ago or so that a 1050+ high was first initiated in the 10 day+ range raising hopes and drawing skepticism, similar as now. This strong high then began showing up within the 7 day window, showing consistency and getting even the skeptics on board. However it never materialized. It takes quite a bit of timing to make all of the parameters to come together to make such large highs and get frigid air down south. This is what makes watching and discussing weather interesting, especially during the winter. I am all for wintry weather here in Baton Rouge. We do not need frigid air. Just some good sustained cold with a good active STJ.

This is a good post. I recall some of those as well. However in the past we did not understand or even know to look at the EPO. That is where these monster highs materialized. We believed models during a period where the EPO was predominantly positive thus is usually damped out. Since last year though the Pacific has reversed and by long term trends, these highs have materialized the past 12-18 months in due part of the regime change of the Pacific.

[Tireman4]

As a reminder, the Portastorm Weather Center will be holding a press conference today at 3 pm. Special guests will be wxman57, Ntxw, and dhweather.

Excuse me sir. I thought ( according to my draft notes) that the Grey Goose driver will be there? Was he left out at the last minute? Also, I see "Get Champ The Charger ready for extreme road conditions". What does that mean?

The Grey Goose driver and Champ the Charger are regular fixtures, sir. I was noting our "special guests" for today's briefing.

Yes sir. I see that in my notes here. Thank you for clarifying. (Geeze...rookie mistake Tireman..LOL)

[Ptarmigan]

The anomalous winter of 1783–1784: Was the Laki eruption or an analog of the 2009–2010 winter to blame?
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~jsmerdon/ ... goetal.pdf

The Winter of 1783-1784 was very cold and during the Little Ice Age. Think about that happening today.

[Ptarmigan]

If I recall It was during winter about 5 years ago or so that a 1050+ high was first initiated in the 10 day+ range raising hopes and drawing skepticism, similar as now. This strong high then began showing up within the 7 day window, showing consistency and getting even the skeptics on board. However it never materialized. It takes quite a bit of timing to make all of the parameters to come together to make such large highs and get frigid air down south. This is what makes watching and discussing weather interesting, especially during the winter. I am all for wintry weather here in Baton Rouge. We do not need frigid air. Just some good sustained cold with a good active STJ.

Predicting strong high pressure systems is just as difficult as forecasting hurricanes.

[Portastorm]

The anomalous winter of 1783–1784: Was the Laki eruption or an analog of the 2009–2010 winter to blame?
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~jsmerdon/ ... goetal.pdf

The Winter of 1783-1784 was very cold and during the Little Ice Age. Think about that happening today.

I think it may be time to name Ptarmigan as the official Storm2K academic weather researcher.

Fascinating read, sir. Thank you for sharing.

[PauleinHouston]

As a reminder, the Portastorm Weather Center will be holding a press conference today at 3 pm. Special guests will be wxman57, Ntxw, and dhweather.

Porta, hey from League City (between KHOU and KGLS). Was wondering how to view the press conference today?

[Ptarmigan]

I think it may be time to name Ptarmigan as the official Storm2K academic weather researcher.

Fascinating read, sir. Thank you for sharing.

I am the Weather Historian.

On that topic of freezes, I think Houston has seen more single digit temperatures and even subzero. Of course, there were no weather stations back than.

[Portastorm]

As a reminder, the Portastorm Weather Center will be holding a press conference today at 3 pm. Special guests will be wxman57, Ntxw, and dhweather.

Porta, hey from League City (between KHOU and KGLS). Was wondering how to view the press conference today?

Paul, we're hoping to webcast live via the Sony Network but have concerns now about IT security in lieu of recent events. Stay tuned to Storm2K for more details, sir.

[Ptarmigan]

Another huge freeze occurred in 1886.

The Great Freeze of 1885-1886
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/paig ... ze1886.pdf

Freeze of 1886
http://www.ausbcomp.com/%5C~bbott/subjects/freeze86.htm

In the January 1886 freeze, Galveston saw a low of 11°F That is the third lowest temperature on record for Galveston. Only February 1899 is colder.

Tompkins: Documenting Texas coast's big chills
http://www.chron.com/sports/article/Tom ... 687256.php

Snow... In Galveston?
http://www.rosenberg-library.org/collec ... /snow.html

It also snowed that time and Galveston Bay froze over. 1885-1886 is second in terms of snowfall amount after 1894-1895.

Threaded Extreme
http://threadex.rcc-acis.org/

[srainhoutx]

Rausch provided an excellent analysis of the Extended Range a bit ago and is worth reading regarding our sensible weather in the Medium Range.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 29 2014 - 12Z FRI JAN 02 2015

...OVERVIEW...

AT LEAST AT THE LARGEST SCALES THERE IS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
RESPECT TO AN ERN PAC/NWRN NOAM MEAN RIDGE SUPPORTING A DEEP
POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM NERN CANADA... A
PATTERN THAT WILL FOCUS VERY COLD TEMPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WRN-CNTRL CONUS AND LIKELY CONFINE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS TO THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST. WITHIN THIS FLOW THE GREATEST INDIVIDUAL
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A PSBL UPR LOW THAT MAY CLOSE OFF OVER
OR NEAR CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THEN EJECT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THERE
IS STILL MEANINGFUL SPREAD WITH THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM.


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE ECMWF MEAN IN
PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD MOST OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
THAT IS TAKING NWRN CONUS ENERGY AND CLOSING OFF A RATHER DEEP UPR
LOW OVER THE VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA WITH SUBSEQUENT EJECTION
ACROSS SRN PORTION OF THE WEST. COMPARING THE FULL RANGE OF MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THE OPERATIONAL 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS APPEAR TOO
FAST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD... EVEN OUTPACING RECENT GEFS
MEANS WHOSE TRENDS HAVE TENDED TO LAG THOSE OF THE ECMWF MEAN BY
AT LEAST A CYCLE. 00Z/06Z PARALLEL GFS RUNS ARE MUCH MORE
COMPATIBLE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN WHILE THE 00Z CMC/UKMET
ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER. ALSO BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
PARALLEL GFS RUNS ALSO COMPARE WELL TO THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN IN
HOLDING ONTO A STRONGER ERN PAC RIDGE THAN GEFS/OPERATIONAL GFS
SOLNS.

CURRENTLY PREFER HALF TO 2/3 WEIGHTING OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE NOW
THAT TRENDS ARE SUPPORTING A FAIRLY DEEP UPR LOW. IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN WHETHER THE UPR LOW WILL BE QUITE AS DEEP AS THE 00Z ECMWF
AND SOME OTHER SOLNS THAT SHOW A POCKET OF 500MB HGTS REACHING
3-3.5 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL... BUT SIMILAR ANOMALIES ON THE POSITIVE
SIDE ARE NOTED OVER NWRN CANADA EARLIER IN THE PERIOD SO A DEEP
UPR LOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUS THE ULTIMATE PREFERENCE
IS FOR A BLEND OF THE 00Z PARALLEL GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF MEAN.
PARALLEL GFS RUNS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW CROSSING THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE CONUS LEADING
TO A COUPLE STRONG NRN ATLC SFC WAVES... SO GFS-P WEIGHTING IS
MAXIMIZED AT 30 PCT.

ON A BROADER NOTE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT PSBL RETROGRESSION OF THE
NRN PART OF THE ERN PAC/NWRN NOAM RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CORE OF POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES NEAR/OFF THE
SRN ALASKA COAST IS... THE ASSOC TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST GREATEST
RESULTING SENSITIVITY TO BE IN THE SWD EXTENT OF COLD AIR/NWD
EXTENT OF MSTR OVER THE SWRN CONUS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

EXPECT THE MOST EXTREME COLD ANOMALIES OVER WRN-CNTRL AREAS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NRN-CNTRL
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS PSBLY EXPERIENCING A DAY OR TWO OF READINGS
20-35F BELOW NORMAL. VERY CHILLY DAYTIME HIGHS... 10-20F BELOW
NORMAL... MAY EXTEND LATER INTO THE PERIOD OVER THE SWRN STATES IN
ASSOC WITH THE UPR LOW THAT IS FCST TO AFFECT THE REGION. FARTHER
N/NE THE SFC GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH PUSHING SWD
FROM WRN CANADA WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOWS ALONG
FAVORED EWD-FACING TERRAIN... WHILE THE CALIFORNIA UPR LOW MAY
LEAD TO UNUSUALLY LOW SNOW LVLS FOR A TIME OVER SWRN AREAS WHICH
MAY SEE SOME TERRAIN-ENHANCED PCPN. TIMING OF THE EJECTING UPR
LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING TIMING/EXTENT OF MSTR THAT
SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE PLAINS EWD LATE IN THE PERIOD... WITH
MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES LIKELY GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF SUFFICIENTLY COLD
AIR. MEANWHILE ONE OR TWO IMPULSES MAY BRING LGT PCPN TO PARTS OF
THE GRTLKS/NORTHEAST BUT WITH THE BEST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY BEING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.

RAUSCH

[Tammie]

Lord have MERCY!!! Too many acronyms for this novice to comprehend! Can you please explain all this in English, and feel free to talk to me like I'm stupid. I won't be offended!