Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gpsnowman]

The Euro is clueless. The GFS is sorta on track. And the PGFS is actually decent though still not cold enough or fast enough. I think I heard the the NAM is looking decent but we are still abut out of its range. Everybody relying on their weather apps are going to be in for a shock.

Funny you mentioned that cause I just looked at my WFAA weather app and it has a high of 35 on Wednesday and a high of 44 Thursday with lows around 30.

Edit: PWC!PWC!PWC!PWC!

[Portastorm]

THE HOUNDS OF WINTER ARE ABOUT TO RELEASED

PWC mets sound the alarm for Texas



AUSTIN (Storm2K Network) – The Portastorm Weather Center (“PWC”) this afternoon held a press conference, announcing that a major wintry blast is on its way to Texas. PWC mets believe a major Arctic cold front will impact the state on Tuesday with wintry weather to follow on New Years Eve and New Years Day.

“Texans shouldn’t be fooled by this recent spell of warm weather. Winter is coming! We believe next week’s Arctic front will usher in a major blast of very cold air followed by some opportunity for wintry precipitation in many parts of Texas,” said PWC spokesperson Texas Snowman. “Our meteorologists believe the computer models are as clueless as Miley Cyrus at a Southern Baptist Convention meeting. And we also have support from other meteorologists like wxman57 (known in some circles as “Heat Miser”) and qualified weather enthusiasts like Ntxw, orangeblood, Rgv20, gpsnowman, ronyan, Ralph’s Weather, and srainhoutx.”

After rattling off the list of alleged supporters of the PWC forecast, the press conference took a more interesting turn with the introduction of the venerable wxman57, a private sector meteorologist based out of Houston and known for his warm bias. The well-respected met agreed that he felt the computer models did not have a good grasp on the situation for next week.

“It doesn’t look good for next week,” wxman57 said. “I’m growing more concerned about my ability to take 30-mike bike rides as the weather will be miserable for me. I hate winter and cold weather, but I cannot say with any degree of certainty that I’m going to like what the Arctic is bringing me next week.”

In appreciation for his appearance at the press conference, the PWC presented wxman57 with this (image below) specially equipped bicycle as they believe wxman57 will need something like this to cycle in southeast Texas next week.



But not all in attendance concurred with the frosty, icy winter lovefest. Known critic, dhweather, scoffed at the PWC forecast and said it was full of hyperbole.

“Oh, I’ve heard this before from them. Arctic air … snow and ice in Texas … winter is coming … blah, blah, blah. What’s next, a Cat 5 in the Gulf? I’ll believe when it’s snow or icing down on top of me in Heath, Texas.”

The PWC ended the press event with an encouragement for weather enthusiasts in Texas to keep a close eye on the weather and a close eye on Storm2K as new information will likely be presented as we get closer to New Year’s Eve. They also indicated that Champ the Charger is gassed up, has snow tires, new wiper blades, and is ready to chase wintry weather in Austin, and that extra supplies of Grey Goose are being shipped in to the PWC office to aid PWC mets with their forecasts.

[gpsnowman]

Bravo PWC and its affiliates. Bravo! Well done. January and February could make up for a lost December. Hope all had a Merry Christmas. New Years could be a doozy.

[KatDaddy]

LOL!!!!! Awesome Porta! Well done.

[perk]

Great job PWC.

[ronyan]

Great and hilarious write up from the PWC as usual, sums things up nicely for next week's forecast! I'm not sure wxman would be out riding in wintry weather even with that awesome vehicle. I would give it a go if I had one.

[ronyan]

There's a 1065mb giant HP showing up on the 18z NAM @ 57hrs in NW Canada. Drives it towards the US as 1056-1062 at the end of the run.

[Rgv20]

lol Nice Porta! "I believe an Autumn front is in the offering for Texas'' ECMWF said. "I'm getting replaced, I'm taking my ball and going home" GFS said.

12zECMWF Ensembles just came in an in fact they are colder than the operational run. By Sunday global models should start playing catch up on surface temperatures.

[Tammie]

Cavanaugh chimes in on next weeks system. Kinda thought we would be hearing from him after the last AFD.

Fxus64 kfwd 262159 afdfwd Area forecast discussion National Weather Service fort worth tx 359 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Discussion: Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a large upper trough over the conus rockies with broad ridging over the eastern half of the conus and an amplified ridge centered over the yukon and extending south over the northwestern conus coast. A strong shortwave trough was observed over the far northeastern pacific ocean, south of anchorage Alaska. Locally, visible satellite imagery showed a thick Deck of low clouds over locations along and east of the interstate 35/35w corridor. Just to the west of the interstate 35 corridor, skies were mostly clear. This relatively sharp edge to the cloud cover in place across north and central Texas resulted in a fairly strong west to east temperature gradient across the cwa this afternoon. The temperature at dfw at 230 pm was 60 while the temperature at granbury was 71.

Regional radars and surface observations continue to indicate some pockets of very light rain/sprinkles moving north within the Deck of clouds east of interstate 35 this afternoon. This light rain is expected to persist, but will not amount to much more than a hundredth of an inch of rain through this evening. Between cloud cover and southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph, temperatures are expected to remain mild across much of the cwa until late this evening. A piece of energy aloft embedded with the conus rockies upper trough is expected to eject northeast over the southern plains this evening. This is expected to send the nearly stationary cold front, currently extending from southwest Oklahoma across the southern Texas panhandle, southeast across north central Texas tonight. This front is actually fairly strong, and has a seasonably cold airmass behind it, so it is expected to move across the cwa fairly quickly tonight. temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degrees pretty quickly behind the front, resulting in a much cooler start to the day tomorrow across much of the region. Isolated to scattered rain showers are possible along the front, but rain chances are expected to be slightly higher behind the front tomorrow afternoon. The front is expected to move southeast towards the gulf coast shortly after sunrise, resulting in temperatures that are steady or possibly slowly falling throughout the day.

With the front in place, the last piece of strong energy aloft within the larger conus rockies upper trough is expected to move east over Texas tomorrow. The large scale forcing for ascent induced by this trough will likely bring the best rain chances to the region tomorrow afternoon. The best rain chances seem to exist southeast of a 700 mb baroclinic zone/front tomorrow. This mid-level front is expected to be located near a line from bonham to fort worth to comanche tomorrow afternoon, so went ahead with 30-50 pops southeast of this line, and 20 pops to the northwest. The forcing for ascent does not look overly strong at this time, however a cross sectional analysis of model mass fields indicates that there is a small area of conditional symmetric (csi) to upright instability present just above the sloping 850-700 mb front tomorrow. From a forcing stand point alone, the pops are probably too high as coverage would likely be isolated at best. However with the potential for the release of cape or csi over the area, went with the higher rain chances assuming the weak lift would result in some Decent displacement due to the stability considerations mentioned above. Rainfall amounts will likely remain less than one tenth of an inch on average. Any thunderstorms that are able to develop would result in very localized higher amounts. Precipitation is expected to come to an end from northwest to southeast Saturday night as the upper level energy moves east spreading large scale forcing for ascent over the region.

Clouds will clear out from west to east during the day on Sunday, resulting in mostly clear skies over the region by late Sunday afternoon. Kept Sunday`s highs a bit on the cool side as morning cloud cover, and a late afternoon shift to south winds will prevent a quick warm up from the cool airmass that builds over the region behind tonight`s front. The strong shortwave trough south of anchorage this afternoon is expected to ride up and over the yukon upper ridge this weekend, and then dig almost due south over the western conus coast early next week. With strong ridging over western canada, and a seasonal, deep, somewhat persistent, upper low over the hudson bay, this upper trough diving south early next week is expected to send a strong arctic airmass south into the plains.

All guidance indicates that this arctic airmass will begin surging south on Monday, moving over the southern plains Monday night into Tuesday morning. But, before the arctic airmass arrives, sunny skies and southwesterly winds will likely result in a seasonably warm and pleasant day across north Texas on Monday. Regarding the arctic airmass, it is expected to move across all of north Texas by Tuesday afternoon, however it May move in quicker than that if the 12 and 18Z NAM model runs verify. There is little doubt that a strong arctic airmass will surge south along the high plains on Monday, the main questions for north central Texas are, how fast will it get here? And how cold will it get?

Medium range models notoriously struggle with the speed of arctic air moving south across the high plains. As a result, think that the faster NAM solution is very likely to verify even though it does not represent the consensus of model guidance very well. As a result, went ahead with a cooler solution regarding high temperatures across north and central Texas on Tuesday. Expect strong cold air advection to be ongoing across the entire cwa by the time the sun rises Tuesday morning. How cold will it get? This represents the more complicated question to evaluate as there are multiple ways that arctic air can be modified as it makes its 1500 mile trek south towards north Texas.

The most efficient ways that the brunt of the arctic air is modified or warmed is through downslope winds, and just basic heating by the sun. Along the entire 1500 mile trek south, the arctic airmass will ride along the lee of the rockies, and any westerly winds that impinge upon this airmass could help to slightly warm the air, reducing the strength of the cold air as it continues south. Also, the farther the air sinks south, the greater the sun angle acting upon the arctic airmass, allowing the sun to simply warm up the air the farther south it moves. One of the best ways to evaluate the the potential for the arctic air to warm up as it heads south is to look at model mid-level wind fields.

Westerly mid-level flow over the rockies will induce downslope winds within the arctic airmass. Westerly winds are also more likely to clear out mid to upper level clouds as the basic response to mid-level air moving over the mountains/higher terrain is to sink. Westerly winds do not guarantee clear skies within the arctic air, but it makes it more likely to get some sunshine on the cold air. At this time, the consensus of guidance indicates that mid-level flow will be very weak, or very weak but easterly, as the arctic air moves south along the plains Monday and Tuesday. Easterly mid-level flow would seem to provide optimal conditions for the airmass to build south without warming up as this would result in enhanced cold air damming along the high plains, and would actually support more clouds over the cold airmass.

With seemingly ideal mid-level flow over the arctic airmass Monday and Tuesday, confidence in a strong arctic airmass building over north central Texas is high. Went ahead and bumped temperatures down several degrees from the previous forecast as a result. Raw model 2-meter temperature fields are likely several degrees to warm across the region once the arctic air is in place, but that is very difficult to prove at this point. GFS and ECMWF 2-meter temperatures have been too warm with regards to forecasting most arctic outbreaks for north central Texas from personal experience. that does not mean they are too warm this time, however pattern recognition and past experiences strongly suggest that the region will be colder than what models are advertising at this time.

As a result, have forecast highs and lows from Tuesday through Thursday night that are on the cold side of all available guidance. It is possible that this is not quite cold enough, however cannot reasonably forecast temperatures colder than what any model shows at this time. There is also ensemble support for siding with the colder side of all guidance in this forecast. The naefs advertises a nearly plus 3 standard deviation for mean sea level pressure over the south plains on Wednesday and Thursday on the naefs standardized anomaly page. Also, every member of the 12Z GFS ensemble system indicated a -3 to -10 deg c 2-meter temperature anomaly over north central Texas on new years day. Felt that this was enough support to side with colder temperatures in this forecast.

With high confidence that cold air will be in place across north central Texas Tuesday through Thursday, the attention in the forecast turns to precipitation chances. Unfortunately 12Z model guidance does not offer much in the way of raising confidence in the precipitation forecast for next week. our precipitation chances are tied to the timing of the anchorage shortwave trough moving east over the region next week. 12Z guidance is faster with this trough, however as we`ve seen the past couple of days, models are changing the timing of this upper trough by 24 to 30 hours per model run. This represents the potential for large errors in any deterministic forecast for precipitation until models can start to agree on timing better.

In short, the faster the upper trough moves over north Texas, the greater our chances of wintry precipitation next week. Models are struggling so much with the timing of this upper trough because nearly all guidance indicates that the upper trough will cut off into a closed low by new year`s eve. The farther removed from the polar jet stream this closed low gets, the slower it will tend to move over the region. With the upper trough closed off, there will be no reinforcing of the arctic airmass over the plains for late next week. This will allow the arctic airmass to begin to modify/warm up quickly, likely not posing a threat for wintry precipitation any more by January 2nd.

So, just like yesterday the forecast for wintry precipitation remains uncertain at this time. The forecast confidence remains similar to yesterday. Confidence in low-level air being cold enough for wintry precipitation/ice is highest on Tuesday and Wednesday, and lowest by January 2nd where we will probably be too warm for any wintry precipitation. confidence in precipitation/lift is lowest on Tuesday and Wednesday, and increases quite a bit on January 2nd, when most 12Z guidance moves the upper trough over north Texas. So it is where the confidence in cold air is moderate, and confidence in precipitation is increasing, Thursday, where our chances for wintry precipitation appear to be maximized at this time. There`s little point getting into precipitation type forecasting this far out as precipitation type is usually determined by weather elements not resolved until 48 hours before a wintry event. However, with a shallow arctic airmass in place, and warm air advection above it mid-week, the large scale pattern supports freezing rain more-so than sleet or snow at this time.

Went ahead and placed a mention of rain or freezing rain back in the forecast for much of the region on Wednesday and Thursday as a result of all that has been discussed regarding this arctic airmass so far. it remains entirely possible that the upper trough will simply be too slow and we will just remain cold and dry across north Texas. while that is possible, there are too many wetter solutions that indicate ice is a real threat to leave it out of the forecast entirely at this time. Most guidance indicates that we will warm above freezing by Friday January 2nd, with widespread rain showers likely assuming the upper trough moves over the region at that time. CavanAugh

[Rgv20]

NWS Forth Worth afternoon discussion..

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF ANCHORAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE YUKON UPPER RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND...AND THEN DIG ALMOST DUE SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER WESTERN
CANADA...AND A SEASONAL...DEEP...SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT...UPPER LOW
OVER THE HUDSON BAY...THIS UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SEND A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN
SURGING SOUTH ON MONDAY...MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT...BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
ARRIVES...SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A SEASONABLY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
MONDAY.

REGARDING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT MAY MOVE IN
QUICKER THAN THAT IF THE 12 AND 18Z NAM MODEL RUNS VERIFY. THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTH
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...THE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ARE...HOW FAST WILL IT GET HERE? AND HOW COLD WILL
IT GET? MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOTORIOUSLY STRUGGLE WITH THE SPEED OF
ARCTIC AIR MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THE FASTER NAM SOLUTION IS VERY LIKELY TO
VERIFY EVEN THOUGH IT DOES NOT REPRESENT THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL
GUIDANCE VERY WELL. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A COOLER
SOLUTION REGARDING HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON TUESDAY. EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES TUESDAY MORNING.

HOW COLD WILL IT GET? THIS REPRESENTS THE MORE COMPLICATED
QUESTION TO EVALUATE AS THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAYS THAT ARCTIC AIR
CAN BE MODIFIED AS IT MAKES ITS 1500 MILE TREK SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH
TEXAS. THE MOST EFFICIENT WAYS THAT THE BRUNT OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS
MODIFIED OR WARMED IS THROUGH DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND JUST BASIC
HEATING BY THE SUN. ALONG THE ENTIRE 1500 MILE TREK SOUTH...THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RIDE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND ANY
WESTERLY WINDS THAT IMPINGE UPON THIS AIRMASS COULD HELP TO
SLIGHTLY WARM THE AIR...REDUCING THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AS
IT CONTINUES SOUTH. ALSO...THE FARTHER THE AIR SINKS SOUTH...THE
GREATER THE SUN ANGLE ACTING UPON THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...ALLOWING
THE SUN TO SIMPLY WARM UP THE AIR THE FARTHER SOUTH IT MOVES.

ONE OF THE BEST WAYS TO EVALUATE THE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ARCTIC
AIR TO WARM UP AS IT HEADS SOUTH IS TO LOOK AT MODEL MID-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS. WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL INDUCE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
MORE LIKELY TO CLEAR OUT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE BASIC
RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TO SINK. WESTERLY WINDS DO NOT GUARANTEE CLEAR SKIES WITHIN THE
ARCTIC AIR...BUT IT MAKES IT MORE LIKELY TO GET SOME SUNSHINE ON
THE COLD AIR. AT THIS TIME...THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK...OR VERY WEAK BUT
EASTERLY...AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE PLAINS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WOULD SEEM TO PROVIDE OPTIMAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE AIRMASS TO BUILD SOUTH WITHOUT WARMING UP AS
THIS WOULD RESULT IN ENHANCED COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS OVER THE COLD
AIRMASS.

WITH SEEMINGLY IDEAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS HIGH. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS A RESULT. RAW
MODEL 2-METER TEMPERATURE FIELDS ARE LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES TO
WARM ACROSS THE REGION ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR IS IN PLACE...BUT THAT
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PROVE AT THIS POINT. GFS AND ECMWF 2-METER
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TOO WARM WITH REGARDS TO FORECASTING MOST
ARCTIC OUTBREAKS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM PERSONAL EXPERIENCE.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE TOO WARM THIS TIME...HOWEVER PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND PAST EXPERIENCES STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THE REGION
WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...HAVE FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT THAT ARE ON THE COLD SIDE OF ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS NOT QUITE COLD
ENOUGH...HOWEVER CANNOT REASONABLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES COLDER
THAN WHAT ANY MODEL SHOWS AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS ALSO ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR SIDING WITH THE COLDER SIDE OF
ALL GUIDANCE IN THIS FORECAST. THE NAEFS ADVERTISES A NEARLY PLUS
3 STANDARD DEVIATION FOR MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALY
PAGE. ALSO...EVERY MEMBER OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM INDICATED
A -3 TO -10 DEG C 2-METER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON NEW YEARS DAY. FELT THAT THIS WAS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO SIDE
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST.

WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ATTENTION IN THE
FORECAST TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

UNFORTUNATELY 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAISING CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE ANCHORAGE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE REGION NEXT WEEK. 12Z
GUIDANCE IS FASTER WITH THIS TROUGH...HOWEVER AS WE`VE SEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS ARE CHANGING THE TIMING OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH BY 24 TO 30 HOURS PER MODEL RUN. THIS REPRESENTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE ERRORS IN ANY DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION UNTIL MODELS CAN START TO AGREE ON TIMING BETTER.

IN SHORT...THE FASTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTH
TEXAS...THE GREATER OUR CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.

MODELS ARE STRUGGLING SO MUCH WITH THE TIMING OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
BECAUSE NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CUT OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NEW YEAR`S EVE. THE FARTHER REMOVED
FROM THE POLAR JET STREAM THIS CLOSED LOW GETS...THE SLOWER IT
WILL TEND TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSED
OFF...THERE WILL BE NO REINFORCING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE
PLAINS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO
BEGIN TO MODIFY/WARM UP QUICKLY...LIKELY NOT POSING A THREAT FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ANY MORE BY JANUARY 2ND. SO...JUST LIKE
YESTERDAY THE FORECAST FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN LOW-LEVEL AIR BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION/ICE IS
HIGHEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOWEST BY JANUARY 2ND WHERE
WE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION/LIFT IS LOWEST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND INCREASES QUITE A BIT ON JANUARY 2ND...WHEN MOST
12Z GUIDANCE MOVES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTH TEXAS. SO IT IS
WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN COLD AIR IS MODERATE...AND CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING...THURSDAY...WHERE OUR CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED AT THIS TIME.

THERE`S LITTLE POINT GETTING INTO PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTING
THIS FAR OUT AS PRECIPITATION TYPE IS USUALLY DETERMINED BY
WEATHER ELEMENTS NOT RESOLVED UNTIL 48 HOURS BEFORE A WINTRY
EVENT. HOWEVER...WITH A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ABOVE IT MID-WEEK...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUPPORTS
FREEZING RAIN MORE-SO THAN SLEET OR SNOW AT THIS TIME. WENT AHEAD
AND PLACED A MENTION OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN BACK IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF
ALL THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED REGARDING THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS SO FAR.
IT REMAINS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SIMPLY BE
TOO SLOW AND WE WILL JUST REMAIN COLD AND DRY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
WHILE THAT IS POSSIBLE...THERE ARE TOO MANY WETTER SOLUTIONS THAT
INDICATE ICE IS A REAL THREAT TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
ENTIRELY AT THIS TIME.

MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY FRIDAY
JANUARY 2ND...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY ASSUMING THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AT THAT TIME.

CAVANAUGH

&&

[Lagreeneyes03]

Looking At all the forecasts I do find it veryvery hard to believe that it will be back in the 60's next weekend. It Seemed this cold shot was going to be pretty lengthy.

[somethingfunny]

Are we witnessing a civil war in the Fort Worth office? I know who I'm siding with... (it's the PWC, and its' patron saints wxman57 and Mr Cavanaugh) These dueling morning/afternoon AFDs sure are entertaining though

[dhweather]

THE HOUNDS OF WINTER ARE ABOUT TO RELEASED



But not all in attendance concurred with the frosty, icy winter lovefest. Known critic, dhweather, scoffed at the PWC forecast and said it was full of hyperbole.

“Oh, I’ve heard this before from them. Arctic air … snow and ice in Texas … winter is coming … blah, blah, blah. What’s next, a Cat 5 in the Gulf? I’ll believe when it’s snow or icing down on top of me in Heath, Texas.”

The PWC ended the press event with an encouragement for weather enthusiasts in Texas to keep a close eye on the weather and a close eye on Storm2K as new information will likely be presented as we get closer to New Year’s Eve. They also indicated that Champ the Charger is gassed up, has snow tires, new wiper blades, and is ready to chase wintry weather in Austin, and that extra supplies of Grey Goose are being shipped in to the PWC office to aid PWC mets with their forecasts.

Funniest thing I've read in a while.


Hey, look, there's a cat 5 in the gulf!

[Ralph's Weather]

Are we witnessing a civil war in the Fort Worth office? I know who I'm siding with... (it's the PWC, and its' patron saints wxman57 and Mr Cavanaugh) These dueling morning/afternoon AFDs sure are entertaining though

It sure is. He is a great forecaster and with him on board it makes it even easier to be confident that the models are out to lunch. The NAM sure seems to be the best in this timeframe.

[gboudx]

But not all in attendance concurred with the frosty, icy winter lovefest. Known critic dhweather, scoffed at the PWC forecast and said it was full of hyperbole.

I’ll believe when it’s snow or icing down on top of me in Heath, Texas.”



Funniest thing I've read in a while.


Hey, look, there's a cat 5 in the gulf!

Maybe it's a Rockwall county thing but I'm with dh; I'll believe it when I feel it falling on my head.

From Steve McCauley:

Data continue to suggest there could be a light wintry mix for western areas of north Texas Wednesday, but there remains nothing in the data to suggest this will be significant. But since precipitation totals - whether it is rain or snow or sleet or freezing rain - cannot usually be accurately predicted more than 24 hours out, it is something to keep an eye on but nothing to get concerned about at this time.
And for those of you who have been asking...this is NOT a McFarland Signature, so do not expect unusually frigid temps and a prolonged cold snap. You know me...if it was a McFarland, I would have posted maps 10 days ago I may not even have to wrap my palm trees with this one!

[Lagreeneyes03]

What do ya'll think about this? A FB post from a Metroplex weather blogger, mentioning winter precip for tomorrow.

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE: 610PM FRI DEC 26 2014 - NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS - DFW METROPLEX - At 6pm a strong cold front was pushing through the Texas panhandle and taking aim at much of Texas. Above the surface an approaching upper level storm system in conjunction with surface and near surface Gulf moisture and the approaching front will combine to produce precipitation across the Metroplex starting around midnight. By 6am Saturday morning precipitation will continue across all of North Central Texas, but 'upslope' (or moisture riding up and over the rapidly moving cold air at the surface will combine with even colder temperatures at higher levels of the atmosphere to produce an area of freezing rain transitioning rapidly to snow. This area wintery precipitation at 6am Saturday morning should be in Northwestern North Texas along a line from East of Childress to South of Lubbock to near Midland. This line will progress East through the day. Very cold temperatures in the 20's will move into the DFW metroplex by Saturday night. The real question becomes how much moisture will overrun and be in place across the metroplex after the sub-freezing temperatures arrive. Due to the upper level make-up of the atmosphere and what is known as a "dendrite zone" It is my opinion we will see some snow across the DFW Metro tomorrow (Saturday) especially in the afternoon afternoon hours just prior to the precipitation ending. The greatest chance of snow will be along and Northwest of a Sherman to DFW Airport to Fort Worth to Stephenville line. This could rapidly change with the latest computer model data due in the next few hours. I will be watching this closely and issue updates as needed later tonight and early Saturday morning, THIS IS NOT AN NWS FORECAST.

[gpsnowman]

Yeah, this current front coming through Texas has been lost in our conversation due to the arctic front later next week. Now, I have no idea who the blogger is or if snow is remotely possible but maybe the models are underestimating this one as well. During the 4 o'clock weather report, Amarillo was at freezing with a mixed bag of precip in the Panhandle of Texas. I was just looking forward to some rain this weekend before the cold really gets here.

[TheProfessor]

I mentioned to keep an eye out for Saturday earlier, but even I stopped paying attention to it.

[Ntxwx]

What do ya'll think about this? A FB post from a Metroplex weather blogger, mentioning winter precip for tomorrow.

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE: 610PM FRI DEC 26 2014 - NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS - DFW METROPLEX - At 6pm a strong cold front was pushing through the Texas panhandle and taking aim at much of Texas. Above the surface an approaching upper level storm system in conjunction with surface and near surface Gulf moisture and the approaching front will combine to produce precipitation across the Metroplex starting around midnight. By 6am Saturday morning precipitation will continue across all of North Central Texas, but 'upslope' (or moisture riding up and over the rapidly moving cold air at the surface will combine with even colder temperatures at higher levels of the atmosphere to produce an area of freezing rain transitioning rapidly to snow. This area wintery precipitation at 6am Saturday morning should be in Northwestern North Texas along a line from East of Childress to South of Lubbock to near Midland. This line will progress East through the day. Very cold temperatures in the 20's will move into the DFW metroplex by Saturday night. The real question becomes how much moisture will overrun and be in place across the metroplex after the sub-freezing temperatures arrive. Due to the upper level make-up of the atmosphere and what is known as a "dendrite zone" It is my opinion we will see some snow across the DFW Metro tomorrow (Saturday) especially in the afternoon afternoon hours just prior to the precipitation ending. The greatest chance of snow will be along and Northwest of a Sherman to DFW Airport to Fort Worth to Stephenville line. This could rapidly change with the latest computer model data due in the next few hours. I will be watching this closely and issue updates as needed later tonight and early Saturday morning, THIS IS NOT AN NWS FORECAST.

Who is this?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

What do ya'll think about this? A FB post from a Metroplex weather blogger, mentioning winter precip for tomorrow.

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE: 610PM FRI DEC 26 2014 - NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS - DFW METROPLEX - At 6pm a strong cold front was pushing through the Texas panhandle and taking aim at much of Texas. Above the surface an approaching upper level storm system in conjunction with surface and near surface Gulf moisture and the approaching front will combine to produce precipitation across the Metroplex starting around midnight. By 6am Saturday morning precipitation will continue across all of North Central Texas, but 'upslope' (or moisture riding up and over the rapidly moving cold air at the surface will combine with even colder temperatures at higher levels of the atmosphere to produce an area of freezing rain transitioning rapidly to snow. This area wintery precipitation at 6am Saturday morning should be in Northwestern North Texas along a line from East of Childress to South of Lubbock to near Midland. This line will progress East through the day. Very cold temperatures in the 20's will move into the DFW metroplex by Saturday night. The real question becomes how much moisture will overrun and be in place across the metroplex after the sub-freezing temperatures arrive. Due to the upper level make-up of the atmosphere and what is known as a "dendrite zone" It is my opinion we will see some snow across the DFW Metro tomorrow (Saturday) especially in the afternoon afternoon hours just prior to the precipitation ending. The greatest chance of snow will be along and Northwest of a Sherman to DFW Airport to Fort Worth to Stephenville line. This could rapidly change with the latest computer model data due in the next few hours. I will be watching this closely and issue updates as needed later tonight and early Saturday morning, THIS IS NOT AN NWS FORECAST.

Who is this?

It does appear the RAP and HRRR may be hinting at this..