Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD MOSTLY OVER THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR
THIS MORNING. A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. THIS DRY AIR IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY. A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER...THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE. AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...A
SHARP DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED .
THE CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TDY XCP MVFR CIG IN ISOLD SHRA TISX/TNCM/TKPK. MVFR
IN FEW SHRA TONITE/THU FM TJSJ TO LEEWARDS. WIND E 12-20 KT TO FL050
THEN NE 15-27KT TO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 71 / 10 30 30 30
STT 85 74 86 76 / 10 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH
OF SAINT CROIX. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH COASTAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

A FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING UNDER BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER...RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AS A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
SOME PM SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE.

AS THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES AWAY LATE FRIDAY...A SHARP DECREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. QUICK PASSING
-SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF TISX AND TKPK POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL REACH OUR ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SURF CONDITIONS...RIP CURRENTS
AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES OF
LOCAL ISLANDS. MARINERS AND BEACH GOERS STAY TUNED ABOUT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 71 84 / 30 30 30 20
STT 74 85 76 85 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Merry Christmas to all the friends of the Caribbean and Central America.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS DRY AIR IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. AS THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...A SHARP DECREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED . THE CHANCE OF
PASSING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA THRU FRI BUT MOST WL NOT LWR COND FM
VFR. WIND BLO FL100 ENE 12-20 KT THRU THU...FL100-FL200 NE 20-35 KT
BCMG ENE 20-25 KT TONITE/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL STILL
EXPECTED FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DETERIORATING THE
MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 84 71 / 30 30 20 20
STT 85 74 85 73 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
246 PM AST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH FRI THEN GRADUALLY
ERODE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
HELP AMPLIFY THE CNTRL ATLC LONGWAVE TROUGH. A CDFNT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
995 MB LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
STRENGTHEN.

A NEW AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON FRI OVR THE CNTRL
ATLC ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
WITH SPEEDS TO 20 KT BECOMING QUITE COMMON. H5 RIDGE THEN BECOMES
DOMINANT WX FEATURE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHILE AT H25 TROF
AXIS SHIFTS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA MAINTAINING
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVR THE AREA WITH COOLER AND DRYER THAN
NORMAL WX CONDITIONS TO START THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WOTH VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY. A CDFNT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BKN040 CIGS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT. LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH A CDFNT WILL
BEGIN TO REACH THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS EARLY SAT AND PEAK LATE
SUN. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 84 71 / 30 20 20 10
STT 85 74 85 73 / 30 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT TODAY
AT ABOUT 1.3 INCHES OF P-WAT BUT DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN LATE TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS MEANS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN
THE MORNING THEN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR LONG LASTING AS THE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SATURDAY...IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY NICE DAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR
APPROACHING WILL LIKELY KEEP FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOT BEEN
THAT CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...SO POPS WERE KEPT A BIT
CONSERVATIVE UNTIL MORE CONSISTENCY IS SEEN IN THE TIMING.

FROM MONDAY ON...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL NOT BE SO GOOD THIS WEEKEND. DETAILS
IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ACT SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IS CAUSING VCSH ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS...THIS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 26/14Z.
AFTERNOON SHRA MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TJMZ BUT CONDITIONS OVERALL
SHOULD BE VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AT AROUND 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START DETERIORATING
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS AND
CAUSE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE WAS
RATHER BULLISH IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS BUT WE DECIDED TO CAP THE WAVE
HEIGHTS AT 8 FEET STARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS BECAUSE THE
SWELL HAS YET TO PASS THROUGH ANY OF THE BUOYS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MODEL
GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AFTER
CONSIDERING THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GO INTO EFFECT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 83 71 / 20 10 20 30
STT 85 73 85 74 / 20 10 30 30

[Gustywind]

Merry Christmas to all the friends of the Caribbean and Central America.

A little late for me but Merry Christmas to you Cycloneye. I wish you al the very best and surely more as you're our carib gift everyday on this forum

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS LOSING ITS GRIP OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY YIELDING NICE WEATHER. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE
LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...CLEAR SKIES AND WET
GROUND. A CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON BRINGING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH SCT-NMRS SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE CNTRL CORDILLERA. THINGS DRY OUT LATE SUN NIGHT THRU
TUE UNDER BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WED BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE THEN STRENGTHENS TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ESTABLISHING
OVER THE AREA DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT FRI JAN 02 - SAT JAN 03. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE WX CONDITIONS AROUND CAMP SANTIAGO
WHERE SIG DRYING HAS BEEN OCCURRING SINCE EARLY DEC.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THRU SAT. THEN...COLD FRONT REACHES THE FLYING AREA FM THE NORTH
ON SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SHRA. ENE WINDS 10-15
KT BECOMING NE SAT AND INCREASING 15-20 KT SUN.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE ATLC
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND PEAK SAT NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
MON AND TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN STRENGTHEN SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH SURF AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 82 / 0 20 70 70
STT 75 85 75 84 / 0 30 70 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN INTO THE
TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK...
BECOMING STRONG LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS
THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY WINDS WERE LIGHT
WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL TODAY UNDER BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. A WETTER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...WITH BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED AS SOON AS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN USVI AND THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SPREADING ACROSS ST CROIX...THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE CORDILLERA SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... THEREFORE
THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IS
ANTICIPATED.

A SHARP DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
VALUES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH TIGHTENS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU
LATE TONIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FLYING AREA FM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHRA ACTIVITY WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE ATLC
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PEAK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BASED ON LATEST BUOYS OBSERVATIONS...
STILL EXPECT BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 14 AND 16 FEET. THEREFORE
COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA STILL MARGINAL. HOWEVER...HIGH SURF AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 82 72 / 10 70 70 50
STT 85 74 85 74 / 10 70 70 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CDFNT ALONG 22N BECOMING FRACTURED BUT STRENGTHENING
WINDS BEHIND IT AND INCREASING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT
IN SCT-NMRS SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN THU AFTERNOON
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS BECMING BKN040 AFTER 03Z SUN IN SHRA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN EVENING. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING MON. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SUN AND MON WITH NE WINDS 15G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT TONIGHT IN NE SWELLS. SWELLS
SUBSIDE MON-WED. WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH 12Z TUE THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 72 83 / 30 70 50 20
STT 74 85 74 85 / 30 60 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT REMNANT NORTH OF PR/USVI APPROACHING
ISLANDS AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS BY EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE IMAGES AND
GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE...WILL REACH NORTH SHORES AROUND SUNRISE.
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MODEL HAVE THE MOISTURE LIMITED TO UNDER 650
MB. THAT APPEARS ACCURATE BASED ON IMPLIED CLOUD TOPS FROM IR
IMAGES. BUT THINK GFS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE LOW
ABOVE 800 MB. MOISTURE TO THIS DEPTH IMPLIES QUITE A FEW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AFTER 600 AM FOR NORTH HALF OF PR AND INTO ST.
THOMAS/VIEQUES/CULEBRA. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS THEM SPACED OUT
PRETTY WELL AND MOVING QUICKLY. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT
LAST VERY LONG OR BE HEAVY. UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL SAG BY AFTERNOON LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THEN. SUNSHINE ON LAND SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME CONVECTION BUT THE MOISTURE IS PRETTY
SHALLOW ANYWAY SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. FRONTOLYSIS
IS TURNING THIS FRONT INTO A BUNCH OF MINOR EASTERLY WAVES TO
PASS OVER PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST ONE
PROBABLY ARRIVES TONIGHT. GOOD CONVERGENCE AT 1000-850 MB AS
NOTED ON GFS AT 06Z TONIGHT DEPICTED BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND USVI.
THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED ZONE FOR NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND
HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FLYING AREA...CREATING
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS BETWEEN AFT 28/12Z MAINLY AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TNCM...
FOLLOWED BY SCT SHRA ACROSS MOST THE WHOLE AREA LATE IN THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. INCLEMENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS PEAK TODAY BUT WILL TAKE
SEVERAL DAYS TO DIMINISH. WINDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY WHICH
WILL MAKE THE WAVE GROUPS MORE COMPLEX BETWEEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVE AND SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 70 82 71 / 80 60 50 50
STT 84 74 87 76 / 90 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN...MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY...GENERATING A FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. VARIABLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND PR. THE MOST
FREQUENT SHOWERS AFFECTED THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON THE CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
MOVED OVER ST. CROIX AND THE SOUTHERN AND WEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT TO MODERATE...THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS SO FAR TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT...THE TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST...RESULTING IN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. REMNANT OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A EASTERLY PERTURBATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE PR/USVI BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS...RESULTING IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN...MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE YEAR. ALTHOUGH...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL MOST
OF THE WEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHRA...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NE WINDS OF 10-20 KT ARE
EXPECTED BELOW FL100 THRU MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH NE SWELL HAS PEAKED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET OR GREATER ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PR AND USVI. AS A RESULT...A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COASTLINES OF PR
AND USVI THROUGH 10 PM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 82 71 84 / 60 60 50 20
STT 74 87 76 86 / 60 60 50 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL TILT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THERE UNTIL SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN
SEA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS THIS WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
GRADUALLY YIELD TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LATE THIS WEEK. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN A WIDE SWATH
FROM AFRICA TO THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10
DAYS. SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED AROUND PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT HAVE NOT CROSSED THE ISLANDS
UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. RADAR SHOWED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
SMALL...BRIEF SHOWERS ENTERING NAGUABO...CEIBA AND FAJARDO AROUND
5 AM AST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT MID
MORNING MIXING WILL CAUSE MOST SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
A BAND OF BETTER MOISTURE...THOUGH STILL SHALLOW...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM 29/18Z TO 30/05Z...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL ONLY BE SEEN ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE GFS SHOWED A CORRESPONDING SPIKE
OF MOISTURE UP TO 10 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

BRIEF BREAKS IN THIS MODEST MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CARRY THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
10 DAYS. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED BELOW 7 TO 9 THOUSAND
FEET. MID LEVELS WILL RARELY SEE MORE THAN 20 PERCENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THIS WEEK AND RH WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT MOST OF THE
TIME. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS BRIEF AND ACCUMULATIONS MINOR AS THE
LIFTED INDEX REMAINS ABOVE MINUS 2.5 THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF THE
NEW YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 29/12Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TIST...TJSJ...AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FEET
OVERNIGHT...BUT WAVE REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN BELOW 7 FEET. PERIODS ARE LONG--UP TO 14 SECONDS--BUT AS WINDS
CONTINUE SHORT PERIOD ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 7 FEET IN THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA UNTIL FRIDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 72 / 50 50 30 20
STT 83 76 83 75 / 60 60 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING THE LOCAL
AREA UNDER EASTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...TILTING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...GREATLY DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE IS PRESENT BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
A PATCH OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE MAY MOVE IN THIS
EVENING...CAUSING SOME PASSING SHOWERS AT BEST.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR WITH ONLY A FEW PATCHES
OF MOISTURE CAUSING NIGHTTIME AND MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PR BRIEFLY.

LATE IN THE WORKWEEK...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THIS MAY CAUSE CHOPPY...CONFUSED AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS AT TAF SITES THIS AFT. SOME VCSH STILL
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 29/20Z AT TJMZ...TJBQ. WINDS GENERALLY FROM
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND UP TO 7
FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS. THE NEARSHORE WATERS
JUST WEST OF PR WILL HAVE SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUBSIDING SLOWLY THROUGH
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATE THIS WORKWEEK...THE INCREASE IN WINDS MAY
CAUSE HAZARDOUS AND CONFUSED SEAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 71 84 / 50 30 20 30
STT 75 86 76 84 / 60 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE DEC 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
TILTS EASTWARD UNTIL IT IS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND OUT OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER AND JUST NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY
DRY EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND DRIVES MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS FROM AFRICA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A GENERAL
DRYING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY...BUT PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS BROUGHT LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WERE
SEEN NEAR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE TRACE AMOUNTS
WERE OBSERVED. SAN LORENZO HAD 0.35 INCHES OVERNIGHT WHILE YABUCOA
HAD 0.25 INCHES. SATELLITE AND MIMIC IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INTO THE AREA AFTER 8 AM AST
TODAY AND IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP AFTERWARD ISOLATED. THE NEXT
PEAKS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WILL BE ON NEW
YEAR`S EVE AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT MOISTURE WILL REACH 600 MB AT 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 5 TO 9 THOUSAND FEET.
AFTER WEDNESDAY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS UP TO 33 KNOTS AT 850 MB 04/00Z.
BECAUSE THE LIFTED INDEX IS CLOSE TO ZERO AT THAT TIME WITH
OCCASIONAL INVERSIONS NEAR THAT LEVEL...WINDS ARE NOT WELL
COUPLED...AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAND AT LEAST.

THE GENERAL TRADE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOIST AND
HENCE TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT...BUT WILL BE
MOST NOTICEABLE ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AT JSJ/IST. AFT 30/12Z...EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF SHRA.
ADDITIONALLY...AFT 30/17Z ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR
AND THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 HAVE JUST NOW DROPPED BELOW 7 FEET
AND WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
DURING THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE
LATEST PULSE MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM AST FOR SOME OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNTIL THE NEXT SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 72 86 71 / 30 30 30 40
STT 88 77 88 75 / 20 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST TUE DEC 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TILT EASTWARD
UNTIL IT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MODERATE
TO TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...MAINLY PASSING
SHOWERS IN THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND. MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS WERE OBSERVED AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
AROUND THE 1.3 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. SO MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING SHOWERS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOWARDS FRIDAY
AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL DETERIORATE THE MARINE
CONDITIONS BUT THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN AND IMPACT SHOULD
REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED RECENTLY...PASSING SHOWERS
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT TAF LOCAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JMZ AND JBQ. EASTERLY
WINDS 15 TO 15 KNOTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AND MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
IMPROVING. HOWEVER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET ON WEDNESDAY
BUT WINDS MAY STILL BE OVER 18 KNOTS...SO SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. FOR FRIDAY ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS
WILL CAUSE CHOPPY SEAS AND DETERIORATE MAINE CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 83 / 30 30 40 40
STT 75 86 76 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST WED DEC 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A TROUGH WILL OCCASIONALLY EXTEND OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL MOVE
TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...GENERALLY HIGHER PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL
MAINTAIN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST AREAS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO HAD LESS RAINFALL
THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT ONE AREA IN HUMACAO HAD OVER 1 INCH AS
SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW STRENGTHENED UPON CROSSING THE
COAST AND MOVING UP-SLOPE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED AND LEFT
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM SAN JUAN TO
GUAYAMA WERE DRY. BOTH MIMIC AND THE GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY AFTER 1 AM
AST...AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH FRIDAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE
MOISTENING OF THE MID LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AS WIND
INCREASE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES TREND LOWER. IT WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE QUICKLY PASSING
SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THE NEXT 6 DAYS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
RELIABLE AND LESS FREQUENT IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

LITTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER OR LOWER LEVEL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. HENCE THE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FOUR
DAYS...LEAVING THE PRINCIPLE SOURCE OF AIR AT THE LOWEST LEVELS
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO BE THE MOIST SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO OUR EAST NORTHEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER
NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF
SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS OVER THE LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS IN PASSING SHRA. VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TJPS THRU MID
MORNING. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10-20 KT
BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT AS
WINDS INCREASE EXPECT SEAS TO RETURN TO 7 FEET OR MORE BEGINNING
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE FORECASTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING ACTUAL SUSTAINED VALUES TO BE CLOSER TO THE
BOTTOM OF THE RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOST EXPOSED LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY SINCE 850 MB
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 33 KNOTS. A RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY LEAVE THIS LAYER MOSTLY UNCOUPLED WITH
THE SURFACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 71 / 30 30 40 40
STT 86 75 86 76 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

To our friends in the Caribbean and in Central America have a happy new year 2015.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST WED DEC 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY THROUGH FRIDAY OF
NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE MODERATE TO TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND...ESPECIALLY PASSING
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PR AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON...ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WERE OBSERVED AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
AROUND THE 1.3 INCH RANGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE. SO MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA TOWARDS FRIDAY
AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE OTHER EXPECTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL DETERIORATE THE MARINE
CONDITIONS BUT THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN AND IMPACT SHOULD
REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED RECENTLY...PASSING SHOWERS
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR...WITH SHORT PDS OF VCSH AT TAF LOCAL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
JMZ AND JBQ IN AFT SHWRS. EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...BUT AS WINDS INCREASE EXPECT SEAS TO RETURN TO 7 FEET
OR MORE BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH WINDS POSSIBLE UP TO 20 KNOTS. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST EXPOSED
LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY SINCE 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 33 KNOTS. A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY
LEAVE THIS LAYER MOSTLY UNCOUPLED WITH THE SURFACE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 73 84 / 30 40 40 50
STT 75 86 77 86 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST THU JAN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND DIG INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP FLOW NORTHERLY UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL
BECOME CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS BY SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT
MID LEVELS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE MID LEVELS
CONTINUE VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND
BUILD NOW THROUGH SUNDAY CAUSING A GRADUAL BUT SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS. WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE TO CURRENT
LEVELS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE MUCH FEWER THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND INLAND OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO WITH SLIGHT OR NO ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS...BUT
OVER ONE QUARTER INCH IN SMALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE LUQUILLO RANGE. MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WERE NOT REPORTED IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAN JUAN TO GUAYAMA.
THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED A WIDE AREA OF MODEST MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. NEVERTHELESS THE BEST
MOISTURE OF THE WEEK ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
IMMEDIATE DRYING AND ANOTHER PEAK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SLOTS OF
DRIER AIR WILL OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT IN GENERAL FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CARRY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WITH VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND MOST OF NEXT. EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO WHICH WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL GENERALLY BE 6 TO 9
THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CIGS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD AND
USVI TERMINALS IN PASSING SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL200 THRU FRI MORNING...THEN WIND SPEEDS INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY TO 20-30 KT AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE ENTIRELY BELOW 6 FEET AT THE PRESENT MOMENT
FROM AS FAR OUT AS BUOY 41043 TO THE LOCAL INNER WATERS.
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BRING A FEW LOCAL AREAS TO 6
FEET...BUT MOST INCREASES IN SEAS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER NOON
FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY NOON TO
SATURDAY NOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED EITHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR LATER THAT EVENING FOR
MOST WATERS EXCEPT THOSE PROTECTED FROM EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 72 / 30 40 60 50
STT 84 77 86 76 / 20 20 40 40