WPAC: JANGMI - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

They changed the invest number but this is what was 98W.

99W INVEST 141225 1800 7.0N 135.2E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

99W INVEST 141226 0000 7.9N 134.5E WPAC 15 1010

From latitude 7.0 to 7.9...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It really lacks convection and a well-defined CDO. It's structure and circulation is evident but it's basically, naked.

[dexterlabio]

the models are not anymore showing a moderate tropical storm or a typhoon out of this.... looks like this system is now properly initialized and saw the conditions nearby as not that conducive...


still a slow-tracker TD bears watching especially for low-lying areas...

[euro6208]

Looks like it's deactivated again...06Z BT hasn't come out...

[euro6208]

oh 12Z came out instead...

99W INVEST 141226 1200 8.5N 132.4E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

The reliable EURO doesn't develop this until it reaches the South China Sea where it maxes out at tropical storm strength and weakens south of Vietnam...

[cycloneye]

99W INVEST 141226 1800 5.2N 133.2E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

Looks like Vietnam may need to watch this one...Models have this as a full blown typhoon by then...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looks like Vietnam may need to watch this one...Models have this as a full blown typhoon by then...

Like Lingling 2001?

It hit the Philippines as a tropical storm then rapidly intensified to a typhoon then to a category 4 over the south China sea then landfall over Vietnam as a cat 1/2...

[euro6208]

00Z GFS brings this down to 976 mb in the South China Sea and weakening slowly till landfall over Vietnam...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Now officially a tropical depression per JMA

[euro6208]

LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 131.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN
FLANKS. A 270126Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD LLCC WITH ENHANCED
EASTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

Dvorak numbers now 1.0.

[Alyono]

Looks a bit like Washi

[cycloneye]

First warning by JMA.

TD
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 27 December 2014
<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°55'(7.9°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N8°05'(8.1°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N8°20'(8.3°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm expecting a year crosser from this, like Soulik 2001. I also will not be surprised if there will be TS Jangmi by tomorrow; also not surprised if we see STS Jangmi before or on New Year's Day. 23W-to-be found a sweet spot of decreasing shear.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking more like Son-Tinh 2012. Think this will follow its track and POSSIBLY INTENSITY.

[euro6208]

Looks like Vietnam may need to watch this one...Models have this as a full blown typhoon by then...

Like Lingling 2001?

It hit the Philippines as a tropical storm then rapidly intensified to a typhoon then to a category 4 over the south China sea then landfall over Vietnam as a cat 1/2...

Well Lingling occurred in November and we are in the winter months where conditions are less favorable...It could happen but never say never in the WPAC

[xtyphooncyclonex]

99W caused some heavy squalls here over the city of Cebu.

Down south, a tornado ravished Oroquieta